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Old 11-13-2007, 07:42 PM   #101
MyTurn2Raise
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

now you guys are getting it
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Old 11-13-2007, 07:55 PM   #102
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

The last 2 pages of this thread have actually been really interesting. I think that even full stack players could get alot out of reading this stuff even if they weren't going to short stack. Enlighten us further Mt2R
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Old 11-13-2007, 08:13 PM   #103
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

now, we can begin

LESSON ONE: The Resteal

I remember distinctly when I took the leap from being a rakeback/bonus shortstacking pro to making a real profit. The credit actually goes to 2p2 poster Vanveen. There was a thread with Grimstarr complaining about hit and runners. The amazing thing is this thread turned into a theoretical and actual goldmine for those that could read what was being implied. I wasn't that smart, but did find the starting block. This is what Vanveen wrote
Quote:
Helpful hint, cero. I challenge you to outline your obvious adjustment that both nullifies the shortstack's edge and maintains a style of play most would consider worthy of the descriptors 'loose' and 'aggressive'. The way I use those words, it is the very nature of LAG play to overplay the blinds in an attempt to induce costly overadjustments or distort information well enough that the LAG gains a greater edge when the pots and bets get bigger. In the process the LAG makes himself susceptible to a shortstack concerned only with pot size, pot equity vs. easily estimated hand ranges, folding equity vs. easily estimated hand ranges, and simple flop situations w/pot sizes that are usually within a very small range. The only way to reduce the edge a shortstack can have is by playing tighter and less aggressively, almost to the point where I really doubt you're reaching the threshold required to get the adjustments you want and need.

And I don't understand how a shortstack's cards are any more face-up than a LAG's or how you're going to force a numerate shortstack to make ill-advised committment raises. We're dealing with %s - LAG raises 28% of hands from the CO. He will call a shove w/x% of hands in his range. He will fold y%. Do some math, figure out what hands we should be shoving. If we're really ambitious we can analyse flops and maybe just call sometimes. Tedious, but fairly easy. If LAG shows capacity to adjust we estimate adustment %s. HINT: Nearly everyone at six-max tables is raising too often and just dumping money to players w/<30bb (do the math w/availale database!) who can work a calculator and move their slider bar. If they stopped raising that often the games would change considerably and LAGs would have a smaller edge (as would everyone because the information being given would be PURER and more amenable to analysis). That is a fact.

Ding Ding Ding

6max and fullring no-limit has come to be dominated by players that are very aggressive preflop. This is fine in a 100+BB stack game as position, aggression, hand reading, etc play such a huge role and building pots early helps in stacking opponents. However, it doesn't work when someone can use the blunt tool of the all-in preflop to destroy the position and later aggression. Suddenly, the shortie is the aggressor and forces the original raiser to know the math of hand v range.

Vanveen lead me to crack out the excel and pokerstove (or SNGwizard)...whatever works and see what hands are +ev to push verse different villains.

It all became a math equation since it became a one-street game.

let's put it all in terms of blinds
I had to find which hands had a positive expectation, while the variables at play were the opponent's initial raise size, the effective stack size, the opponent's initial raise range, and what the opponent would call with out of that range.

it works out to something like this:
f(R+1.5) + c(w((E+1.5)-1/20(2E+1.5))-l(E)) > 0
where
f = % of time initial raiser folds to push
c = % of time initial raiser calls push
R = Open raise size of initial raiser
w = win % of pushing hand v initial raiser's calling range
l = loss % of pushing hand v initial raiser's calling range

Basically, those terms account for the money won when the inital raiser folds to the push and the amount won win the push hand beats out the calling hand outweighing the amount lost when the calling hand beats the push hand.

Here, the action of the table dictates the initial raise size and the effective stack. The shortstacker must estimate the initial opening range and the calling range.

NOTE: this is assuming a BB and SB and a 5% rake. All of this stuff can change as well as there being overcallers...yummy!

the solution is to simplify for w and find out what win pct your hand needs verse a villain calling range.


w > ( (c-1)(R+1.5)/c + E) / (19E/10 +57/40)

Luckily, there are some good ways to find a villain's initial raising range. Many 2p2ers have given it away for free in posts. I recall that I looked at a thread where punter 11235 asked the MSNL forum to help him play 22/19 or something like that. Big Jim and AZK came through with some dynamite responses for hand ranges. In addition, there are numerous written sources that give away ranges as well.

