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Old 02-07-2008, 10:37 AM   #401
GaryTheGoat
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fishing2do View Post
We treat every re-raise as a shove right?

So let's say we are in the CO, and we Raise 2.5X. We get re-raised by the Btn & the blinds fold. Our Effective stack is 20BB.

Now we have to call 17.5BB for a pot of 1.5+(2*20) = 41.5. This gives us 42.1% pot odds, so our equity needs to be >42.1%
vs. TT+,AQs,AK reraise range:
with 99+,AQs,AK -> 47%
with 99+,AJs,KQs,AQ -> 43.7%
with 99+,ATs,AJ,KQ -> 39.6%

So in this case we would call his reraise with 99+,AJs,KQs,AQo .. perhaps adding AJo
Is this line of thinking correct for these situations?


What it generally boils down to in Re-raise situations is that you need to tighten up considerably since you don't have Fold-Equity, and your hand is likely up against a range of very good hands, thus low Hand-Equity. The only way to counter this seems to be playing only your best hands vs. reraises.
I've been using this Rule of Thumb (ROT) for when to call a re-shove. What do you think? Accurate enough?

Calling All-in 3-Bets:
ROT= w>50%-(R%E/2)
Where:
ROT=Rule of Thumb
w=Winning % required
R%E=Your initial raise % of effective stack
Assumption: Rake=Blinds


R%E ROT E12 E=15 E=18 E21 E24
.10>.450 xn/a xn/a xn/a .457 .459
.15>.425 xn/a .426 .429 .432 .434
.20>.400 .396 .401 .404 .407 .408
.25>.375 .372 .376 .379 .381 .383
.30>.350 .347 .351 .354 .356 .357
.33>.333 .332 .336 .339 .341 .342
.40>.300 .297 .301 .303 .305 .306
.45>.275 .272 .276 .278 .279 .281
.50>.250 .248 .251 .253 .254 .255

The ROT is the winning percentage that is needed for positive ev.
The E12 through E24 % were calculated with assumption and appear to be close enough to ROT, especially considering that the real "guess work" is in determining villian's 3-bet range. Realtime Hud provides 3-bet numbers. PT3, HM and PokerEV are in the process of providing same.

Once I determine what range villian will 3-bet, I merely look in the appropriate Calling Range Chart, find my hand, compare to ROT and call if % is >.

What it really boils down to for me in Calling All-in 3-bet situations is that you need to accurately determine villian's 3-bet range.

You forgot about the rake.
My ROT for your example would be:
w>50-(12.5/2)
w>50-6.25
w>43.75


Maybe MTTR's cleaned up chart will shed some light on this matter.
Edit
Thanks,

gTg

Last edited by GaryTheGoat; 02-07-2008 at 10:47 AM. Reason: Include example ROT
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Old 02-11-2008, 04:56 AM   #402
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

^^^^
WTF?
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Old 02-15-2008, 09:02 AM   #403
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Jet View Post
Teaser for a project I've been working on...



4 slide bar moves vs. 6 mouse-clicks
Very Nice.


I guess I have no choice but to add auto-importation of my pocket cards to remain in the league
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Old 02-15-2008, 04:49 PM   #404
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

for those that are into this, a very nice piece of software just came out
pokerazor

if you go back and read the lessons on how to have a powerful 2-street game--you'll find this software rocks

it also helps in setting up the 4-street game as well in knowing when to c-bet
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Old 02-15-2008, 07:52 PM   #405
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Pardon my lazyness, but i havent read the whole thread so appoligies if these have been answered already but whats the avg win rate a SS could earn at NL 25 and up?
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Old 02-16-2008, 03:56 AM   #406
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

read the thread...probably page 3 if your preferences are set right
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Old 02-20-2008, 05:26 PM   #407
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

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Originally Posted by SteelWeaver View Post
Very Nice.


I guess I have no choice but to add auto-importation of my pocket cards to remain in the league
I found a way to import my cards into excel from the chat window using AutoHotKey to simulate mouseclicks and ctrl-C ctrl-V.

This is the interface I thought about using (for 4-tabling)

But I do like how yours shows all the cards (ŗ la pokerstove)

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Old 03-03-2008, 12:22 PM   #408
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fishing2do View Post
We treat every re-raise as a shove right?

So let's say we are in the CO, and we Raise 2.5X. We get re-raised by the Btn & the blinds fold. Our Effective stack is 20BB.

