So ,this is a situation that happens sometimes and I´m trying to find the most optimal way to play. I have AhAs (it can be KhKs also) somewhere between EP and MP, raise 3bbs, villain, standard TAG, calls from CO, BU, SB or BB. Flop is something like Th 8c 3c. I also knows he folds 65% of times against a cbet.

I bet here 40% of pot, as I want him to call with flush draws, small pps, etc. He then raises 3.5x my bet. I don´t think he has KK or QQ, as this type of player usually reraises these hands pf. After the call pf, there are suited connectors, one gappers, flush draws and flopped sets on his range, as far as I know. So, what does that raise otf means really? Because I´m obviously a big underdog vs sets (10% vs 90% if I recall correctly).

I call TAG when people have stats like vpip 16 pfr 14 3b 7 and af 1.5-3.0 (full ring). I don´t have other reads besides that and what was stated before. With that information, is this always a fold?

Am I missing value by checking this flop instead of betting? Should I bet more, knowing that it will fold worse hands, and also give information about my range?

Even against 2 pairs I lose a little more than 2/3 of the times.

Forgot to mention that we are effective 100 bbs deep. Limits 2NL, 5NL or 10NL.

Against TAG players with a high AF I like to call and play cautiously, realizing that they should be and probably are playing most of their draws aggressively, esp in position on us.

If their AF is low and I don't think it's likely they are making big plays I just fold.

Pot odds is important to consider. So is minimum defense frequency.

I think it's appropriate to always bet cuz we are ahead most of the time, and I also like a small bet size considering we are targeting the A hi, weak pair, and draws for value.

Here is a hand I am just looking over that's similar:



Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.10(BB)
SB ($7.15)
BB ($7.95)
HERO ($13.5)
CO ($10.45)
BTN ($9.66)

Dealt to Hero T T

HERO Raises To $0.3 (Rem. Stack: 13.2), CO Calls $0.3 (Rem. Stack: 10.15), BTN Calls $0.3 (Rem. Stack: 9.36), SB Folds, BB Folds

Flop ($1.05) 5 7 8
HERO Bets $0.52 (Rem. Stack: 12.68), CO Folds, BTN Calls $0.52 (Rem. Stack: 8.84)

Turn ($2.09) 5 7 8 2
HERO Bets $0.94 (Rem. Stack: 11.74), BTN Raises To $8.84 (allin) (Rem. Stack: 0.00), HERO Calls $7.9 (Rem. Stack: 3.84)

River ($19.77) 5 7 8 2 6

BTN shows 7 7

BTN wins $18.79

My analysis:

best case scenario i have 42% equity if villain is shoving combo draws and big flush draws
25% vs sets, two pair, and over cards

should estimate equity at 33%

pot odds: 1.5:1
min def freq: 33% (QQ+, 8d8h, 8d8c, 8h8c, 7h7s, 7h7c, 7s7c, 5d5s, 5d5c, 5s5c)
equity req: 40%

I do not have a solid enough read or enough equity to call vs what is most likely a strong re-raising range. TT is not top 33% of range, QQ is smallest pocket pair to call off with. Should fold.

What is the SPR? 9
What is the board? 8 hi coordinated rainbow
Who has a range advantage? no range advantage
Who has a capped range? villain
Who has an uncapped range? hero
Who benefits most from turns and rivers? villain, has more draws
Who is my opponent? loose agro decent villlain

Should I bet? Yes, I have a strong vulnarable hand need to bet for value and to protect.
How often would villain fold? 48%
How often would villain call? 52%
How much would he call? half pot
What would he call with? a hi, weak pairs, draws
Can I defend against bluff-raises? not comfortably
Should I check to induce? no, hand is too vulnerable board is too coordinated.
How often would villain stab? often
Should I go for a check-raise? no, not strong enough to check raise for value, too strong to check raise as a bluff.

Thank you, that hand and your analysis is exactly what I was looking for.

Given that board and the pot odds, I would be folding (crying) even pocket aces here (esp the ace of spades), as I don´t thinking a decent villain would semi-bluff going all in the nut flush draw ott. And calling with QQ+ preflop, vs 2 ppl already in the hand and the blinds still too act would not be the best idea for him either.