Here are some
13.1% Common NIT range up front from forum posts 66+,ATo+,A9s+, KT+, Qjs
15.8% Common TAG range up front from forum posts 22+, A2s+, Kts+, T9s+, AT+, KQ
19.8 Tight players cut/but range from sources 66+, BW, A8+, K9
28.8 Very common stealing range
22,+A2+,K9o+,K8s+,Q9s+,Q9o+,J9o+,J8s+,T8s+,T9o,65s +,75s+

So, if we can guesstimate that someone steals with the 28.8% range, but will only call a push with the 19.8% range, we know what hands to push that are +ev.

For example, our effective stack is 20BBs. The initial raiser uses the 28.8% range for stealing and opens up 3BBs. If our previous play with the player makes us think he'll call with teh 19.8% range earlier, it's +ev to push 55+, A8s+, KJs+, A9o+, KJo+ (yes, I've done the math on all of these things).

This is the simplest scenario. Things get much more complicated with overcallers and players acting behind you and whatnot. However, this is the root of the most powerful tool. You still have to estimate opponent raising and calling ranges. Your opponents will adjust these over time playing with you. However, you'll successfully negate and profit from one of the full stacks big weapons--preflop aggression.
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Old 11-13-2007, 08:18 PM   #104
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

one ends up with pretty charts like this one
for the 28.8% steal range and the 19.8% calling ranges listed above

Effective stack listed, than initial raise size, than the positive range to push



I 'blacked' out a mnemonic device name I gave to the hand range
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Old 11-13-2007, 08:18 PM   #105
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

obviously, these can be done for a myriad of situations.....I have done it and you can as well
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Old 11-13-2007, 08:22 PM   #106
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

future lessons

*It doesn't have to be a 2-street game
*opening from the small blind
*The effective 2-street move (no it doesn't have to be a 2-street game, but sometimes it is real beneficial to make it such)
and more
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Old 11-13-2007, 08:33 PM   #107
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

not also that with the ranges listed above, I'm showing exploitive charts

I highly recommend the discussion in the latest book Kill Everyone on exploitive verse equilibrium play. One can easily get to equilibrium solutions for initial raise ranges independent of the calling ranges.
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Old 11-13-2007, 08:34 PM   #108
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Nice start.

I think defining a particular villain's call range to be the most difficult. Some are more stubborn than others, but , to me, there isn't a good HUD stat that helps me set the call range.
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Old 11-13-2007, 09:27 PM   #109
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Quote:
f(R+1.5) + c(w((E+1.5)-1/20(2E+1.5))-l(E)) > 0
where
f = % of time initial raiser folds to push
c = % of time initial raiser calls push
R = Open raise size of initial raiser
w = win % of pushing hand v initial raiser's calling range
l = loss % of pushing hand v initial raiser's calling range

I feel like I'm watching some bad WW II movie.

"Yu hev zee sekrit foemoola? May I zee it?"

BTW, if the 2+2 forum server crashes tonight and MT2R never posts again, I promise I'll never buy in for less than the max...
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Old 11-13-2007, 10:00 PM   #110
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Quote:
one ends up with pretty charts like this one
for the 28.8% steal range and the 19.8% calling ranges listed above

Effective stack listed, than initial raise size, than the positive range to push



I 'blacked' out a mnemonic device name I gave to the hand range
That's almost exactly what my 6max re-steal chart looks like. Math is freaky like that. I didn't pull the ranges from 2p2 posts though. I (and a friend of mine with whom I collaborated generalized from several hundred thousand datamined hands.
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Old 11-13-2007, 10:18 PM   #111
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

I'm so glad that I waded through the first half of this thread. I won't be SSing anytime soon, but I think this will give me a good basis of how to start learning how to counter this strategy.
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Old 11-14-2007, 01:01 AM   #112
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

I have 2 questions.

1. Serious question. This sounds awefully like a push/fold application of the ICM-based SNG strategy. However, SNGs are geared towards winning top spot in a fixed prize pool (thus dealing in chip equity). How's this applicable to the cash game with unlimited buy-ins?
2. Silly question. Let's say you start as a SS with 20 BBs. using this push/fold strategy you double-up and the double-up again. You're no longer a SS. Do you leave the table and go play somewhere else?
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Old 11-14-2007, 01:36 AM   #113
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

alex thats called ratholing and people hate it, in fact I think its the main reason people hate short stackers. When I Short stacked clearing the stars bonus I would buy to full after doubling up I hated playing mid stack poker.
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Old 11-14-2007, 01:51 AM   #114
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

dude, wtf are you doing?
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Old 11-14-2007, 01:58 AM   #115
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

ooops

forgot E = effective stack size in the formula above
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Old 11-14-2007, 02:03 AM   #116
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Quote:
Nice start.

