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Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread

10-23-2008 , 01:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bleep69
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Trying again...

If it works, how come my red and blue lines seem the exact opposite to everyone else's?

Am I reading it right?
Yeah, you are reading it right. To simplify, the reason your graph is the reverse of most everybody else's is because you play a loose aggressive game even at FR, whereas most of the other posters are playing TAg.

Basically, TAgs wait for decent hands or decent positions and win hands based on the strength of their cards, and, on the strength of their position. So they tend to have small wins and losses in non-sd hands, and make their big wins in sd hands most of the time (understand that I am talking general tendencies here, not hard and fast truths).

Loose aggressive players tend to focus more on using sheer aggression to win a lot of small pots (red line winnings) and tend to get all in or build big pots with vulnerable hands--they shove or bet a lot of the time expecting their opponent to fold--so their "mistakes" show up as big dips in their showdown line

Quote:
Originally Posted by bleep69
Sorry, here's the rest...



Any thoughts?

I've had a fairly crap run, imo, recently, being outdrawn more than my fair share, if that makes any difference.

Thanks!
I hate to tell you, but I really don't see anything in your stats that looks like a leak to me in any significant sense.

You are going to have to go back through your showdown hands and look for spots where you were inappropriately aggressive and lost a big pot. Maybe you should have slowed down because the villain was a nit who was calling you down, maybe your draw wasn't big enough to be pushing as hard as you pushed it. Stuff like that. Really focus on your post flop play in the big hands.

Your stats look solid for a LAg; it is possible that running bad has been the difference between your win rate and the win rate you would like to see.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-23-2008 , 01:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
I'm sort of going to skip over your 6 max v. FR questions by saying two things:

1. as you make the switch, just keep in mind that perceived ranges are tighter in FR than in 6 max, and actual ranges are usually tighter, too. Having the nuts becomes more important in really big pots and when facing a lot of aggression.

2. If you are a DC member, you really have to watch episodes 4 and 5 of the coaching tree series. These vids contain brilliant discussion of the differences between 6 max and FR. If you are not a member, consider becoming a member to watch these videos--they are that important to making the switch.

as for your stats: I could nit pick them a bit, but really, the thing that jumps out at me is the lack of respect you are showing for positional awareness in the FR game. Your VPIP/PFR in EP is almost identical to your average vpip/pfr, for example. You need to completely rethink your preflop strategy for the FR game.

For somebody who plays 12/9 or 12/8, what we usually see is that the person is playing 6/6 or so from ep, maybe opening up to 7/7 or 8/8 from mp1 but then he really starts to open up and play, say, 13/10 in middle position and an average of about 20/15 from the 3 late positions.

These are not stats to aim for, they are stats that result from thinking of position and initiative as being as important as your cards, and doing certain things:

1. only playing strong hands when you are out of position.
2. isolating limpers by raising IP with a wide range.
3. raising first in, pretty much always.
4. 3 betting aggressively.
Thank you very much. Yes, I've watched all episodes of coaching tree and now watching bottomset's videos at FR. I'm trying to incorporate more isolating in my game. And I obv 3bet only AK, QQ+
And btw I was asking not about the transition from 6max. I was wondering about Pot limit tables of FR and No limit tables. My results at pot limit tables suck, I don't know why Thanks anyway
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-23-2008 , 02:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Limperschmit



These are my first 6.5k hands I have ever played of online poker. I am winning, but it is only 2NL so I know i am playing no where near good. Although this sample size is small there should be enough to get a half decent analysis. Thanks.

Given that these are your first 6000 hands online, your stats are AWESOME. Major congratulations.

In truth, you do not need to change a thing. The game you play, together with the improvement in hand reading skills that comes with experience, ought to take you al the way through NL $50 as a winning player without difficulty.

Seriously, these are really solid stats.

The thing that bugs me, though, is that your W$WSF, WTSD% and W$SD are all a bit low, and I am really unsure of how that can be the case. Basically these stats are saying: "He doesn't win enough of the time he sees the flop, he doesn't go to showdown enough, and when he does go to showdown he is losing too often."

I'm really reluctant to tinker with your game when the easiest explanation for the conflicting signals I am getting from those three stats is that you are running bad.

I know you were looking for a half decent analysis, so I am sorry to disappoint you. My opinion is for you to keep doing exactly what you are doing for another 5 or 6000 hands and lets see where these stats are at the end of that time.