Now we have to call 17.5BB for a pot of 1.5+(2*20) = 41.5. This gives us 42.1% pot odds, so our equity needs to be >42.1%
vs. TT+,AQs,AK reraise range:
with 99+,AQs,AK -> 47%
with 99+,AJs,KQs,AQ -> 43.7%
with 99+,ATs,AJ,KQ -> 39.6%

So in this case we would call his reraise with 99+,AJs,KQs,AQo .. perhaps adding AJo
Is this line of thinking correct for these situations?


What it generally boils down to in Re-raise situations is that you need to tighten up considerably since you don't have Fold-Equity, and your hand is likely up against a range of very good hands, thus low Hand-Equity. The only way to counter this seems to be playing only your best hands vs. reraises.

Hi Fishing,
I think there is a serious error in your thinking:

It's ok to put your reraising opponent on a range like TT+,AQs+, AKo, but you should not put your own hand on a range, like you did above.

Of course, you know your own hand exactly and have to do the calculations for each hand separately.

99 only wins 32.91% against opponents range, the weakest pair you should play here is JJ with 44.19%.

The weakest offsuit non-pair hand here is AKo with 42.87% wins.

The weakest suited hand is AKs (45.7%), even AQs wins only 35.56%.


So the correct all-in hands against the range of TT+, AQs+, AKo should only be JJ+, AKo, AKs, even tighter than in your original post
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Old 03-20-2008, 03:54 PM   #409
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

For the records: I stopped shortstacking. It was an interesting experiment, I have learnt some new aspects of the game, but it does not worth. I could win much more with fullstack poker.

PS. variance sucks. I have Sklansky bucks for 40 short buyin.
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Old 03-20-2008, 08:12 PM   #410
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
yeah...about to respond to your PM, but glad you posted it here....I haven't been publicly posting any PMs without permission


Your math is exactly right in that you need w > 45.54%

However, that 'w' is for each individual hand verse the range at play, not for the whole range that you push

you look to see which hands exceed that winrate verse the calling range

the equation spits back +ev hands v range

what I've looked at is which hands exceed that winrate v the calling ranges---I posted the individual hands v range data earlier to help those with the initiative to use it. I haven't gone the step or two beyond that in posting other than to put up an image of what it looks like, because I'm still debating whether it's worth it to put out a guide that any Tom, Dick, or Jane could use.

Here is each individual hand verse the 19.8% calling range
<snip>

I picked out the hands with w&gt;45.54% as the +ev ones

Perhaps this is a stupid question, and it may be since i'm new at making loads of calculations, but why do you do it that way?
Maybe I missed the context of your post, but doesn't it make sense to also include hands whose EV vs opp's range is smaller than 45.54 in this case so that we might gain a little extra from the added money gained via FE? What i mean is resteal shoving more hands would lose some equity when called, but wouldn't it make that equity back from the times villain folds? as well as disguising our shoves a bit?

I used this formula:

(a*b) - (t*(20-(e*38))

where
a= percentage of times villain folds to push
b= dead money in the pot
t = percentage of times villain calls
e = our range's equity vs villain's perceived shove-calling range
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Old 03-20-2008, 09:05 PM   #411
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

obv, the result of the formula is our final equity. e is found via pokerstove
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Old 05-08-2008, 02:06 AM   #412
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

This is he type of warm welcome I got for posting SS'ing strategy advise on another big poker forum. I got the thread locked and this warning in my PM.


This is a Warning!

We do not endorse or condone any kind of shortstacking we believe its detrimental for the game, do not post something like that again.

Thanks in advance for your cooperation,
The Mod Staff

(Do not reply to this message. No one will receive it.)


I SS'ed for 24k hands at 25NL with 4.3 ptbb/100. I no longer do this unless i'm bored. It's not real poker. It's no fun and there's nothing to learn from it. My goal in poker is to grow and learn and SS'ing doesn't do that for me. I know 24k hands isn't a large sample, but it's all i could do before i got sick of it. fwiw, my strategy was a bit tighter and more aggressive than talked about in this thread, and NO, i'm not sharing. Sorry.
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Old 05-08-2008, 02:28 AM   #413
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

wtf, who bump this thread? die in a fire
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Old 05-08-2008, 01:57 PM   #414
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

I still get PMs on this thread all the time. Here is my response

Quote:
Glad you liked the thread. I don't discuss poker strategy anymore, shortstacking or fullstacking. I've moved onto other things with my time. I suggest you try other known shortstackers with your request for ss'ing info. Most are much better shortstackers than myself. Also, you might just want to post a general looking for a shortstacking study group in the long thread. Some interested and learning shortstackers stay subscribed to thread updates. I wish you luck. If I change my position, I'll let you know.

