NL5z QQ facing 4B and Hero maybe perceived on tilt - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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NL5z QQ facing 4B and Hero maybe perceived on tilt

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08-02-2020 , 08:45 AM

thetho

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 109

Same V as in my previous 76 post, no more reads than that hand.

Can we fold QQ here as V's range could be even stronger with Hero being perceived on tilt after losing AI just in the hand before? Or is rather the opposite true and V might do that with less than KK or AK given the situation?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB
SB: 195.6 BB
BB: 101 BB
UTG: 134.6 BB
MP: 98.6 BB
Hero (CO): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP raises to 30.4 BB, [color=red]Hero ???

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08-04-2020 , 11:30 PM

Adam Stewart

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,280

I'll take a stab at this:

Villain Range:
AA – 6 possible ways
KK - 6 possible ways
JJ - 6 possible ways
TT - 6 possible ways
99 - 6 possible ways
AK - 16 possible ways

Total of 46 hands.

(For simplicity, I didn’t include AQs nor QQ because far less likely given you have QQ)

Probability Villain has the hand:
AA – 13% likelihood
KK - 13% likelihood
JJ - 13% likelihood
TT - 13% likelihood
99 - 13% likelihood
AK – 35% likelihood

Odds of Winning (not precise for all permutations; just approximations here):
AA - Chance that your QQ wins = 18%
KK - Chance that your QQ wins = 17%
JJ - Chance that your QQ wins = 81%
TT - Chance that your QQ wins = 81%
99 - Chance that your QQ wins = 81%
AK –Chance that your QQ wins = 53%

Weight that all out and I believe you’re approximately a 55% favourite against that range here.

You’re getting better than even money on the call (4:3 money).

So, I’m thinking it’s a least a call – but then the postflop play gets messy.

So, thinking this is where you push All In.

More experienced No-Limit players, what say you?

Last edited by Adam Stewart; 08-04-2020 at 11:40 PM.

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08-04-2020 , 11:48 PM

Adam Stewart

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,280

Thinking more about this, further to my above reply ...

If you tighten Villain's range up to just AA/KK/JJ/AK, then you drop to about a 43% favourite.

If you went all-in and got called you'd be getting 1.2:1 on your money, but only 1.3:1 odds of winning. So, that pushes it toward a fold - EXCEPT, there's got to be some times he folds to your all-in ... maybe push the edge back to at least even or better?

Overall, seems a Villain tight range is a coin-flip 50/50, but you have a slight edge against the slightly wider range.

Seems this is an all-in for you still.

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