I think defining a particular villain's call range to be the most difficult. Some are more stubborn than others, but , to me, there isn't a good HUD stat that helps me set the call range.
yep...that just comes from experience as it is extreme from individual to individual how they will respond to shortstackers

this brings up the equilibrium solution

the graph and example I should had to do with exploitive solutions--trying to maximize verse a particular opponent

however, one can just come up with a bland equilibrium solution that will be +ev verse any calling range

play around in pokerstove and find the hands that work no matter the villain calling range
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Old 11-14-2007, 02:28 AM   #117
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Quote:
dude, wtf are you doing?
The fact that this response is only found in short-stacking threads is amusing.

Any strategy post is giving away free info about how to play better poker. This is the same IMO.

Short-stacking is no different IMO than playing like 10/4 or 8/2 or whatever some of the super nits out there play. You just need to adapt.


In relation to the short-stacking strategy, I can easily see how ss'ing 6max is more profitable as the ranges people use are wider.

In FR, most of the "good" short-stackers are getting it in pf only with like TT+/AQ+ because raising ranges are more easily defined IMO. In 6max, you need to raise more to at least stay with the blinds -&gt; larger raising ranges -&gt; more EV to push a wider range against a possible steal.

A lot of SS strategy can be applied to or taken from MTT strategy, since very rarely will players have more than 50BB in a pot later in a tournament and you need to be able to balance ranges and re-steal if you want to be at least a decent MTT'er.

Your analysis seems very interesting MT2R. I will check it out over break after I finish my 15 page paper..woohoo
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Old 11-14-2007, 02:49 AM   #118
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

lol donkaments
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Old 11-14-2007, 07:47 AM   #119
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

MT2R: You're a [censored] idiot. I'm sick of you idiots posting info about shortstacking to try and get attention. You're not good. You're not cool. You're probably not even a winning shortstacker at decent limits. Shut. the. [censored]. up.



Kursoh is getting a day off for posting this - so don't follow his example - diebitter
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Old 11-14-2007, 07:50 AM   #120
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Quote:
MT2R: You're a [censored] idiot. I'm sick of you idiots posting info about shortstacking to try and get attention. You're not good. You're not cool. You're probably not even a winning shortstacker at decent limits. Shut. the. [censored]. up.


kurosh,

you were so much more entertaining when you were a degen limit player, than a nl SS
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Old 11-14-2007, 08:08 AM   #121
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Quote:
MT2R: You're a [censored] idiot. I'm sick of you idiots posting info about shortstacking to try and get attention. You're not good. You're not cool. You're probably not even a winning shortstacker at decent limits. Shut. the. [censored]. up.

Okay, Kurosh can take a day off to cool his boots.

Next one gets 2 days, and so on and so forth.

db
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Old 11-14-2007, 08:44 AM   #122
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

MTTR is making some friends.

On that note, I think I'm gonna try this shortstacking 6max thingy.
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Old 11-14-2007, 09:49 AM   #123
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

mttr didnt really say much in his post, im sure a monkey could figure out what he just wrote, its not very complicated or counter intuitive.

I KNOW THAT 6MAX SHORTSTACKING IS MORE PROFITABLE. but its ok cause you can hop from table to table and avoid them (which is my first determinate of table selection). I really dont mind you posting this stuff cause its pretty much common knowledge to anyone whos a reasonably intelligent poker mind (that isnt stuck in 2p2 groupthink mode). Go ahead, all that will happen is the multitablers will become more taggish, and eventually nulify your edge due to rake. They will also adjust well to your limping range and force you to make mistakes much like a tourney donk. and since you probably arent the best postflop players then it will chomp out even more of your small edge creating just another higer variance way to make some rakeback wooooohooooo.

edit to say- I really do like MTTR even though he does shorstack and is posting this stuff.
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Old 11-14-2007, 01:14 PM   #124
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Nice post MT2R. I guess your paranoia was warranted. It's awesome how people say "this information is useless" and "it's going to ruin the game" in the same post. Gold.
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Old 11-14-2007, 02:29 PM   #125
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Quote:
MT2R: You're a [censored] idiot. I'm sick of you idiots posting info about shortstacking to try and get attention. You're not good. You're not cool. You're probably not even a winning shortstacker at decent limits. Shut. the. [censored]. up.



Kursoh is getting a day off for posting this - so don't follow his example - diebitter
How can this be, Kurosh is using god mode, and would that not make him immune to your puny mod ways?
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