Hey everyone,

I'm looking for some feedback on this hand I played a few days ago - definitely one of the spiciest bluffs I've attempted. Villain seems like a reg so I'm looking for theoretical feedback, and I can't check my line in GTO Wizard because of the deeper stack depth, and at 200 BB deep 22 doesn't 3 bet at all on the BTN apparently (although I'm curious if it does in theory at 300BB).

Notes:

Villain notes - Not too many hands on him but stats so far are consistent with an aggressive reg.
Preflop - I usually call ~25% of the time with 22 but this time I rolled a 98, so I decided to go with a super low frequency (5%) 3 bet, probably only the first or second time I've ever 3b 22 in 250k hands. Facing the 4 bet I rolled a 67 so I decided to continue, although I probably would've continued regardless since the 3 bet is so low frequency. Probably playing few if any 5 bets centered around AA and A3s-A5s.
Flop - Figured I need to continue with BD straight and flush draws, plus implied odds for spiking a 2. I may have considered folding non-club combos
Turn - Seems like a standard check w/ a bit of SD value, I think I rolled something low anyways.
River - Facing a half pot bet, I was thinking this may be one of my best bluffs. I think I have a nut advantage over V's range, with my value centered around hands that beat AA - 67s that checked back turn to realize, super low frequency quads, and 99/5x that checked turn (although these hands would bet very frequently). I might also jam AsAd (blocking A5s) as a merge. In terms of bluffs, I was thinking 22 might be the best hand to go with as it completely unblocks bluffs and also blocks value in A2s (which could be a 4b bluff that takes this line). It's probably better to not have a club with the 22 (I think Ac2c barrels turn more frequently as an equity driven semibluff) but I probably fold those combos a lot on the flop vs 50% pot. I rolled a 73 so I ended up going for it, but I'm thinking I could probably get away with pure jamming this and not overbluffing. In terms of bluff combos, I think 22 and then 66 that block 65s would make the most sense, and I'd probably still be balanced.

What are your thoughts? Is this a punt to try and get someone to fold aces and kings here? Should I be using different bluff combos?

Thanks for the feedback!


Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.50(BB)
HERO ($155.29) [VPIP: 22.3% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 31.4% | Flop Agg: 34.4% | Turn Agg: 29.9% | River Agg: 31.7% | 3Bet: 9% | Fold to 3Bet: 56.4% | 4Bet: 14.6% | Hands: 254233]
SB ($73.92) [VPIP: 27.2% | PFR: 21.1% | AGG: 26.6% | Hands: 287]
BB ($66.34) [VPIP: 18.9% | PFR: 12.1% | AGG: 28.9% | Hands: 134]
UTG ($70.54) [VPIP: 19.9% | PFR: 14% | AGG: 36.3% | Hands: 967]
HJ ($179.47) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 23.2% | AGG: 44.9% | Flop Agg: 56.5% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 36.4% | 3Bet: 8.9% | 4Bet: 28.6% | Fold to 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 142]
CO ($60) [VPIP: 26% | PFR: 19.6% | AGG: 37.5% | Hands: 7632]

Dealt to Hero: 2 2

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $1.05, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $3.75, SB Folds, BB Folds, HJ Raises To $13, HERO Calls $9.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.32 effective]
Flop ($26.75): 3 5 5
HJ Bets $12.71 (Rem. Stack: $153.76), HERO Calls $12.71 (Rem. Stack: $129.58)

Turn ($52.17): 3 5 5 9
HJ Checks, HERO Checks

River ($52.17): 3 5 5 9 4
HJ Bets $24.78 (Rem. Stack: $128.98), HERO Raises To $129.58 (allin)

HJ's 4bet sizing is too small but don't think anyone really knows 300bb theory in this spot for postflop. I'll say the turn X back caps you to 44/76s very often and you might not even have that in your 3bet range so you are repping super narrow here.

HJ should be calling AA/KK here when he goes small OTR. I don't think the bluff is great in theory (you probably want an Ace to block AA) but people are super nitty when deep so it could be okay in practice.

i'd say it's pretty tough to get someone off of an overpair here, in theory he may have some bluffs that beat you, some middling pockets for thin value, a 9x or some weird solver **** but i think in practice you're agaist AA or nothing, and I don't like our chances of him folding AA.

