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Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread Stats and Graphs Analysis Thread

03-19-2008 , 04:19 AM
In a previous thread, I think people posted their WTSD and I want to think that most were in the low 20's.

I dont put much emphasis on this stat. However, it is worth looking at for me in hands where I am betting on the turn or raising big with a set to protect against flush/straight draws.
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03-19-2008 , 07:50 AM
Great post, MP! This will be referred to again and again. Looking forward to culling through PT and doing some analysis of my own.
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03-19-2008 , 08:19 AM
I'm usually a habitual lurker but this thread has made me get off my butt and finally make a post, so be nice - my ego bruises easily

I know the size of the database is small - i'm such a clutz that i moved from win xp to vista and back again and totally forgot to backup my PT databases... so for simplicity assume that i had a DB that was about 25x larger. I don't think these stats differ greatly over the 27k i did have stored anyhow.





I've looked at my stats and having read this post and the other sticky on the same subject i'm feeling like a completely passive fish now Any thoughts, suggesstions and help is greatly appreciated....

[1] My PFR% compared to VPIP is too low. So am i correct in thinking that i should tighten up to reduce the VPIP slightly and raise more in position against the right opponents ? For example - After looking at my position stats tighten up UTG and complete less in the SB and raise more from MP2 onwards ?

[2] I am unsure as to what to make of my cold call %'s - Am i being too passive here and therefore folding when i could cold call with positional advantage to take the pot down post flop ?

[3] My "Att to steal blinds %" is too low which to my mind will be related to the low PFR%, should tightening up to reduce my VPIP a little plus raising more of the hands i was limping with in later positions when i'm first to act add to my winrate?? the goal really being a higher PFR% OTB or on the CO (possibly as much as 200 - 250% higher ? *gulp*)

[4] My aggression factors across all streets seem to be the wrong way round! It looks like i am waiting till i know i am ahead or at least until i know the vilain has missed or will laydown before i get more aggressive which to my mind must mean i am missing out on getting added value a lot of the time on the earlier streets.... is this a correct assumption ?
Should i be betting / reraising more thinly and attempting to push villains off of there marginal hands more often on the flop or turn ?
One last thought on the street AF's is that i am not cbetting enough, combining this with the fact that i need to raise more PF anyway (which will lead to more c betting oppurtunities) - i guess i just needed clarification that this is sound enough thinking...

[5] Other thoughts - i am slow playing good made hands too often and am most probably check calling good draws instead of being aggressive - this proably means i am also closing down and doing too much pot control (C/C) when scare cards hit - does this mean i am playing far too much fit or fold poker and am giving villains too much credit for decent hands resulting in me laying down the winner all to often ?


My first post, so congrats me! I might never lurk again

Great thread btw. Props to the OP!
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03-19-2008 , 08:30 AM
i've just noticed how many newbies post there stats like i just did so if i have hijacked this thread please accept my apologies

...and no this isn't a blatant attempt at ramping up my post count
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03-19-2008 , 08:40 AM
Another good post with no time to read. Going to be busy on April 16th.

NH, MP
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03-19-2008 , 08:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Berge20
Curious, where do you pull the 25% WTSD figure from?

Not to hijack, but I've always hovered around 20% and it seems to me this may be part of the reason I'm not quite having the level of success that I want.
Are you running as tightly as these guys? Theoretically, this should be a function of how many hands you play. If you play more hands postflop then you are going to have less hands that you want to see a showdown on average. It also depends on how "bluffy" you are.

For example, I go to showdown less often and win at showdown less often but I win more often when I see a flop.
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03-19-2008 , 09:25 AM
I run about 14/10/3
20 WTSD
52ish W@SD
35ish Win when I see a flop
32ish steal

No complaints, I still win decent, but it's good food for thought though. It is highly possible I'm blowing people away too often, so something to review.
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03-19-2008 , 09:30 AM
moke:

1)correct
2)wouldn't worry about that one yet (if at all)
3)Yep, you will need to start bumping you raising range in LP, I recommend adding just a little at a time over the next several sessions vs trying to bump it up that much immediately, this thread has some good ideas for LP raising ranges and situations http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...d.php?t=156096
4)True, since you don't raise as often pre-flop, you are likely in the position of calling somebody elses c-bet vs c-betting your own pfr. I think thats why their (and my) flop AF is so high, playing lots of pots as the preflop raiser puts you in position to bet the flop much more often/ raise donkbets, etc....
5)Most likely
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03-19-2008 , 09:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Berge20
I run about 14/10/3
20 WTSD
52ish W@SD
35ish Win when I see a flop
32ish steal

No complaints, I still win decent, but it's good food for thought though. It is highly possible I'm blowing people away too often, so something to review.

