Villain seems a standard tightish player. A lot of his range is pockets so the flop bet here seems questionable. I like the turn bet as I pick up equity and likely fold a lot of his pocket pairs. The river bet sucks as I'm only pushing out flush draws - don't think he has many anyway as SB. Would the river bet be OK if he were BB?

888 Poker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 154.7 BB (VPIP: 15.85, PFR: 9.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 83)
BB: 82 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 6)
Hero (UTG): 98.5 BB
UTG+1: 111.8 BB (VPIP: 9.52, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
MP: 71.2 BB (VPIP: 30.43, PFR: 1.09, 3Bet Preflop: 2.44, Hands: 92)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 19.71, PFR: 9.12, 3Bet Preflop: 1.41, Hands: 342)
BTN: 295.1 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 6)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) Q 2 5
SB checks, Hero bets 3 BB, SB calls 3 BB

Turn: (13 BB, 2 players) J
SB checks, Hero bets 9.7 BB, SB calls 9.7 BB

River: (32.4 BB, 2 players) 4
SB checks, Hero bets 18 BB, SB raises to 139 BB and is all-in, fold,

The river bet seems a bit pointless. This guy's calling range after the turn is going to be a lot of AQ/KQ and maybe some sets and flush draws. You're not going to get the first 2 to fold and you're probably beating a lot of the last group with your "nut nothing" hand.

Thanks Brussel Sprout. That makes a lot of sense.

Yeah and I can check back this turn too. Depends on a few other factors but in general V’s not offering enough fold equity for my lack of hand equity. The hand equity part is due to clean outs. There’s a chunk of V’s range that makes a better hand when we make ours. 2 pair, flush’s and straights.

Against my field I’d check back unless there were extreme reasons to believe V folds a lot here and hope for a miracle non diamond 10 or to hit some sdv.


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Thanks for taking the time to reply Gabe16. I disagree about the turn bet though.

I think he has a lot of middling pairs that don't like the jack, assuming that 10s through 6s call the flop.

10s through 6s will likely fold turn - that's 30 combos. He has only 9 AQ and 9 KQ with our blockers. Plus nine QJ if he plays all of these (I wouldn't). Maybe 3 Q10s. Plus he has 12 combos of sets (if he flats these and if he calls 22 in the SB vs UTG open) and some flush draws.

For a tightish villain I wouldn't expect him to have too many flush draws in the SB. J10d, KJd, K10d, A10d all make sense, maybe 910d and A9d.

So he has roughly 42 value combos he will fold + 6 flush draws he will continue with and I'm ahead of. Against 30 combos I can likely get rid of.

I bet 9.7 into 13 so need 42% folds to show an instant profit on the bet.

30 out of 78 is 38% so the equity from catching a 10, or A or K will make the bet profitable. I agree the A and K are not clean but still should make money if we catch one and proceed carefully.

That said, I think those pocket pairs probably fold to a smaller bet size so 8 would be a better betsize. Then the 38% of folds makes the bet profitable immediately.