Quick stat/graph related question. In your opinion, is it possible for a 25 vpip 18 pfr 4ptbb winner at 200NL to be a 12k loser on non-showdown hands over a 150k hand sample?

Yes.

Started with 600 dollars @ NL25 FR in the beginning of June (with some extra on Neteller). Now I have 380 left and have to move down to NL10 again. Was hoping to be able to move up to NL50 before the autumn but that seems impossible now.

I cant figure out what I do wrong. I think I play pretty decent and I try to improve all the time. When I started out playing I won without a problem although I didnt knew that much back then. Now it seems the "better" I get the more I loose.

This is what I do to improve:

- I watch alot of cardrunners movies.
- I read alot here.
- I own several pokerbooks that I have read more then once.
- I try to put in alot of hands.
- I try to look at my big loosers and winners and find what I did wrong/could have done better.
- I have started to post HH's here to get feedback.

What else can I do?

Things I impl. into my game recently:
- Trying to find spots to dubbelbarrel
- Isolating limpers
- Steal the blinds more then I used to (before I was at aroudn 20 %)

Here are my stats since I moved up to NL25. Before I played NL10 6 max and NL2 6 max succesfully.







And here is my graph from PokerEV:



Not pretty.

krambanan, your stats appear ok. I suggest you have a look at which hands are your biggest money losers.

Thanks.

Ako and JJ are two of them. Then 55 also but thats due to set vs higher set 3 times and two times I had set and they OP and they hit ri when we were all in already.

Overall it feels like I win lots of small pots (when I have a monster they fold although I bet the same as when I have less). And when I get ai in a big pot with a big hand, they either draw out on me or they have a even bigger made hand (set vs set happened alot lately). So I seem to loose all big pots.

Ill try to do Pokey's PT analyses on different kind of hands (PP's, Sc's and so on) and see what I come up with.

You W$WSF seems quite low for your VPIP. While your stealing alot of blinds your button VPIP isnt as high as I'd expect. You should try raising the button when people have limped in a bit more.


Also, your WtSD seems really low. About 25-27 would be standard for 15VPIP.

the last thing you want to do is listen to wAt these people have to say.

1) they will tell you that this guy sucks because he plays a 17/4


2) they will tell u that u are okay WHEN U CLEARLY SUCK AT POKER


[X] 2P2 IS 4 NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOBZ!

i promise that this is not meant in any sort of brag...

but do ppl encounter this much variance? (~2 10+BI downswings every 50K hands)
(the lines are drawn at $1K (10BI) markers)


*all at 100nl
*16 tabling
*running very TAG stats

Any comments appreciated.

I know it's a small sample but these are the only recent hands I have.

Thanks.

Then maybe you can explain to me what Im doing wrong?

Over about 300k lifetime hands of NL100, I have swonged -10BI once. 8 BI seems to be my standard swong (happens every 40-50k hands I would guess), I don't think my play is very low variance either. Not sure

When i used to play 50NL my graph was almost a straight line in the long term with very few large downswings. I think i had like 3 or 4 +10BI downswings over a million or so hands.

At 100NL though it's been a bit more swingy. I think i've played about 300K hands since moving back up and i've had multiple downswings of around 8BIs. Only 3 or 4 over 10BI though so not as swingy as yours, but my winrate over the sample is also higher so that will probably lead to less pronounced downswongs.

A question for all you people will loads of hands. Do you go through long stretches where your Money from non SD hands(redline) is alot bigger then your Won at SD(blue) line?

Probably not.

The vast majority of winning fullring players lose money in none showdown pots, i lose around 2-3ptbb in non showdown hands although i'm not a great player, i think breaking even in none showdown pots would be a big achievement.

That said it all depends on your style, you can have a nittish/tag style and lose 2-3pt in non sd pots whilst winning 5-6 in sd pots whilst some more laggish players might win 2-3pt in non showdown pots whilst only breaking even in showdown pots because the game means their often winning alot of money by taking down smaller pots pre showdown whilst their often showing down with the worst hand because of this.


So it could be possible to have a red line above your sd line but it'd all depend on your style, for the most part though, this style is usualy mostly found in 6max games whilst the majority of successful fullring players tend to have a style ranging from nitty to aggressive tagish so dont play the style that exploits pre showdown play as much.

Okay, quick story before the graph/stats of doom.