Bret

BTW-I'm not being silent on strategy in any sort of witholding information scheme. It's more that I'm in a 'groove' in my game right now and am afraid that thinking to hard about any aspect will ruin the balance I've achieved the last 4-5 months.
LOL @ a gambling forum still so paranoid about anyone posting information on ss'ing
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Old 11-06-2008, 03:28 AM   #415
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

I have a interesting situation, say with 20bb, utg, using sng power tools and chip EV (6 max), it says to

Push hands: AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,66,AKs,AQs,AQo+,AJs,ATs,A7s,A5s,A4s ,A3s,A2s,KTs+,QJs (8.4%)

vs an equal calling range for the rest of the 5 players of TT+,AQs+,AKo (Which is pretty standard?)

Push hands: 88+,AQ+ (5.6%)

VS

66+,ATs+,AJo+

Is that right or am I doing something wrong. I adjusted the blinds.
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Old 12-08-2008, 11:46 AM   #416
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Huh, I'm really confused. I haven't read the whole thread yet but I just glanced through and saw that someone suggested that if you raise JJ and get reraised you should fold..??

My default here is always call. Perhaps the games you play are tighter; I usually select 40%+ tables to join on stars, but by the time I've joined most of them would be around 30% due to fish busting out, sometimes as low as 25%, but still I can't see how folding JJ is the correct move readless. Against someone with less than 15% VPIP, maybe, but SSS is mainly aimed at fish, correct?

Actually I was PMed and sent here. I'm not a very good player, but I SS sometimes to bonus whore and when I'm tired. I transition between short stack and fullstack; that is to say, I would double/triple up, finish the orbit, then decide whether to stay or not. SS gives me a chance to pick up some basic vpip stats before I play and find optimal tables, and it's also highly profitable in itself. I posted my basic strategy at a request here: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32...84/index2.html

It's the beginner's forum, and I myself am not a very good poker player, but I figured I'd put my observations here. I haven't read ed miller's guide or his other essays, but I run at 12.43 bb/100 (not ptbb) over 37k hands 16-24 tabling 25NL.

I've also read some comments about limping and such being terrible, but as I mention in my post, lower bb counts mean that you will be more willing to go to the felt with top pair marginal kicker, etc. I also sometimes flat call with low-mid pocket pairs, not to setmine, but to shove over when on the flop if I think the flop missed his range, etc. I also squeeze/bluff shove over raiser + limpers sometimes, limp shove, etc, cold call with aces (villain's call 3vet range is much smaller than their cbet/call shove on flop range imho; SSS is not about playing good players so you do not need to play unexploitably; shoving marginal AQs, etc and flat calling or non-all-in-raising AA KK will very often NOT be exploited by fish). Also, I don't always stop and go, etc, I will balance my unexploitable shove (K9s from the button) by open shoving with AKs also...

My stats are:

bb/100: 12.43
VPIP%: 15.4
PFR: 9.1
AGG. 2.9
Agg%:21.4
WTSD: 40
W$SD% 49.5
WWSF: 37
3Bet: 5
4bet: 3.6
call 3bet: 49.3

6ptbb/100 is not amazing, especially at 25NL, but considering that it's 16-24 table, I think these results indicate that my strategy is effective to a degree, and that not shoving on any flop is not necessarily bad. You will notice that my vpip pfr ratio is pretty pathetic.

On the whole, my strategy is very different from what I've been hearing people talk about, ie shove AJs+ AQo+, TT+. I've raised 22 UTG, open limped KQ, and all sorts of "bad" things.

Comments?

btw, over 1k hands, my bb/100 at 50NL is 2-3ptbb/100 only, so a significant drop. I also find that table selection factors hugely; I only SS in the prime times, then move to 6max, which is my usual game.

edit: I haven't read every post in the thread yet, so if I said anything stupid or already mentioned --I imagine a lot of it has been covered in the 20 or so pages I have not yet read-- do forgive me. I will read as soon as I can, but I just thought I'd post my experience, and perhaps there's something helpful in it.
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Old 12-08-2008, 06:47 PM   #417
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

I just realized that my post was entirely out of context; I apologize for not checking the date or reading the thread first (I was going to have my internet cut, so I decided to fit in a reply, thinking it's an ongoing thread).