Move up as soon as your bank roll supports a move (take a shot at around 15 buy ins for the next level, move for good at 20)--your game is clearly going to be a winner at $5 or $10.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-23-2008 , 03:53 PM
Thanks for that review. I am not sure why my W$SD is so low. My bankroll is exactly at 15(100BB)BI at 5NL. Except on PokerStars you can buy in at 200BB, so i was wondering if I should buy in for 200BB or just buy in for 100BB cause that is what my bankroll supports?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-23-2008 , 06:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Limperschmit
Thanks for that review. I am not sure why my W$SD is so low. My bankroll is exactly at 15(100BB)BI at 5NL. Except on PokerStars you can buy in at 200BB, so i was wondering if I should buy in for 200BB or just buy in for 100BB cause that is what my bankroll supports?
I don't think it matters. If you feel like you can play deep, then go ahead and play deep. Just keep in mind the rules for taking a shot--don't lose more than a buy in or three before you move back down. Don't switch to all $5 tables, mix in one or two with your usual grind. Maybe play one or two tables less than normal.

GL; if you take a shot let me know how it goes.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-23-2008 , 10:10 PM
my trip to this limit has ended. I was hoping you guys can kinda could serve has a review panel!

all comments appreciated





Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-24-2008 , 04:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge

I don't think anybody has a definition for "big," here. Almost all Tags lose some in non-sd, which for the good players is confined to blind losses and maybe ep non-sd losses, but obviously the amount of losses in a big sample varies with the skill of the player. I think it is virtually impossible to sustain a win rate of greater than 1.5 or 2 ptbb/100 if you are losing 70% of your non-sd winnings. I did some math on this once but I am far too lazy to look for it or replicate it.

FWIW, I would consider it a major leak if you are keeping less than 30% of your showdown winnings, and I would consider it a leak if you are keeping less than half.

If you went from losing 70% of your sd winnings to losing only 10% in a month, you are almost certainly running white hot, and should continue to focus on identifying and plugging your non-sd leaks (most ikely blind play).
Thanks for the remarks. To clarify: The 70% are over my whole history, the 10% this month only; I didn't check the last couple of months one by one. Also, I play little volume (30k hands since June, 5k so far in October), so possibly I've run hot all my life, and it's all just statistical anomalies.

I study a lot and I feel my game is evolving, so I'm not sure how characteristic hands from 5 months ago are of my current game. How big a sample would you suggest to include into graphs/stats posted here?


Edit: Looking at the graph again maybe it's more like 55% and not 70%...
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-24-2008 , 05:06 AM
Thanks mpethybridge!

Will post again with a bigger sample size, hopefully it is just running bad. Good to know that there are no glaring errors in there...

Having read through most of this thread, the amount of time you must put into all these analyses boggles the mind. Much appreciated.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-24-2008 , 06:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cangurino
How big a sample would you suggest to include into graphs/stats posted here?
Nvm read some back issues... I'll post some graphs in December I guess
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-24-2008 , 11:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdAA88
Thanks for the input mpethy! BTW someone had mentioned that you made a full ring video, know where I could find it?
I didn't really make a video, per se; I recorded an hour of play and it was brilliantly reviewed by Baluga Whale and TubaSteve in episode 5 in the coaching tree series on deuces cracked.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-24-2008 , 10:45 PM
Baluga does an amazing job reviewing those videos. He tends to go off in a tangent quite a bit but he's got a great way of explaining concepts that very few others seem able to do.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-25-2008 , 05:13 AM
Thanks for the analysis of my graphs and sorry for the late reply but I wanted to spend some time thinking about what you said and provide some answers and see if you can help me repair some of the problems.

My replies are in bold below and I look foward to hearing back about your thoughts:

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
I just saw a few things:

1. small blind. This is a small leak for you. read post 489 ITT; you probably are not trying hard enough to win some of the limped pots you wind up in.

In the Small Blind when it's folded to me my Att. to Steal is 35%. Should I be trying more? My winrate in the SB is poor partly because I lost 100BB pots with AA 4 times in the SB.

Aside from stealing more from the SB when it's folded to me what else should I be trying to do. You mention try harder to win some limped pots. When it's limped to the SB and I'm looking at playing a hand like AT/AJ/KJ/KQ it occurs to me I have to try to get a number of players that are super loose PF to fold or play OOP post flop and probably catch no piece of the flop.

I'm not exactly clear on what I should be trying to do to win more of these limped pots. This is 10NL afterall.


2. button play. Not sure what the problem is here, but you have a pretty decent sample, and your button winrate is 1/3 lower than your cut off win rate. This ought not to happen. It could just be variance, but look back over your hands and make sre that you are not, for instance, pushing way too hard to win your steals.

In addition, your ATS at 30% is good, but try to get it up a few percentage points.

I've got a several hands in the button that I got over involved in with TPTK and overpairs to the board and lost some bigger pots. I htink that is where a lot of the descrepency comes from.

My button ATS is only 35% and nothing more than 10-20BB loses came from hands that I tried to take down pots with post flop and failed. Although there are many of them.