I've been working up the ranks of Stars cash games for a while. I played $2NL until I won $40, played $5NL and won 3.5 BB/100 over 200 hours, 2BB/100 at $10NL over 500 hours. But I got stuck at 25NL last June and went to tourneys for a while. But in March I went for some shots. Worked a few hours at $5 and $10 and came back strong in $25 NL. (See 1st image for this year's 25 numbers). Then I went to $50NL in late May, and beat up on it for 10K hands with 2BB/100. But then July 13th-July 19th happened.(Line 7 on the excel picture) I'm now taking a break from cash games for a few days to look back and replay my hands.





So, does anyone see anything that changed from the early lines to the 4 Table/DS line? And what's wrong in general with my numbers?

Thank you.

i cant work out what all those numbers mean

I dont think you should be playing $50nl if you've only beat $5nl for 3.5pt over 200 hours and 2pt at $10nl. I'd look to improve your game alittle more and gain better winrates before moving up.

What part can't you understand?
The second chart is just % of PFR/VPIP.

I missed up there. Those numbers where totals. I've beat $5nl for 6.42pt this year. I added in the numbers for years past as well there. For $10nl it was about 4pt with about 6 stacks lost due to set over sets. My chart I posted shows I beat 25NL for 3pt.

Move back down though, seriously??

Jack

1.) ur sample size is suuuuuuuuuuuper small, like, to the point of hardly being considered a small run

2.) the back side of ur graph is what? 50nl? if so, thats like ~6BI. look above in this thread an see my graph (shows that winning players can hit super variance, and 6BIs is very normal)

3.) i wud move down to 25nl for a lil bit. put in a small sample size (20-35K), and report back. use this time to really hammer out a solid strategy, understand variance to an extent, and prep ur move back to 50nl.

(ur style is gonna b higher variance in general, so be prepped to hit bigger swings. they happen, learn to love them)

Pretty much all of it, dont you have pokertracker?

I do, I just separated the 50NL by tables and a separate part by downswing to see if anything was odd. ("Oh no, my VPIP rose way to much in the downswing!" was something I hoped I'd say) I couldn't find anything of the sort.


That's all of the 50NL I've played, downswing and all. Any bad numbers there or in my original graphs?


1)13K is small? I thought 20K was good. Unless that's some old method. What in your opinion is good/great/super?

2)Whole graph is 50NL. I know variance can be crazy, but I don't want to blame my recent troubles on it, because there's gotta be something I can fix.

3)What do my numbers say needs fixing though, bad as a sample size it may be? I can't go back to 25nl for the 3pt I got last time since it's the same style I'm using now, which probably has holes in it and perfecting my crappyness is not my plan.

100k is good, 300K is great, 2 milliyn is super.

30k isn't completely useless, 50k is bearable, 75k is okay.

13k is small.

Which is the reason why people don't advocate dropping out of school to go pro.

The gap between your vpip and pfr is too wide, try limping less with your weaker range of limping hands and raising with the stronger hands your limping with. Try and make your button vpip 3 times your utg vpip, something like 24 from the button and 8 from utg would be an ok start.

fold more from early possition and raise more of the hands you play from late possition, 22/8 from the button is pretty passive. Dont limp hands like T9 and QJs utg, just fold them.

Dont complete the sb as much, it might only be half a bet but it's the hardest possition to extract money after the flop.

Attempt to steal the blinds more from late possition, your 15% attempt to steal is pretty much a result of you being passive in late possition.

Jack:

Vantek did a good job of giving u more information on sample size. i dont think ppl should even post stat things in here unless the sample is 50K+ (no insult, just in generalities because smaller samples sizes are so skewwed).

Chip-* raises good points about ur vpip/pfr gap. however, the general 2p2 style is vpip being very close to pfr (13/11, 18/15, etc)...this generally makes u more aggro, or at least appear it. ur style of 18/5 can work,...however, it neccesitates a very strong handle on hand reading and postflop ability. of course, you shouldnt just be raising all hands if u dont know how to plan hands well...as u will spew at an incredible rate. the more passive approach it seems u are taking can work very well for u...u just need to work thru some things first.

variance at FR is brutal. for the very reason that its a grind to win, but super easy to spew and lose. I suggest posting some hands to get comments on ur thought process, learn some new lines, and see things from a different view.

gl