Given what i expect preflop ranges to be like, i think doing this is a lot worse in practice than in theory

I guess we are pretty indifferent here. Having a club is good (not bad. He's betting every suit on the flop but the fact he blocks your club flop calls is bad for him on the river) as he's less likely to bet a club himself here but the deuce specifically is pretty irrelevant. You definitely have a decent amount of value here and there aren't all that many bluffs. I think You're reasoning about unblocking bluffs and blocking value maybe makes this hand an OK call but I don't really love it. I think id rather like AKo with a club or AK/AQs to actually block his calling range. Again it's hard to say how he defends to this. He has quite an aggressive 4-bet stat so I guess he probably has some 56/45/A5 but it's questionable that he checks these on the turn very often so he might just feel he has to call his overpairs. I think this is likely to underperform tbh but I think it's indifferent between all three in theory (folding for sure being the predominant action)

I'm actually interested in what stronger players than me make of this. Like I feel like I want to read into the half pot bet on the river but I'm not sure if that has any merit

Don't think he has much value at all when he X's back turn. At this SPR you want to bet turn with most of your value. Most people's 3bet range preflop are suited hands/high cards/higher pocket pairs so when the board runs out like this he has almost no value OTR.

Thanks for the input! Interesting thoughts here. Maybe a good way to look at this is look at exactly how many combos are likely to get here. So when I get super deep I personally 3 bet SCs much more liberally so I'll definitely have 76s here a lot, probably 50% of combos pre (I'll mix call/3b and never fold to a 4b this size IP but will fold to a bigger 4b sometimes). The solver will have 76s at some frequency but I probably have it more in practice. Let's say I bluff turn with 76s half the time, that's a full 1 combo of value that gets to the river. In terms of 44 it's definitely true I won't have it very often but I will have it (I did have 22 after all lol), I'll probably have 5% each of the combos of 22-66 pre (3b more but calling 4b less as the pair gets bigger). One other thing to note is I'll definitely take this line with 55 100% of the time so that's in my range, but that's 1 combo that I have 5% of the time pre.

There are some other value combos I'll have at some frequency when I check back turn though too imo. I'm not a solver expert but at this depth I doubt that I can bet very much at all IP on the turn because there's very few hands I'm happy to stack off with for 300 BB here and when HJ continues they have a huge overpair advantage, so I would think I'd have to be checking a ton with TT-KK here (most of my range), and would have a small betting range centered around KK+/5x/boats/bluffs. But if I were to get lazy just split my range and bet all my 5x/boats/AA on the turn and check my overpairs, HJ could just jam 2.5x pot with everything on the river on a lot of runouts and I would be in a horrible situation. So I think I would need to definitely check back some traps here for protection. My most common trap here would probably be 99 as it needs the least protection, so I probably only bet it on the turn half of the time or so, and I'm probably checking back AA a decent amount as well. I'm probably pure betting 33 as it needs the most protection and can get value from A5s, etc. and am probably betting 5x very often (maybe 80%).

So let's say I have A5s, 54s, 65s, and 99 (8 combos OTR) in this preflop line 25% of the time each and then check back turn 25% of the time, that's another 0.5 combos of value to add to the 1 combo of 76s, some AA and small pieces of 44/55, so I probably have 2 full combos that take this line. So maybe I'd want 0.5 combos of bluffs here (which is still underbluffing a bit)? I do kind of agree that we might want an ace to block AA, so maybe a better combo would be Ad4d which blocks AA, A5s, and A2s? Assuming it gets here in this line which is would some of the time for sure but probably not enough I'm thinking. What other combos would be good? I honestly think we probably don't want to have a Q or a K in our hand because I think we want to unblock QQ/KK which is what we're targeting to fold out (as we can definitely take this line with AA as well), so the most intuitive AK/AQ bluffs kind of seem like a punt to me. Maybe Ac9c as well (blocking the super rare 99 and AA)? I think 22 or 66 (each of which having only ~0.1 combos here) might still make it in the range though given how few combos make it to the river and even using all these hands I think we still might be massively underbluffing in this spot.

