PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
BTN: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
SB: 169.5 BB (VPIP: 29.17, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
BB: 129.5 BB (VPIP: 11.63, PFR: 6.98, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 43)
UTG: 132.5 BB (VPIP: 23.64, PFR: 12.73, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 55)
UTG+1: 162.5 BB (VPIP: 12.75, PFR: 6.04, 3Bet Preflop: 3.13, Hands: 150)
Hero (MP): 176 BB
MP+1: 86 BB (VPIP: 54.55, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 11)
MP+2: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 15.22, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 95)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A J

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, MP+2 raises to 10.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 7.5 BB

Flop: (22.5 BB, 2 players) 3 J 6
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 15 BB, Hero calls 15 BB

Turn: (52.5 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 37 BB

I have a few questions about this hand.

Firstly pre-flop. My fold to 3bet is very high (around 80% lol!) so I'm looking at this as a leak to be fixed. I'm looking for spots where I would typically fold but should continue. Is this one of those spots? Can I use the 3% 3bet stat with only 95 hands to put him on a range of JJ+,AK and maybe AQ?

I think the flop is fine since I have top pair top kicker. Raising doesn't get called by worse and folding because he might have an over pair seems absurdly tight (why call pre-flop and then fold TPTK)

The turn is where things get tricky. Can I check shove here? Fold equity calculator says I need 37% equity to break-even if he never folds. I have 42% equity against JJ+,AK but would this villain really double barrel with AK?

Is there any point check-calling the turn (obviously calling any river bet)?

In my opinion, id put him on 10s through to aces, AK, AQ but their vpip hints at LAG also which could induce some bluffs into his range. In my experience, people don't usually just flat call on the flop with a strong overpair at NL2, so raising the flop would give you this information. I'd also fold A J to a 3 bet to avoid situations like this in particular but whether I call or not would depend on their aggression factor. < 2 I'm folding, >3 I'm calling. 2-3 I'm not really sure.


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1) sounds like you open too many hands
2) no. clear fold. AQo is a fold as well
3) not really the 3b stat per say but 95h is a decent indication your opp is not a monkey and his 3b% from these positions is likely to be tight
4) correct
5) I would lean towards a fold. your opp would have to have 3b a not so tight range pre AND bet flop big AND bet turn big. unlikely combination of events. while you are not very far off from making a slightly +- ev shove considering the ranges you gave (you forgot AQs) , you would be making a costly mistake if V's range happened to be JJ+, which it very likely is
6) nope

AJo, out of position, I would just fold this pre. If you are looking for hands to continue here I would probably include AQs-ATs, QQ-99 if you are not 4betting your QQ-JJ, maybe some KQs, QJs, JTs but not all the time.

As played, flop I would call. Turn I would fold.

In regards to the shove, I feel like all the hands you are ahead of TT,AK could make a fold and everything else that beats you will probably call. It is a bit of a too high variance spot for me (I am a bit of a nit) and I'd probably wait for a better spot to take such a move, like a nut flush draw + gutshot, sets and QJs if I happened to call that pre.

Thanks for the help. Glad to hear that broadly speaking I played the hand ok. I folded the turn in the end. Interesting points about pre flop c range. I’ll start including hands like 99-TT and ATs+. Feels a bit like there would bet lots of reverse implied odds type situations calling 3bets with AJo type hands. Flop A-high and getting out kickered