3. W$WSF is too low. This stat is affected by playing weak tight out of the blinds, so this might be at least partially cured by working on your blind play. In addition, you should be looking for spots where you can pick up orphan pots--on the button when it is checked to you, for instance. Also, look at your continuation bet %; a low c-bet% is going to reduce your W$WSF%

I thought a W$WSF over 35% was pretty decent? What should I be going for? I'm at 37% now.

Maybe I'm a bit scared but I feel like trying to pick up orphaned pots when i'm in the blinds in multiway pots postflop with air may increase my W$WSF stat but might also kill my winrate since people at 10NL don't really like to fold and I have to play the hand OOP.

Picking up pots on the button doesn't seem to be a problem for me. My flop cbet is 75.68%, is that too low? Again at 10NL I often find myself in a steal attempt with air postflop against opponents that just won't fold enough of the time to try so I won't even bother if i was stealing weaker holdings that don't connect to the flop at all.


4. Consider tightening up in EP. Check the profitability of your EP limps and calls, and cut them way back if, as I suspect, they prove to be a leak for you.

My UTG limps/calls are -20.70 over 45 hands, but it only consists of pairs and AK, and the only big losses were with 88 under set vs. over set and JJ bet/call 3bet/flop overpair/lost to KK.

UTG+1 much of the same. although i'm +24.05 in this position overall in limp/call pots. Just pairs and AK/AQ. Lost a big pot with TT here, don't know why after reviewing it, i guess i lost my mind that day but it was just 1 hand.

UTG+2 i'm up slightly in limp/called post (+1.35). 59 hands overall, mostly pairs, AJs+ and a few SC's like 98s. No wins or loses on any of the over about 50bb's.



Your non-sd line looks good, overall. I am still curious as to why it started out b/e in a fairly large number of hands and then tailed off, but overall it is fine.

I feel pretty confident also that you have some post-flop leaks that don't really show up in the stats analysis, simply because your win rate is significantly lower than I would expect it to be from your stats. So check things like your river calls, check your profitability in limped pots or pots where you called a preflop raise, and check the profitability of your pocket pairs. Any negative numbers indicate leaks, as would a small positive number for AA/KK/QQ, with which you should be winning about 5ptbb/hand each.

I looked at my pairs. AA is 5.88bb/100, but KK and QQ are only about 2.5bb/100. I've had KK 177 times with a Win% of 84.18. I've gotten it all in preflop and lost 100BB+ against either AA or suckouts 10 times and only won with it for 100BB+ 3 times. Maybe this is a leak or variance, I don't know, all i hear is never fold KK preflop at uNL?

Regarding river calls. I'm just doing terrible when calling river bets. I'll have to spend more time reviewing the hands but so far it seems like a lot of hands where I have something pretty strong, like a straight, and a flush card comes on the river and i c/c and get shown a flush or flop AA3 when I have AQ and get shown A3 when I call the river jam. I don't know, some of these hands I should maybe get away from I guess.

My profitability in limped posts looks pretty good overall. I'm making 10.32 bb/100 in overall where I limp/call preflop...



Last edited by techvoodoo; 10-25-2008 at 05:28 AM.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-25-2008 , 11:48 AM
1. small blind. This is a small leak for you. read post 489 ITT; you probably are not trying hard enough to win some of the limped pots you wind up in.

In the Small Blind when it's folded to me my Att. to Steal is 35%. Should I be trying more? My winrate in the SB is poor partly because I lost 100BB pots with AA 4 times in the SB.

Mine is 45% with a steal success rate of 56%; so, yes, I would say get it a bit higher.

Aside from stealing more from the SB when it's folded to me what else should I be trying to do. You mention try harder to win some limped pots. When it's limped to the SB and I'm looking at playing a hand like AT/AJ/KJ/KQ it occurs to me I have to try to get a number of players that are super loose PF to fold or play OOP post flop and probably catch no piece of the flop.

I'm not exactly clear on what I should be trying to do to win more of these limped pots. This is 10NL afterall.

Well, people play a lot of fit or fold at NL $10. Use this fact to your advantage. Preflop, with most of the hands you listed, you would want to raise it up and at least try to narrow the field some. Make your raises from the small blind bigger than usual--you are going to be OOP, so you don't mind winning preflop. So add on a big blind or two to the normal 3.5+1 per limper.

Post flop, just remember that by raising you represent strength, and by limp/calling your opponent represents weakness. Evaluate the flop based on whether it hit your perceived range or the villain's perceived range, not on whether it actually hit your hand. Your opponent will normally be expecting you to c-bet, so you should normally not disappoint him--he is prepeared to give up on the flop unless it hits him pretty hard.