What do you think about checking the turn with some thick value hands for some range protection, meaning we'd need some more bluffs? Do you think that makes sense?

I don't think your actual range breakdown matters much at all here when deciding to bluff. Your opponent won't perceive you to be as merged preflop as you are. He's not going to give you credit for hands like 76s/44 very often so blocking AA will be the most important part of the hand if you do decide to bluff. A3s/A4s can be bluffed and then your Ace high FD's that miss should be bluffed.

The range minutia of splitting combos to 0.1 and such isn't very productive imo. If you are taking a bluff line you should either be betting turn or the river should be a significant card that changes the board (if you decide to X turn/raise river)

Neither of those thing's happen in this hand so it's not going to be good in theory (its player dependent if it's good in practice because some 50nl regs will fold range here).

Thinking about it some more I think you're absolutely right. Most regs will probably consider the possibility that you could have A5s/99/76s/44 but they probably won't give you too much credit. The bigger concern for them is probably trapped AA preflop assuming they don't have it, as they'd probably expect for you to shove that hand too. So I would guess most regs would probably fold KK/QQ way more often than AA. If I were HJ that's what I think I'd do because I think I'd be able to talk myself into chopping with value lol. So yeah I guess the bluffs would want to have an A in them and probably not a K or Q, so if I am going to bluff I guess the FDs and A4/A3 (if I even call A3s pre) make the most sense, and 22 is probably a punt. It would probably be best to even just not bluff FDs and just stick to A4/A3 that block A5s, then I would barely ever be bluffing but at least something would be there. Thanks for the input!

Villain can have a lot of bluffs here, but you probably beat most if not all. I think the most common thing villain is going to have for value here is QQ and JJ. I think he is so likely to barrel KK+ on the turn.

Decent chance you actually have a profitable call here. He needs to fold about 63% of the time for this to be a profitable bluff. For it to be more profitable as a bluff than call, I think he needs to fold out more than half of his QQ and JJ, at a minimum. I think it's close. You have to assume he is overfolding because he assumes you are underbluffing at 50 NL. I could see that. But, I think it would have to be at least 60/40 favoring him folding, and even then I think it would be close to just calling.

BTW, there are 300bb preflop only charts in GTO Wizard and 22 is a pure fold vs HJ open. I have done the same thing with 22 on a high role in some spots. I think we just have to admit it's not good though.

Anyways though, since he 4bet small and we have a hand we have at very low frequency, calling 4bet seems fine. Flop call seems fine. Turn you could start bluffing, but checking seems fine too.

Both 2s in your hand are total blanks. A2s would be really wide for him and I would discount it. It would be a straight though, and it is rally the only plausible 2 he could have, so the fact that you have 2c is not really relevant because it isn't like he would show up with Kc2c here.

You mentioned you might jam AA here. I think at this stack depth facing a small 4bet you really should be 5betting AA.

It is kind of hard to think of what good bluffs are here that you should actually have in your range. I guess you could have AdKc or AsKc - could call flop with backdoor clubs, blocks AA, KK, A5s, at least better than calling with AK if he also turned AK into a bluff. As4s and Ad4d somewhat could make sense as they also block AA and A5s, but they have paired up and beat bluffs now.

Missed clubs might have to be in there too as there is only so much you can call on the flop. 8c7c, JcTc, but you might not really want those hands pre, hands that are kind of dubious pre.

I think any A or K might be more in the bluff range actually. A couple of people have said you want to block AA, but I think that isn't so clear. He could be barreling AA a lot on turn but giving up with other A high hands on river them deciding to stab on the river. Whether Q or J is going to be more in his fold range than bluff range is still debatable.

Overall interesting and weird spot.

I know you have the urge to balance your range and look at blockers and fun stuff, but for real, think about what he has and what likely mistakes he's making and play accordingly. I think call does everything that raise does except better.

