UTG is 19/17/5 after 300ish hands. Hero is 28/18/8 ATM and rather aggressive postflop, with 28 VPIP due to some loser calls PF due to fish two seats to his right.

Is this a clear shove or a clear fold? A bit lost... We only beat KJs or AQ here, and lose to QQ, TT (and 22). Don't see anything else Villain could hold.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 106.7 BB
BTN: 112.3 BB
SB: 142.3 BB
Hero (BB): 448.9 BB
UTG: 174.5 BB
MP: 136.9 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

UTG raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 15 BB, UTG calls 12 BB, fold, CO calls 12 BB, fold

Flop: (51 BB, 3 players) T 2 Q
Hero bets 16.1 BB, UTG raises to 97 BB, fold, Hero ?

Villain folds to 3! pretty frequently?

Those stats aren't super aggro--not the type I'd think to be ripping KJs. You're right that it could be AQ...

At NL10 I'm pretty sure this is going to be a set or something like QT (assuming he doesn't fold to 3!'s often enough). Board is too dry and Villain's stats are too tag-ey.

It has been helpful for me, when holding overpairs and trying not to go broke, to think about SPR and pot commitment. I find this this situation to be difficult and I, like all of us, have lost a lot of money in this exact situation. So I really thought a lot about a strategy for how to play in this situation. (Someone on this 2+2 forum directed me to SPR). These concepts, SPR and PC, make this difficult situation much easier to play, imo.

In this case the pot on the flop is 51bb, and villain has 159bb left in his stack, which is the smaller of the 2 stacks. So the SPR is 3. That's an all-in SPR when holding an overpair, in my opinion. I recommend the book "Professional NLHE" by Flynn, Mehta and Miller as a good primer on this subject. When the pot gets big, we shouldn't be folding often when we have a hand. This is a big pot, as shown by the very low SPR. For that reason, I would be willing to fight over it.

Of course this is not the end of the analysis. There is a lot more to it, for one, pot commitment. You are not pot committed. You CAN fold if you want to. You should make your decision now and base it in large part on the SPR issue. I think you might as well just shove against that big raise because the raise is only going to leave him with 50 or 60 bb against a turn pot of 250bb so all the money is likely going in on the later streets. That raise is basically an all-in for him.

The villain's raise is huge. It is 6 times your cbet. That is unusual. Why do you think it is that big? Are we sure it is for value? Could it be the opposite? Could he be trying to shut down further action and just take the pot?

If he has a set and he raises you 6x your cbet, aren't you sure to fold most of your range? Let's say he has 222 and you raised all those limpers pre-flop with 88+/AJ/KQ. You will muck 88, 99, JJ, AK, AJ, KQ. (Isn't he losing value by raising this big?) The only hands you'll continue with beat him, TT and QQ and/or is the hand you hold AA (and KK) which maybe I guess he hopes you have.(?) Even if you hold AQ you may not continue against that kind of action. So you will call with a worse hand with 12 combos, you'll call with a better hand with 12 combos and coin flip with AQ (16 combos) and fold 66 combos that you would have continued with and probably put more money in with.

As a value bet, his raise size doesn't make a lot of sense. I find it suspicious. He could be holding Jacks and putting you to the test or he could be holding AQ and thinking he's best. But of course, players do all sorts of inexplicable things.

GL
Magnum