What I was referring to about limped pots is when you complete from the small blind, the BB and one other limper are in the pot. You act first, so you should normally go ahead and bet any pair or any draw you hit. You have lots of great bluffing opportunities, too; for example, when the flop is ace or king high, or when the flop is paired. Most flops miss most people, so these bluffs and bets with any pair or draw should have a relatively high success rate.



2. button play. Not sure what the problem is here, but you have a pretty decent sample, and your button winrate is 1/3 lower than your cut off win rate. This ought not to happen. It could just be variance, but look back over your hands and make sre that you are not, for instance, pushing way too hard to win your steals.
In addition, your ATS at 30% is good, but try to get it up a few percentage points.

I've got a several hands in the button that I got over involved in with TPTK and overpairs to the board and lost some bigger pots. I htink that is where a lot of the descrepency comes from.

My button ATS is only 35% and nothing more than 10-20BB loses came from hands that I tried to take down pots with post flop and failed. Although there are many of them.

Yeah, you have to be careful about this. I am normally more willing to c-bet from the button against a limp/caller than I am from somebody in the blinds who flat called my pfr. You have to consider the flop texture as well. And you have to make sure you are not c-betting too much out of a sense of entitlement to win the pot because you are on the button. I check behind a lot of the time on the flop. I am usually playing a trash hand, so this serves to keep the pot small, as befits a small hand. I do this both with made hands and when I miss the flop. In short, you have to play poker, think about ranges, think about flop texture and think about bet sizing.

3. W$WSF is too low. This stat is affected by playing weak tight out of the blinds, so this might be at least partially cured by working on your blind play. In addition, you should be looking for spots where you can pick up orphan pots--on the button when it is checked to you, for instance. Also, look at your continuation bet %; a low c-bet% is going to reduce your W$WSF%

I thought a W$WSF over 35% was pretty decent? What should I be going for? I'm at 37% now.

37% is good. 40% is the gold standard, imo.

Maybe I'm a bit scared but I feel like trying to pick up orphaned pots when i'm in the blinds in multiway pots postflop with air may increase my W$WSF stat but might also kill my winrate since people at 10NL don't really like to fold and I have to play the hand OOP.

You shouldn't be firing at orphans empty handed, unless it is a good bluffing board. Have a little something to fall back on--any pair or draw. Be prepared to fire two streets sometimes, maybe a lot of the time.

Picking up pots on the button doesn't seem to be a problem for me. My flop cbet is 75.68%, is that too low? Again at 10NL I often find myself in a steal attempt with air postflop against opponents that just won't fold enough of the time to try so I won't even bother if i was stealing weaker holdings that don't connect to the flop at all.

This is fine, imo

4. Consider tightening up in EP. Check the profitability of your EP limps and calls, and cut them way back if, as I suspect, they prove to be a leak for you.

My UTG limps/calls are -20.70 over 45 hands, but it only consists of pairs and AK, and the only big losses were with 88 under set vs. over set and JJ bet/call 3bet/flop overpair/lost to KK.

UTG+1 much of the same. although i'm +24.05 in this position overall in limp/call pots. Just pairs and AK/AQ. Lost a big pot with TT here, don't know why after reviewing it, i guess i lost my mind that day but it was just 1 hand.

UTG+2 i'm up slightly in limp/called post (+1.35). 59 hands overall, mostly pairs, AJs+ and a few SC's like 98s. No wins or loses on any of the over about 50bb's.

These stats sound good overall. Maybe you can review the profitability of individual holdings, say, 22-66 and determine whether it is worth your while to be limp/calling them.



Your non-sd line looks good, overall. I am still curious as to why it started out b/e in a fairly large number of hands and then tailed off, but overall it is fine.

I feel pretty confident also that you have some post-flop leaks that don't really show up in the stats analysis, simply because your win rate is significantly lower than I would expect it to be from your stats. So check things like your river calls, check your profitability in limped pots or pots where you called a preflop raise, and check the profitability of your pocket pairs. Any negative numbers indicate leaks, as would a small positive number for AA/KK/QQ, with which you should be winning about 5ptbb/hand each.


I looked at my pairs. AA is 5.88bb/100, but KK and QQ are only about 2.5bb/100. I've had KK 177 times with a Win% of 84.18. I've gotten it all in preflop and lost 100BB+ against either AA or suckouts 10 times and only won with it for 100BB+ 3 times. Maybe this is a leak or variance, I don't know, all i hear is never fold KK preflop at uNL?

Yeah, your win rate with KK is too low. It sounds like some variance. I would also say that you should never fold KK preflop at $10, but I might be inclined to avoid getting all in preflop every time against oppopnents who seem competent.