See... I don't know. I run at like 15/11/something and my WTSD and W@SD is about the same but my win when I see the flop is 39 and my attempt to steal is like 41.
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03-19-2008 , 09:49 AM
<-----Weak tight postflop perhaps

Also, I went through the original thread and did the name change thing. May have missed one or two though.
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03-19-2008 , 10:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Berge20
<-----Weak tight postflop perhaps

Also, I went through the original thread and did the name change thing. May have missed one or two though.
Speaking of which... does most everyone have a W$WSF around 35%? Maybe mine is just high.
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03-19-2008 , 11:49 AM
So I did a basic review of my stats and specific situations I was losing money in, and I come to 5 immediate conclusions.

1) Flat calling in position too much instead of reraising.
2) Spewing with AQ when OOP.
3) Not value betting on the river often enough.
4) Not playing draws aggressively enough when in position.
5) Not dumping a hand when I miss and get bet into.

Anyone else spot anything? I'm pretty new to using PT. I am looking at stats just for 10NL FR, by the way.




edit: Holy crap, I also just realized that AKs is my biggest UTG losing hand.
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03-19-2008 , 11:55 AM
You obviously are doing nothing wrong, you have 13,37 VPIP at NL50. It must be a hidden message!

I only skimmed through the post (will read the entire post later), but it looks like you're too passive, you're too tight and you're too passive (double passive). You're also too passive (TRIPLE PASSIVE). You seem like a weak nit by the stats shown and you seem to bend to pressure a lot.
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03-19-2008 , 01:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
OK, this is part 2, the quiz!
Mega thanks for this, but are you also going to lay odds on how long it will be before we get the next “please review my stats” post?

Anyway, here is my *grunched* effort. As soon as I’m done I’ll check out what everyone else has said (three pages of posts already as I start this!)

Pokey asks us:
Quote:
1. Do you have sufficient preflop aggression? To answer this question, open up your ring game statistics and go to the "position stats" page. For each position other than the small blind, divide the "PF Raise %" by the "Vol. Put $ In Pot." If you get a number smaller than 0.5, you're not aggressive enough out of that position.
In your early stats your PFR/VPIP ratio (as %) from the BTN towards UTG is 46% / 51% / 55% / 57%/ 52% / 49% / 44% - so you are not being aggressive enough either UTG or on the Button.

Limping in with over half your hands UTG is horrid. You invite lots of other limpers to join in, which begs any aggressive player in LP to put in a heavy raise of 4BB+1 per limper. Even if that limp was with one of the better speculative hands, like a medium PP, you may no longer get the odds you would need to make calling profitable. And you are also squeezed by all those callers behind you, and one of whom could re-raise – so you could call and still not see the flop.

What do the new improved stats look like: 61% /68% / 77% / 79% / 80% / 86% /86%

Nice!

Back to Pokey:

Quote:
Are you positionally aware? …. To test this, go to the Position Stats and look down the list of VPIP from Button to UTG. You should see that VPIP steadily dropping the farther you get from the button.
Your early stats again: How much bigger is the VPIP in each position (starting from the button again): 14% / 19% / 18% /15% / 6% / 4% which looks pretty good to me. You know about position. But boy, look at the new improved mpethybridge: 8% / 44% / 19% / 11% / 5% / 3% - just check-out that lovely step up (44% more) when you sit in the CO.

Pokey?