I figured a micro stakes fullring thread wouldn't be about 6max 400-1kNL, but that shows what I know.
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Old 04-14-2009, 01:28 AM   #418
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

so shortstacking is bad?
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Old 04-24-2009, 07:31 PM   #419
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

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Originally Posted by rgballin View Post
so shortstacking is bad?
Philosophically, maybe - maybe not.

Economically, same answer.

Some theorists think poker is a game of skill and as deeper the stacks, as more skill requires - and I agree. But poker is also a game of luck, would other say, and because of that the luck should have some part of the game - and I agree.

I would not say that professionals fully shall rule out the philosophical implications, but it might hurt your profit to play with stack size which not benefit your economic interest regardless of your philosophical beliefs.

All in all: Most players suck at poker and to play shortstack limit the losses.
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Old 04-24-2009, 09:22 PM   #420
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Some people want to play poker, others prefer to make money.
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Old 04-25-2009, 01:19 AM   #421
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by GiantBuddha View Post
Effective stack size. If 8 players have 20BB each, and one player has 100BB, then everyone's playing a 20BB game, until someone doubles up. One player has a deep stack, but he's not playing a deep stack.

Cash game =/= tournament
can't really disagree at this one bit math wise is everyone is 20 30 or 40 besides one player that the effective stack size til the fore mentioned double up

so basically until some hands unfold he's correct two hours in a session throw it out the window

look i don't see either way being right or wrong i had more success w/ a SS but honestly hated winning 20 bb pots just got so lame.

PLUS AINT IT FUN TO SOMETIMES PUT A BEAT ONE SOMEONE.
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Old 04-25-2009, 02:04 AM   #422
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kos13 View Post
Kill yourselves. All of you.

(Not a threat...I'm asking politely for you guys to all go jump off a bridge. Please.)
this has to be allowed asking any member of society that you deem expendable to do the honor thing and take the dive off a cliff is only asking and not demanding anything at all right.

but for what its worth this info is fantastic and i am enjoying reading all of it so far.
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Old 04-25-2009, 03:10 AM   #423
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

yeah... I get email messages whenever someone adds to this thread
yeah... I still get a few PMs every month asking me to coach them

I kind of stopped with any of it. It turns out that this strategy largely appeals to the lamest of lame poker players. I was fooled at first because I knew good shortstackers. I get questions from guys shortstacking 200NL fullring, 100NL fullring, 50NL fullring on Poker Stars. Are you ****ing kidding me? I make this whole thread and that is where you shortstack! Take some time to try and understand the theory. Go to aggressive 6 max games where it actually pays! gah!
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Old 04-25-2009, 03:01 PM   #424
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
yeah... I get email messages whenever someone adds to this thread
yeah... I still get a few PMs every month asking me to coach them

I kind of stopped with any of it. It turns out that this strategy largely appeals to the lamest of lame poker players. I was fooled at first because I knew good shortstackers. I get questions from guys shortstacking 200NL fullring, 100NL fullring, 50NL fullring on Poker Stars. Are you ****ing kidding me? I make this whole thread and that is where you shortstack! Take some time to try and understand the theory. Go to aggressive 6 max games where it actually pays! gah!
Here is the issue: NL can be tough and people want it "easy" or to build a BR, or to earn more in RB, or more. Suffice to say that I was very curious and read the entire thing...

I don't think you were fooled or sucked in - you wrote, "Hey, let's consider this?" Why not shake things up? You did and it was very informative.

Personally, anything lower than 200NL(?), more money is made playing with a full stack and not a short one.

Plus, this thread was linked from an Internet Poker thread. I think that a natural progression is consider short stacking to save one's sanity. As long as it's temporary (or as long as one is playing higher), short stack poker is a beginning rather than an ending.

Thanks for writing it though...and no, I don't want coaching. ;-)

Last edited by Eric Stoner; 04-25-2009 at 03:02 PM. Reason: Clearing up full = full stack and not full ring...not that there's anything wrong with that...
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Old 04-25-2009, 06:07 PM   #425
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Re: M2TR shortstacker illuminati thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
Plus, this thread was linked from an Internet Poker thread. I think that a natural progression is consider short stacking to save one's sanity. As long as it's temporary (or as long as one is playing higher), short stack poker is a beginning rather than an ending.
I think it is the ending. Considering that the brain donít work so good when you get older and closer to the end, short stacking is a way to stay in business. (Own experience of course.)

And I believe No Limit will die as the main game which attract the fish, which I think will happen within 2-3 years time. So imo we approach the end for NL aswell.
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