Regarding river calls. I'm just doing terrible when calling river bets. I'll have to spend more time reviewing the hands but so far it seems like a lot of hands where I have something pretty strong, like a straight, and a flush card comes on the river and i c/c and get shown a flush or flop AA3 when I have AQ and get shown A3 when I call the river jam. I don't know, some of these hands I should maybe get away from I guess.

Maybe. There is nothing to do but review the individual hands. You are not looking for whether you won the hand or lost the hand, but whether you think the river call was +EV against the villain's range.

My profitability in limped posts looks pretty good overall. I'm making 10.32 bb/100 in overall where I limp/call preflop...

I agree this is good.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-25-2008 , 04:36 PM
Hello folks. I am posting my stats for the first time, so any comments would be much appreciated.

I've played a little over 10k hands, although some of them were 6max and the stats I'm posting are full ring only. However after 10k hands my results are pretty crappy. After playing this much I am down a fair amount, although rakeback and bonuses have made up for most of my losses. I feel like I've improved a lot over the 10k hands, but I have to face the fact that I might just suck at poker.

HOWEVER I'm fairly serious about this and I'm willing to work to improve my game.





Thanks for any advice. Also if there are other stats that I should be posting not included above let me know and I'll post them as well.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-26-2008 , 12:54 AM
Hi, I am currently beating 25NL at 1.58 BB/100 and would like some feedback on my stats, because I feel many of my big losses are from coolers, but if there is some advice you guys can give me I'm open to it.

The most trouble I am having is with low sets. I have a $200 loss with 4's and someone always seems to have a straight on the flop or a higher set, should I be playing these hands in EP? Or maybe consider folding botttom set on the flop? Or am I just that unlucky? I have the ability to fold them to to flush or straight cards on later streets.... but I am always beat on the flop. This is over 126k hands and is it possible to run this bad with sets or am I playing them wrong.

AA vs KK is in my favour in number of times but in pot size it is not.

Anyway here are my stats to look at and any criticisms are welcome. I Am now stealing at a 35% clip and have been closing the gap between VPIP and PFR in the last 40k hands or so.





Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-28-2008 , 12:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shininggg
my trip to this limit has ended. I was hoping you guys can kinda could serve has a review panel!

all comments appreciated





As I said to a previous poster, you did fine at NL $2 with a preflop style of play that you will need to completely retool before you move up to NL $25. Virtually any style of play combined with some post-flop skills can win at the levels below that.

1. You are too loose in EP. Before you reach NL $25, you will have to cut down significantly on the limping you are doing in EP.

2. You are too tight in LP. Open up considerably on the button. get your ATS up to about 35% or so.

3. Treat the CO like the button.

4. You will probably have to tighten up in the blinds, but I wouldn't change this until you see your blind loss rates going up, simply because what you are doing right now is working so well at the moment.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-28-2008 , 01:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by flopmonkey
Hello folks. I am posting my stats for the first time, so any comments would be much appreciated.

I've played a little over 10k hands, although some of them were 6max and the stats I'm posting are full ring only. However after 10k hands my results are pretty crappy. After playing this much I am down a fair amount, although rakeback and bonuses have made up for most of my losses. I feel like I've improved a lot over the 10k hands, but I have to face the fact that I might just suck at poker.

HOWEVER I'm fairly serious about this and I'm willing to work to improve my game.





Thanks for any advice. Also if there are other stats that I should be posting not included above let me know and I'll post them as well.
Flop Monkey:

Ordinarily when I am looking at people's stats, I try to advise them on how to improve their style of play. However, I am going to suggest to you that you actually change your style of play from LAg to TAg. TAg is easier to learn to play for a profit, and I think our first goal ought to be to make you a winner--then you can work on opening up back to a LAg style.

The two main problems I see with your game is that you are cold calling way too much and you are getting to showdown too much and then losing over half of them. With a LAg, ordinarily it is fine to be losing most showdowns, but in your case you are calling too much preflop and postflop to get away with a LAg style of play with regard to showdowns.

Here are the changes I think you ought to make. All of them should be considered temporary measures--first aid for your currently losing game.

1. Move down to NL $25

2. Fold all of the hands you limp in early position. After folding them, evaluate the players and the action behind you, and look to see whether you could have gotten away with a raise. If you consistently see a lot of limped pots behind you, or pots that get taken down by a button steal, you can start raising the decent pocket pairs 55, 66, 77 from EP at that table instead of folding them.

3. Stop cold-calling preflop raises, except:
a. in EP, you can call a raise with pocket pairs.
b. In MP, you can call a raise with AQ type hands and pocket pairs.
c. in late position, you can call a raise with pocket pairs and suited aces and connectors, but for suited aces and connectors you should lean toward folding them unless it is multi-way or you are in against someone whose stats indicate he will pay you off if you hit. Loose passive players are ideal. I donn't normally like to call with suited connectors against a TAG EP raise--if they have or hit a hand they normally will bet you off of your draw and/or fail to pay you off if you hit, but this is, of course, player dependent.