Now, if you have a different view and disagree about our opponent's range that's fine, but the disagreement should come first and foremost from what imbalances you expect on this line and not on whether the 2c is good or bad

My assumptions about what villain does wrong in this line would be:

1. Lots of turn give ups that are not well protected by checking strong hands.

2. Too much trash on river, not enough value going half pot, check, half pot.

I feel like those assumptions are likely pretty good, but I am curious what other people think. These are definitely strong arguments for calling with 22.

The more interesting question to me is, should we be bluffing all in with hands with weaker showdown value, and which ones?

I like this play in 3bp more, but not in 4bet pot, you may not have required fold equity at this spr (i didnt check spoiler)
otoh i hear that regs fold everything super deep, so exploitatively this could be better than it looks

Dont you need to block the stronger parts of your opponents calling range when you over bet the river? Ops hand doesnt seem to block any of HJs calling range at all. On the positive side it doesnt block a lot of bluffs either. Personally id rather have Ace high or a hand with a 3 or 9

Fold pre.

solid advice

I offer extensive coaching for 1knl+

Actually... should we call??

Thanks for the comment here, that's some really good stuff. It's interesting that you pure fold 22 at 300 BB deep, I understand that RIO becomes a major thing as you get deeper but I thought once you get really deep you want to have good hands on 22x boards, but I guess those boards are so infrequent that it's not worth it. Plus I assume A2s is better anyways. I'll definitely fold pre in the future, no rolling at all haha.

I agree A2s is pretty wide but I know GTO Wizard does 4 bet it at some frequency 200 BB deep so it's probably not nothing. I agree QQ and JJ could be in range sometimes, but I think KK can definitely be in range too because I think going for 3 streets with KK is definitely getting thin for 300BB when BTN can definitely flat AA. I understand why you'd want to 5 bet AA vs a small 4b at least some of the time, but I think in practice it's better to rarely actually 5b here because I feel like most competent regs will start folding hands like AK/QQ a lot of the time to 5 bets, and you can get a ton of money vs KK anyways postflop. Even with the small 4b the SPR is small enough where it's just 3 streets of value to get all the money in so why not flat AA pre at least some of the time to protect your range? In practice I think I'd be flatting it more than half the time, with some 5 betting pretty much just so I can bluff lol. If AA gets here on the river I don't see why you shouldn't shove it, especially if you have the suits blocking A5s.

I definitely agree you want an ace in your hand though and that my play is a punt overall, it is an interesting an fun spot lol.

Yeah I agree with that. I probably could have just called some of the time and called it a day. I should've just folded pre too, I guess I just had an urge to make a fancy play.

FWIW I did get the super long tank fold at the end of the day, about half the time bank worth. I'm guessing they had KK and I got lucky, but after discussion I don't feel good about it lol.

When you work out the possible hands villain can have here, it isn't clear to me thay blockers necessarily matter a ton. The hands I would expect him to have mosfor value are QQ and JJ. And bluffs would probably be hands like AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo, AJs, ATs, A4s, KQs, KJs, KTs. I am guessing AA and KK mainly want to barrel turn. A5 also likely barreling turn. A possible turn trap would be something like 99 thay would be super low frequency.

I played with the frequencies he could have these hands and ultimately it seemed like blockers didn't make a huge difference. Having an A blocks a lot of bluffs and only 3 combos of AA he might not check much on the turn anyways. K is similar, but not as bad. Q blocks less bluffs and J blocks the fewest of all, but it isn't clear if you want to block or unblock QQ and JJ, because it isn't clear of he leans towards calling or folding those hands.

This is assuming that villain has reached a spot in the game tree that he doesn't protect well with strong hands, and there is a good chance blockers aren't going to change his call/fold ratio that much. So any two cards probably makes about as good of a bluff as any. But if that's the case, we have hands with worse showdown value than 22 we can bluff.

Yeah, if he is folding out hands like QQ, JJ, and KK 60% of the time or more, I am pretty sure bluffing 22 is higher EV than calling. But probably not a lot higher. Of the assumptions we can make about villain's range, I feel good about him barreling most of the topnof his range on turn and arriving at the river with a lot of trash. I don't feel as strongly about him overfolding overpairs here. It wouldn't surprise me, but it's the assumption with the greatest doubt.