Quote:
Originally Posted by emobe
It's just too good not to 3-bet.
If the nit has a range of AA-JJ,AKs-AQs,KQs,AKo-AQo you still have equity of 53% for AKs and 51% for AKo
The thing you really forget that makes it compelling is when they fold. And having the A and the K makes it more likely that they fold.
So let’s say that’s the nit’s continue range. For the sake of argument, let’s say he 4 bets exclusively KK+ and we can just fold (make our game tree easier). Calls all of those other hands.
And let’s say nit raises and folds to a 3 bet with ATs, AJs, AJo, KJs, KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs, 77-TT. This is far from a nitty range IMO, but I think it’s the kind of range I’d expect a competent player to show up with up front.
WITHOUT CARD REMOVAL:
A range of 77+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+ is 48 + 16 + 12 + 8 + 4 + 36 = 124 combos.
Against 3 bets he
4 bets: 12 combos
Calls: 48 combos
Folds: 64 combos
WITH CARD REMOVAL
We reduce card combos to 99
Against 3 bets he
4 bets: 6 combos
Calls: 36 combos
Folds: 57 combos
So if we shut our eyes and 3 bet randomly (assuming opponent doesn’t know that), he will fold 64/124 ~ 51.6% of the time. But given what we hold, he will fold 57/99 ~ 57.6% of the time.
So not only do we still have good equity when called (in this case as a slight favorite) and position throughout the hand, but we generate more folds and can win the blinds + his open raise more often. And if someone opens to 3 bb, going from 51.6% to 57.6% chance to take 4.5 bb uncontested is great.
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