Don't get fancy with these hands postflop. your default play should be no set no bet with pocket pairs, try to get all in with big combo draws, and mix up your play between calling and raising IP with your decent draws (naked straight or flush draws). You should be able to articulate to yourself a very good reason for deviating from these default plays (you call with 77 otb, flop comes T23r, raiser checks flop and checks a turn brick--here you may bet your 77 because the raiser has given up on the pot. You call otb with 77, flop comes 456, you can call a flop bet because you flopped a pair plus draw.)

4. Read and apply post 489 ITT.

If all of this sounds very elementary and somewhat nitty, that is exactly the point. You are getting yourelf into post flop spots that you are losing money on. These changes are designed to keep you out of those tricky spots.

5. You are also going to need to work on your hand reading skills, so I would strongly recommend that you play no more than 5 tables at a time for the time being. If you find yourself on the river unsure and debating whether to call a bet, you should lean strongly toward folding. Try to train yourself, for the time being, to only call river bets when the villain is in an obvious bluffing situation, such as when all of the draws missed.

Again, all of these are temporary measures designed to stop your losses and produce a modest win rate from which you can add back in the LAg elements of your game. If you are unwilling to make these changes temporarily, then I would strongly suggest getting a coach to work with you in changing your existing style to a winning game.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-28-2008 , 01:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by roybert07
Hi, I am currently beating 25NL at 1.58 BB/100 and would like some feedback on my stats, because I feel many of my big losses are from coolers, but if there is some advice you guys can give me I'm open to it.

The most trouble I am having is with low sets. I have a $200 loss with 4's and someone always seems to have a straight on the flop or a higher set, should I be playing these hands in EP? Or maybe consider folding botttom set on the flop? Or am I just that unlucky? I have the ability to fold them to to flush or straight cards on later streets.... but I am always beat on the flop. This is over 126k hands and is it possible to run this bad with sets or am I playing them wrong.

AA vs KK is in my favour in number of times but in pot size it is not.

Anyway here are my stats to look at and any criticisms are welcome. I Am now stealing at a 35% clip and have been closing the gap between VPIP and PFR in the last 40k hands or so.





You said in your post that you have fixed the main things I would have identified as leaks, so good job there.

The main leaks I saw in addition to those were:

a. your win rate with AA-QQ are too low. In a big sample such as yours, this most likely indicates a propensity to lose too much with these hands when you are outflopped. This isn't a big leak for you--it is maybe 1-2 ptbb/hand with each of these hands, but that adds up to a lot of money. Go back over your hands and try to find out where you are going wrong with these. The general rule is that we love these hands post flop until we get raised. Getting raised does not mean you are behind, of course, but if you are routinely calling down people who raise you post flop, it probably is a leak. Again, go back over your hands.

b. your W$WSF is far too low. You are losing a lot of pots you could have won. One of the major reasons for a low W$WSF is passivity in the blinds, so read post 489 ITT and apply anything that seems new to you.

Other than that, your stats look ok, given that you said you have changed the vpip/pfr and ATS recently.

As for the set-o-meter stats, yeah, you are running a bit bad. Your loss rate with 44 is so high in part because you have flopped sets with 44 at less than the statistically expected rate (just a bit more than 1 in 10 with 44, whereas you expect 1 in 8.5). Flopping these extra sets would have significantly improved the loss rate, but you probably still would have been losing money with 44.

Your win rates with all of the pocket pairs was a little low, so you ought to examine your play with them, both when you hit a set and when you don't. You may be floating too much unimproved, you may be failing to extract when you flop a set, you may be doing both.

As for running bad, yes, it is possible to run that bad for so long. I ran much worse than you in sets over a 330,000 hand sample. I flopped sets in all of 2007 at the rate of 1 per 11 pocket pairs that saw the flop.

I haven't bothered to check since then because thinking about running bad is not productive, and we should be focusing on the things that are in our control--maximizing the win rate when we do hit a set, minimizing our losses when we don't, etc., etc.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-29-2008 , 11:26 AM
These are my stats for 5NL and Im looking to move up to 10NL again.
At around 6,700 hands I moved up to 10NL because I was sufficiently rolled to do so, I lost 2.5 buyins so I came back down and it was reccomended to me that I got an acceptable sample size of hands (which I was told was 10K hands) at 5NL to see if I really was beating it before moving up again.
What do you think?




The last 3000 hands has been the longest stretch for me where I just dont get any action.
We should be concerned about the amount I have won from the button shouldnt we?
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-29-2008 , 07:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
You said in your post that you have fixed the main things I would have identified as leaks, so good job there.