Quote:
3. How's my stealing? To check on your performance when trying a blind steal, go to the General Info. tab. Where it says "Att. To Steal Blinds" I'd like to see that number at LEAST 20%.
Was: 16.79% (not enough) / Is: 19.27% (nice - but could do more!)


mpethybridge’s DIY guide:
Quote:
Postflop Aggression
PT calculates your AF by adding the number of times you bet to the number of times you raise, and dividing this sum by the number of times you call. chargers bets or raises 4.5 times as often as he calls.
Was: 3.65 (so good on the flop; you c-bet a lot right …. ) / 1.68 / 1.77 (… and give up if they don’t fold!)

Is: 3.17 (better targeted c-bets, I guess) / 1.98 (fewer calls) / 2.31 (river value baby!)

Mpethybridge’s DIY guide

Quote:
WTSD% / W$WSF / W$SD
Was: 22.59 / 33.61 / 55.3%

OK, when I first saw this I thought it looked pretty damn fine. So I had to re-read the DIY guide and do some more homework. Now I would estimate that the slightly low WTSD and high W$SD suggest that you are not bringing enough villains holding marginal hands along with you to the flop. Put together with the high Flop AF above you are not getting three streets of value. You are telling villain to make the right move ( FTOP) when you should be encouraging them to make the wrong move (call or raise).

Now: 24.11 / 38.76 / 53.82

Cool, but your W$WSF is higher too! I need to think about that? Are you doing a better job of getting better hands to fold and worse hands to call?


OK, that’s me done, time to catch the school bus home.

Last edited by GrumpyB; 03-19-2008 at 01:29 PM. Reason: typo
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03-19-2008 , 02:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by threads13
Speaking of which... does most everyone have a W$WSF around 35%? Maybe mine is just high.
Apparently I have that at 42.5% over 19k hands at NL10. And yes, I am toning down my flop aggression in order not to blow out as many hands as before.

Funny as it is, I didn't know that figure two days ago. I had to improve my software first.

I think this is as good a spot as anything to give a screenshot. Apparently at least one of my goals for this year will be met.

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03-19-2008 , 03:01 PM
I think now is a good time to mention that you should rarely be "stealing blinds" in LP as you would in LHE. It's just a phrase, but you aren't just trying to win the blinds.
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03-19-2008 , 03:17 PM
Quote:
Speaking of which... does most everyone have a W$WSF around 35%? Maybe mine is just high.
FWIW mine is 35% but I cant tell you what that means in strat terms!
Nice post MP, will work through in detail later.
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03-19-2008 , 04:16 PM
Berge, the more you talk about your game, the more I'm convinced we're the same player.

Great post mp, hopefully it'll get stickied to lower the number of chaff stat posts =)

Seeing as I've had a nasty run as of late, I think I'll use this as an opportunity to pick apart my pt.
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03-19-2008 , 04:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Berge20
I run about 14/10/3
20 WTSD
52ish W@SD
35ish Win when I see a flop
32ish steal

No complaints, I still win decent, but it's good food for thought though. It is highly possible I'm blowing people away too often, so something to review.
Interesting to compare...
At 50NL (just over 30k hands) 15/9/3.
21% WTSD
54% W@SD
34% W$WSF
33ish steal

Always working on improving and somehow always more to do.
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03-19-2008 , 06:05 PM
Is there a way to set up PT to filter hands that I saw a showdown with, but didn't bet on the river? I couldn't figure out a way to do it, but I'd like to see situations I am missing value bets on.
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03-19-2008 , 11:11 PM
great post OP, glad u moved up to 100nl btw
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03-19-2008 , 11:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Berge20
Also, I went through the original thread and did the name change thing. May have missed one or two though.
Thank you very much. It was driving me insane. Owe you one, Mr. Mod.
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03-19-2008 , 11:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by I vi ii V7
Is there a way to set up PT to filter hands that I saw a showdown with, but didn't bet on the river? I couldn't figure out a way to do it, but I'd like to see situations I am missing value bets on.
As they are currently available, this is a job for Poker EV; I don't think Poker Tracker 2 (the release we are all using unless we have PT3 Beta) can do this. And even with Poker EV, you can't filter for hands you checked on the river. You may have to wade through all of your hands that went to the river.

www.pokerevsoftware.com
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03-20-2008 , 01:25 AM
Wow, great post! I've posted a sticky pointing to this thread as the official stats/graph thread. I'll add it to the FAQ next time I update.
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03-20-2008 , 02:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mokeyuk
I'm usually a habitual lurker but this thread has made me get off my butt and finally make a post, so be nice - my ego bruises easily

I know the size of the database is small - i'm such a clutz that i moved from win xp to vista and back again and totally forgot to backup my PT databases... so for simplicity assume that i had a DB that was about 25x larger. I don't think these stats differ greatly over the 27k i did have stored anyhow.



