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Nl 5 nuts flop, turn, river f draw complete what is our action? Nl 5 nuts flop, turn, river f draw complete what is our action?

07-29-2018 , 07:55 AM
Hi people, what should you do if you were in my place in this hand?
We have nuts otf and elect to c/r, we bet much ott. OTR the bad card arrives what should we do? Check with the intention of call/folding if we get jammed or we make a block bet and if we get jammed we call/fold.
What is our option?
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $8.64 (172.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $13.45 (269 bb)
UTG: $6.93 (138.6 bb)
MP: $5 (100 bb)
CO: $5.13 (102.6 bb)
BTN: $5.77 (115.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K T
2 folds, CO raises to $0.10, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.05

Flop: ($0.22) A Q J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.18, Hero raises to $0.55, CO calls $0.37

Turn: ($1.32) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, CO calls $0.80

River: ($2.92) 5 (2 players)
[color="red"]Hero ???
Nl 5 nuts flop, turn, river f draw complete what is our action? Quote
07-29-2018 , 08:06 PM
In deciding whether to make a (in this case thin) value bet, the question you have to ask yourself is whether you'll win more than 50% of the time when you get called.

In this case, I think weak pairs will fold, but I think you can get calls from top pair (AK, ATs-A2s), two pair (AQ, AJ, A3s, A5s, and QJs), and sets that decided to play a little slow (AA, QQ, JJ). Depending on how tight the opponent is, the bottom of that range (weak aces) I mention may not be calling. Really nitty opponents may even get scared and fold AK and weak two pairs, so I think this is pretty opponent specific.

You obviously lose to the flushes, but I'm not sure how many flushes are actually available, with the ace, jack and ten of spades already out. KQ, K9, 98, 87, 76 and 65 are all possible flushes. I'm not sure if your opponent is playing looser and suited one gappers like 75s in his range.

In general, I think that people overestimate how many flushes are actually available (a lesson I myself am still trying to learn). In this case, it looks to me like there is enough value to be had, so I'd bet for relatively thin value and keep the sizing down.

If you bet and get raised, that is almost certainly a hand that you lose to, so I think that is a clear fold. If you check and are bet into, I think that's a really tough spot, and very opponent specific. Some opponents will see the check as weak and will bet their sets and two pairs for thin value. Some will just be happy to check behind and get to showdown. At NL10, I think the big majority are in the latter category, and so I'd fold if bet into after you check.
Nl 5 nuts flop, turn, river f draw complete what is our action? Quote
07-30-2018 , 12:27 AM
I think the only choice is to bet on the river, for a smaller size, (I'd personally say around 40-45% pot but could be wrong on exact sizing). I wouldn't call it a blocker bet since you're doing it to get value from worse more than protect yourself from flushes, but it does serve to do that as well.

If you bet at a smaller size like 40-45% pot, you'll get called by more hands that you beat than called/raised by hands you don't. Pretty clear value there IMO. If you go bigger, a lot more players on those top pair/2 pair type hands are folding, and you're losing more when your opponent does have the flush.

If you check, you're going to be in a worse situation regardless of your opponent's decision. If they check behind and would've called a small bet, you're leaving a lot of value on the table. If they bet, you're stuck in a spot where they can be making the same play with hands you beat as well as flushes.

One caveat is that betting small could be perceived as a hand scared of a flush and you couuuld be exploited by getting raised all in, but most players who have gotten to this point feel they have showdown value and that's expecting a lot of your average 5NL player. Can't imagine what draw they would have been chasing that missed (only hands that feel strong pressure to bluff to win), since the flush draw got there and the only straight draws are gutshots (besides T9).

Last edited by mycorrhizae; 07-30-2018 at 12:33 AM.
Nl 5 nuts flop, turn, river f draw complete what is our action? Quote
07-30-2018 , 10:01 AM
Otr hero bet half pot and villain jammed, hero fold. The pot odds otr was 3.5 to 1 roughly 22%. Do we have that equity in the hand? Its a good or a bad fold? Cann we call? Now reviewing this hand i think i should get called because of the good pot odds. What do you think?
Nl 5 nuts flop, turn, river f draw complete what is our action? Quote
08-01-2018 , 01:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rodream8
Otr hero bet half pot and villain jammed, hero fold. The pot odds otr was 3.5 to 1 roughly 22%. Do we have that equity in the hand? Its a good or a bad fold? Cann we call? Now reviewing this hand i think i should get called because of the good pot odds. What do you think?
The pot odds are certainly tempting, but my impression is that there just isn't anything Villain is doing this with that you beat. Eg. I think sets and two pairs would much rather flat and get to showdown than raise when you could have a flush. I guess it could also be a busted draw like Kxs that is bluffing, but I think that's also extremely unlikely.

That said, two caveats:
  1. I think this is somewhat opponent specific. Eg. someone wild enough.
  2. I'm not too, too familiar with NL5 tendencies, so my impressions could be wrong.
Nl 5 nuts flop, turn, river f draw complete what is our action? Quote

      
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