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Old 08-08-2017, 11:48 PM   #1
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 303
is my flop bluff ok?

I wanted to try changing some stuff up at the micros and have been going a little outside the curve. I had a feeling there was a lot of pair and Ace high hands I could knock out here, but I don't know if overall it was positive EV. Also I think I', justified calling with 88 against a squeeze range to mine. The flop misses V's range IMO so hence I bet.

$2.09 (104.5 bb)

$1.06 (53 bb)

$2.13 (106.5 bb)

$2.66 (133 bb)

$4.61 (230.5 bb)

$2.84 (142 bb)

$0.89 (44.5 bb)

$0.44 (22 bb)

$2.28 (114 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8c 8d
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.06, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.06, SB folds, BB raises to $0.20, MP1 folds, Hero calls $0.14

Flop: ($0.47) Td 4d 2s (2 players)
BB bets $0.23, Hero raises to $0.69, BB folds
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Old 08-09-2017, 01:43 AM   #2
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 1
Re: is my flop bluff ok?

I ran into a similar situation with pocket 10s where the board came 8 high with a single flush draw. The problem I ran into though is that the board ran out Q turn, K river and villain bet big on the river so I had to fold.

Long story short I don't know if I like the play unless you know for sure you have a tight opponent who will fold most of his ace highs. With the story you're telling I feel like you have to continue turn or else its hard to call down river, and there aren't many safe cards for you. And if you're continuing on turn, he can easily flat with all his overpairs for value knowing you'll continue.

Basically you're turning your hand into a bluff, potentially hoping to get called by ace high and have a favorable runout, even though you have good showdown value, so I think calling and evaluating the turn is a better play.
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Old 08-09-2017, 02:35 AM   #3
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 172
is my flop bluff ok?

I don't think it's s good call pre for reasons stated as the SPR is only 1.8. For the same reason I don't think it makes for a good bluff spot.

Do you have any more info on V?

Think about possible weak play, stats and showdowns? The more info the more capable we are of narrowing down a pre flop range.

There's some faulty logic here too. The only reason to bluff is to get better hands to fold, believing he has a large enough portion that he will. If you bet to get him to fold some pairs (there's only 9's that might ever muck generally) that your behind. He's simply not folding JJ+. And you are a favourite against over cards. So overall you're trying to fold out hands that you want to continue 55-66-77 ak, aq, kq and keeping in the part of his range that crushes you.

So turning 8's into a bluff here is incorrect.

But let's just say his 3bet range is;

22+, A5s+, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo

In this scenario he's a fish/rec player who watches a bit of poker, might have read an article or two. But generally doesn't have the knowledge of when to 3bet or keep positions in mind etc.

You have 55% against this guy pre. On the flop you have roughly the same.

You actually have S/D value but it's vulnerable. However there are very limited reverse implied odds. This is due to the SPR which in turn would mean he technically should call any shove with almost any equity. But he's a rec so he doesn't know to do that, a lot of recs naturally will stack of any two overs plus pairs there through instinct though "ah **** it the pots so big and I only have this left.." this is doubly true after his Cbet.

He's either made a terrible 3bet play with a short stack or he's terrible full stop.

So against that range given effective stack I'd actually just call. You're either miles ahead or miles behind. By betting he sheds the weaker part of his range but by calling you keep his bluffs in. If he has two overs he has 5 outs and you're 80% or an under pair ever with 2 outs (and not going anywhere either way).

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Last edited by Gabe16; 08-09-2017 at 02:42 AM.
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Old 08-14-2017, 07:28 PM   #4
AimHigher's Avatar
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 694
Re: is my flop bluff ok?

Calling pre seems fine to me, but on the flop you need to think about what raising actually accomplishes. As a general rule of thumb: If he won't call with worse or fold better then don't raise.

Since people don't generally like to fold overpairs and will usually fold two unpaired overs chances are your raise just isolates you against the best hands in his range. Instead, just call. You still have the best hand often and you won't have to fold if he puts a third bet in on the flop.
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Old 08-17-2017, 08:21 AM   #5
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Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 236
Re: is my flop bluff ok?

Call than see what the turn brings.
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Old 08-30-2017, 01:41 AM   #6
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sacramento, CA
Posts: 216
Re: is my flop bluff ok?

You were most likely bluffing with the best hand... which in this case a call would have been better. You let him bluff more on the turn and extract more value. He could easily have AJ+ and brick everything but continue if he picks up some type of draw OTT.
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