The main leaks I saw in addition to those were:

a. your win rate with AA-QQ are too low. In a big sample such as yours, this most likely indicates a propensity to lose too much with these hands when you are outflopped. This isn't a big leak for you--it is maybe 1-2 ptbb/hand with each of these hands, but that adds up to a lot of money. Go back over your hands and try to find out where you are going wrong with these. The general rule is that we love these hands post flop until we get raised. Getting raised does not mean you are behind, of course, but if you are routinely calling down people who raise you post flop, it probably is a leak. Again, go back over your hands.

b. your W$WSF is far too low. You are losing a lot of pots you could have won. One of the major reasons for a low W$WSF is passivity in the blinds, so read post 489 ITT and apply anything that seems new to you.

Other than that, your stats look ok, given that you said you have changed the vpip/pfr and ATS recently.

As for the set-o-meter stats, yeah, you are running a bit bad. Your loss rate with 44 is so high in part because you have flopped sets with 44 at less than the statistically expected rate (just a bit more than 1 in 10 with 44, whereas you expect 1 in 8.5). Flopping these extra sets would have significantly improved the loss rate, but you probably still would have been losing money with 44.

Your win rates with all of the pocket pairs was a little low, so you ought to examine your play with them, both when you hit a set and when you don't. You may be floating too much unimproved, you may be failing to extract when you flop a set, you may be doing both.

As for running bad, yes, it is possible to run that bad for so long. I ran much worse than you in sets over a 330,000 hand sample. I flopped sets in all of 2007 at the rate of 1 per 11 pocket pairs that saw the flop.

I haven't bothered to check since then because thinking about running bad is not productive, and we should be focusing on the things that are in our control--maximizing the win rate when we do hit a set, minimizing our losses when we don't, etc., etc.
Thanks, most of your points were correct about overplaying AA-QQ and Winning money without showdown. I look how successful my cbets were and surprisingly 75%, so I need to do that more often.

Sets that I have gone back and looked at I guess I am just running bad when I hit my sets. Much of the loss are from big pots when they have either made a higher set or outflopped me with a straight or flush. I usually didn't do anything absolutely crazy with them on turn and river when any scare cards came out, and have won some big pots with them.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-30-2008 , 12:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peanut Juice
These are my stats for 5NL and Im looking to move up to 10NL again.
At around 6,700 hands I moved up to 10NL because I was sufficiently rolled to do so, I lost 2.5 buyins so I came back down and it was reccomended to me that I got an acceptable sample size of hands (which I was told was 10K hands) at 5NL to see if I really was beating it before moving up again.
What do you think?




The last 3000 hands has been the longest stretch for me where I just dont get any action.
We should be concerned about the amount I have won from the button shouldnt we?
stay at $5 for the time being and work on two things:

1. positional awareness. You should be playing very tight in UTG and UTG+1--something like 8% of the hands, and you should bring it in for a raise pretty much every time you enter a pot. the exceptions are when UTG raises and you are UTG+1 with a small pocket pair--calling here is standard.

Playing 8% of your hands from EP means playing AQ+ and maybe 77+

You should loosen up in middle positions. Play pretty much the cards you are playing, plus look for spots to isolate limpers.

You should be playing very loose in late position. a vpip of about 25-28% in LP is fine.

2. Steal more. At 18% you are far too tight.

3. try to figure out the problem with your button win rate. It should be about what your CO win rate is. There;s no way to tell from your stats what it is, but you are right, it is too low. This could be variance in this small a sample.

Move up as soon as you have the roll and are comfortable with these changes to your game. Don't worry about sample size as you move up to $25. The jump from $25 to $50 is the first one I would worry about sample size on, because it is the first move up from one tough* level to another. So I would want to be sure I could beat $25 in a decent sample before I risked $50.

*tough means that most of the players attempt to implement a selective preflop strategy, are familiar with pot odds and bet sizing, and have an inkling of what hands are worth taking to showdown and what hands are not.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-30-2008 , 02:22 PM
Even though I am a winning player, this game is humbling enough to know that I too need to ask where people see my leaks are. I just made the jump from NL50 to NL100. I have found it more aggressive, as such I actually find playing a tad more passive then usual works a lot of the time, because most aggressive guys bet themselves out of there own money. Mind you when I am seizing the initiative I am playing aggressive. I spend a great deal of time table selecting, so because of my opponents I play differently. So one table I will be running a 7 on aggression and another a 1. Same goes for my LP play, some tables I am stealing at 40%, some 10%. Sometimes I am playing alot of in position hands in LP by Cold Calling PF if I have some serious spewers in front of me. Many of this may or may not be obvious by the stats.

