Hey everyone,
I'm looking for some feedback on this hand I played a few days ago - definitely one of the spiciest bluffs I've attempted. Villain seems like a reg so I'm looking for theoretical feedback, and I can't check my line in GTO Wizard because of the deeper stack depth, and at 200 BB deep 22 doesn't 3 bet at all on the BTN apparently (although I'm curious if it does in theory at 300BB).
Notes:
Villain notes - Not too many hands on him but stats so far are consistent with an aggressive reg.
Preflop - I usually call ~25% of the time with 22 but this time I rolled a 98, so I decided to go with a super low frequency (5%) 3 bet, probably only the first or second time I've ever 3b 22 in 250k hands. Facing the 4 bet I rolled a 67 so I decided to continue, although I probably would've continued regardless since the 3 bet is so low frequency. Probably playing few if any 5 bets centered around AA and A3s-A5s.
Flop - Figured I need to continue with BD straight and flush draws, plus implied odds for spiking a 2. I may have considered folding non-club combos
Turn - Seems like a standard check w/ a bit of SD value, I think I rolled something low anyways.
River - Facing a half pot bet, I was thinking this may be one of my best bluffs. I think I have a nut advantage over V's range, with my value centered around hands that beat AA - 67s that checked back turn to realize, super low frequency quads, and 99/5x that checked turn (although these hands would bet very frequently). I might also jam AsAd (blocking A5s) as a merge. In terms of bluffs, I was thinking 22 might be the best hand to go with as it completely unblocks bluffs and also blocks value in A2s (which could be a 4b bluff that takes this line). It's probably better to not have a club with the 22 (I think Ac2c barrels turn more frequently as an equity driven semibluff) but I probably fold those combos a lot on the flop vs 50% pot. I rolled a 73 so I ended up going for it, but I'm thinking I could probably get away with pure jamming this and not overbluffing. In terms of bluff combos, I think 22 and then 66 that block 65s would make the most sense, and I'd probably still be balanced.
What are your thoughts? Is this a punt to try and get someone to fold aces and kings here? Should I be using different bluff combos?
Thanks for the feedback!
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 0.50(BB)
HERO ($155.29) [VPIP: 22.3% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 31.4% | Flop Agg: 34.4% | Turn Agg: 29.9% | River Agg: 31.7% | 3Bet: 9% | Fold to 3Bet: 56.4% | 4Bet: 14.6% | Hands: 254233]
SB ($73.92) [VPIP: 27.2% | PFR: 21.1% | AGG: 26.6% | Hands: 287]
BB ($66.34) [VPIP: 18.9% | PFR: 12.1% | AGG: 28.9% | Hands: 134]
UTG ($70.54) [VPIP: 19.9% | PFR: 14% | AGG: 36.3% | Hands: 967]
HJ ($179.47) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 23.2% | AGG: 44.9% | Flop Agg: 56.5% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 36.4% | 3Bet: 8.9% | 4Bet: 28.6% | Fold to 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 142]
CO ($60) [VPIP: 26% | PFR: 19.6% | AGG: 37.5% | Hands: 7632]
Dealt to Hero: 2
2
UTG Folds,
HJ Raises To $1.05,
CO Folds,
HERO Raises To $3.75,
SB Folds,
BB Folds,
HJ Raises To $13,
HERO Calls $9.25
Hero SPR on Flop: [5.32 effective]
Flop ($26.75): 3
5
5
HJ Bets $12.71 (Rem. Stack: $153.76),
HERO Calls $12.71 (Rem. Stack: $129.58)
Turn ($52.17): 3
5
5
9
HJ Checks, HERO Checks
River ($52.17): 3
5
5
9
4
HJ Bets $24.78 (Rem. Stack: $128.98),
HERO Raises To $129.58 (allin)