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Three of a Kind on the Board and I Have the 2nd Nuts! Three of a Kind on the Board and I Have the 2nd Nuts!

05-28-2020 , 11:34 AM
BTN 50/33 (24 hands)
BB 60/20 (5 hands)
Hero 15/9 (33 hands) Card dead and was nitting it up while watching a video.



I have a hard time thinking the BB actually donked the flop with Jx, and his riving sizing doesn't look like quads.

Slightly worried about the BTN overcalling on the flop, but does he check the turn with a J? I guess if he has a FH, maybe??

If I raise the river, what's a good sizing?



Ignition - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $17.81
SB: $6.91
BB: $5.21
UTG: $6.40
Hero (MP): $11.36
CO: $10.30

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A A

fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, BTN calls $0.30, fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95, 3 players) J J T
BB bets $0.36, Hero calls $0.36, BTN calls $0.36

Turn: ($2.03, 3 players) 8
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($2.03, 3 players) J
BB bets $0.97
Three of a Kind on the Board and I Have the 2nd Nuts! Quote
05-28-2020 , 11:38 AM
Agree he doesn't look like a J - although he donks into 2, so he could be too worried to bet the turn with a weak J. If you raise you just shove surely, cos he looks like a T and the donk is fishy and therefore he never folds a boat ever.
Three of a Kind on the Board and I Have the 2nd Nuts! Quote
05-28-2020 , 11:51 AM
You're very likely to be ahead but I think I'd just call, except if BB is a bit of a station or if you have a history which could make him do the herocall (then you need to bet large).
In general, you'll lose more against the occasional quads than you will gain from a stubborn T

Flatting has also the benefit that BTN could overcall with a T himself
Three of a Kind on the Board and I Have the 2nd Nuts! Quote
05-28-2020 , 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gendibal29
Flatting has also the benefit that BTN could overcall with a T himself
That's one of the things I was considering. It's possible BTN calls with a T if I raise, but I think he definitely calls with a T if I just flat.

Maybe he calls with an 8 if I flat as well. Not likely, but you never know.
Three of a Kind on the Board and I Have the 2nd Nuts! Quote
05-28-2020 , 12:00 PM
Given BB started the hand with ~50 BBs, I think a shove is fine here. Villain donked into 2 on a JJT board but checked the turn, I'd be surprised if he was afraid of the turned straight. It feels more like they have a pair (maybe tens, maybe a pocket) and wanted to protect, and with the rivered J they feel their pair is still good. If they have quads, so be it.

I don't think the BTN ever checks the turn here with a J.
Three of a Kind on the Board and I Have the 2nd Nuts! Quote

      
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