Where I see my own problems is, I am taking bluffs too far with the wrong people. I am not getting cbets from steals respected rarely at all, so I am having trouble with steals. Steals are nearly useless when you have a 40 VPIP guy in the blinds. Anyway, I am sure I have leaks in my game and want to fix them as much as possible. So any help is appreciated.



btw, not sure how I could have a 100% CCPF in the UTG position, must be a PT3 error
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
10-31-2008 , 09:27 PM






40k hands, while running about 4 tables at a time, on occasion 6.
The majority of these are .05/.10 6max & 9max ring games. (around 50/50 ratio) Some of the other hands are when I had a big bankroll and had been up in levels before I cashed it all out.

Ok so here's the deal, I started back online this month after not playing $$ Games in about a year. I was on a roll and paying for a chunk of my school before they shut down a bunch of the poker sites to the US players. These graphs are about 1/4th of my hands, most I never kept track of till I bought Poker Tracker etc.....

I consider myself to be a very decent player. Multiple live tourney's every week of around 80-100ppl and it's rare for me not to finish at the final table or win 3-4 times a month so I know the game and I play solid.

Here lately I've started back up and put in $50 the other day to start grinding out a bankroll. Evidently the bad swing is still following me around. I can't believe how many bad beats I've received lately and it's eating me up. I'm looking for some advice as to what some of my leaks are or what I can fix about my game. I just find it impossible to build up from .05/.10 NL 6 and 9 man ring games because of ALL THE DONKEY's that suck out. I'll be rolling good and making profit then have a big hand, be in with the best of it and get nailed on the river every time.

Anyways, if anyone has any tips or suggestions please let me know. I read the boards all the time and all the articles etc, but this downswing of late is killing me and I don't know if it's just me or just small leaks that are keeping me from playing where I know I'm profitable and solid.

Last edited by MrSlydog; 10-31-2008 at 09:33 PM.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
11-02-2008 , 01:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrSlydog






40k hands, while running about 4 tables at a time, on occasion 6.
The majority of these are .05/.10 6max & 9max ring games. (around 50/50 ratio) Some of the other hands are when I had a big bankroll and had been up in levels before I cashed it all out.

Ok so here's the deal, I started back online this month after not playing $$ Games in about a year. I was on a roll and paying for a chunk of my school before they shut down a bunch of the poker sites to the US players. These graphs are about 1/4th of my hands, most I never kept track of till I bought Poker Tracker etc.....

I consider myself to be a very decent player. Multiple live tourney's every week of around 80-100ppl and it's rare for me not to finish at the final table or win 3-4 times a month so I know the game and I play solid.

Here lately I've started back up and put in $50 the other day to start grinding out a bankroll. Evidently the bad swing is still following me around. I can't believe how many bad beats I've received lately and it's eating me up. I'm looking for some advice as to what some of my leaks are or what I can fix about my game. I just find it impossible to build up from .05/.10 NL 6 and 9 man ring games because of ALL THE DONKEY's that suck out. I'll be rolling good and making profit then have a big hand, be in with the best of it and get nailed on the river every time.

Anyways, if anyone has any tips or suggestions please let me know. I read the boards all the time and all the articles etc, but this downswing of late is killing me and I don't know if it's just me or just small leaks that are keeping me from playing where I know I'm profitable and solid.
PokerEV says you are running a little hot in this sample.

as for your leaks, briefly:

1. Tighten up in early position--you are leaking big time. raise, say, the top 8% hands and fold everything else.
2. Tighten up in the small blind. defend less, raise first in or when there is one limper ahead of you, rarely just complete.
3. Steal waaaaay more in the CO and OTB.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote
11-02-2008 , 01:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by abstractls
Even though I am a winning player, this game is humbling enough to know that I too need to ask where people see my leaks are. I just made the jump from NL50 to NL100. I have found it more aggressive, as such I actually find playing a tad more passive then usual works a lot of the time, because most aggressive guys bet themselves out of there own money. Mind you when I am seizing the initiative I am playing aggressive. I spend a great deal of time table selecting, so because of my opponents I play differently. So one table I will be running a 7 on aggression and another a 1. Same goes for my LP play, some tables I am stealing at 40%, some 10%. Sometimes I am playing alot of in position hands in LP by Cold Calling PF if I have some serious spewers in front of me. Many of this may or may not be obvious by the stats.

Where I see my own problems is, I am taking bluffs too far with the wrong people. I am not getting cbets from steals respected rarely at all, so I am having trouble with steals. Steals are nearly useless when you have a 40 VPIP guy in the blinds. Anyway, I am sure I have leaks in my game and want to fix them as much as possible. So any help is appreciated.



btw, not sure how I could have a 100% CCPF in the UTG position, must be a PT3 error
I'm gonna find somebody to look over your stats, but I'm going to take a pass on this one.
Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Quote

      
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