I've looked at my stats and having read this post and the other sticky on the same subject i'm feeling like a completely passive fish now Any thoughts, suggesstions and help is greatly appreciated....

[1] My PFR% compared to VPIP is too low. So am i correct in thinking that i should tighten up to reduce the VPIP slightly and raise more in position against the right opponents ? For example - After looking at my position stats tighten up UTG and complete less in the SB and raise more from MP2 onwards ?

[2] I am unsure as to what to make of my cold call %'s - Am i being too passive here and therefore folding when i could cold call with positional advantage to take the pot down post flop ?

[3] My "Att to steal blinds %" is too low which to my mind will be related to the low PFR%, should tightening up to reduce my VPIP a little plus raising more of the hands i was limping with in later positions when i'm first to act add to my winrate?? the goal really being a higher PFR% OTB or on the CO (possibly as much as 200 - 250% higher ? *gulp*)

[4] My aggression factors across all streets seem to be the wrong way round! It looks like i am waiting till i know i am ahead or at least until i know the vilain has missed or will laydown before i get more aggressive which to my mind must mean i am missing out on getting added value a lot of the time on the earlier streets.... is this a correct assumption ?
Should i be betting / reraising more thinly and attempting to push villains off of there marginal hands more often on the flop or turn ?
One last thought on the street AF's is that i am not cbetting enough, combining this with the fact that i need to raise more PF anyway (which will lead to more c betting oppurtunities) - i guess i just needed clarification that this is sound enough thinking...

[5] Other thoughts - i am slow playing good made hands too often and am most probably check calling good draws instead of being aggressive - this proably means i am also closing down and doing too much pot control (C/C) when scare cards hit - does this mean i am playing far too much fit or fold poker and am giving villains too much credit for decent hands resulting in me laying down the winner all to often ?


My first post, so congrats me! I might never lurk again

Great thread btw. Props to the OP!
MokeyUK: Welcome to 2+2; I am sure we would all like to hear more from you in the future. Start posting hand histories and start posting replies in threads.

Here are my thoughts on your stats:

Your sample size is too small for a meaningful review, really. But I will assume that it is perfectly representative of your play and say:

18.8/6 is bordering on loose passive. Tighten up and play more aggressively. Your position stats show the biggest leak in your game is UTG and UTG+1, where you are limping about half the 11% of the hands you are playing from those positions.

A typical Tag would be folding a lot of those hands you are limping and raising with others. It depends, really, on which hands you are limping. When I was limping a lot in EP it was with hands like 22-55, AQo, KQs. Now I fold them or raise them, depending on the table conditions; if the table is aggressive, with most pots being raised or reraised, I generally fold the small pps UTG and UTG+1; if the table is passive, which hardly ever happens anymore, I raise with them. At first I started folding AQ and KQs in EP, until I started feeling more confident in my postflop game; now I raise with them in EP 100%.

In general, you should not be limping from EP--you are out of position, you have a vulnerable hand and you have not taken the initiative. Basically, how do you expect to win the pot? The answer is you are hoping to flop a monster, but with 22 or 55 this will only happen 12% of the time or so, and with AQ, you flop a hand maybe 1/3 of the time or so. So you have to raise these hands and try to win with postflop aggression, or you have to fold them and save your 1bb.


The one change that made the biggest difference in my winrate was I stopped limping in EP and playing fit or fold.

This is crucial to playing solid Tag style. If you limp, you have to make a hand to win the pot most of the time. If you raise, you can often win with a c-bet regardless of whether you make a hand.

I am sure you can make other adjustments, but this is by far the biggest leak in your stats, imo.

Again, welcome to the forum, and good luck at the tables. Let us know how your efforts to improve progress!
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