Quote:
Originally Posted by Dhurd55
I agree, and I somehow didn't notice the ace of clubs so that further reduces a lot of the flush draws in his range. I got on equilab and put in the range of hands i thought he would shove with here and we had like 62% equity..
a couple questions
1. do you think i should have checked the turn? then evaluated on the river
2. Lets say i took the same line but had made better sized bets on the flop and turn and he jams is this still a call?
Well, let's do some quick math. If you bet 3/4 pot, .90 on flop, and assuming we get the same 2 callers, then the pot is 3.90 on the turn, with villain having 6.87 behind. If we again bet 3/4 pot on turn, then we are getting laid roughly 3.5:1, villain's stack + $7 pot : $4 , so we need 28% equity vs range to continue to break even. If you do fool around with equilab, you can try to construct his post flop range for getting it in on the turn. I don't have equilab here at work, but I found this nifty equity calculator here on the forums
http://gtorangebuilder.com/#equity-c...,T6s,TT_p1AcQd
I added KQ and AQ combos to his nutted range, but against purely his nutted range without these combos + a few monster draws, we are not being given the correct price to call on turn, but adding KQ / AQ makes it slightly better than breakeven. The question is whether or not he gets it in with KQ on turn considering how passively he plays. I don't know the answer to that question, but considering the sample, I don't know if we can take those out of his GII range on turn considering how suboptimally he is playing.
Also, it is a slam dunk value bet on turn. We are ahead of a multitude of hands on flop that still trail on the turn, his raise just tells us otherwise. We don't have to pot control on turn, check calling ranges on this flop are not specifically nutted combos, but turn check raises might be. We also give a free card to draws, which is a disaster. We should opt for the more aggressive play with strong hands when ranges are wide /
relatively weak, and opponents can have a wide range of draws to call us with.