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Luck in poker Luck in poker

09-30-2018 , 08:46 PM
All of those strategies people talking on the internet how to play poker may as well be a load of bull.

Its all about luck.
Some people are always lucky and some people are ALWAYS unlucky.

If I lose 90% + when I am ahead than there is something wrong.

While I am writhing this message 95 puts me all in for no reason, I call with AK and I am out of the tournament.

If this happens 9/10 for years and years how can I climb up the stakes??
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09-30-2018 , 08:59 PM
Troll?

95s against AKs, assuming you're telling the truth... Is something like 65%. Depending on who you are, that's a flip. You're another one that takes AKs to the graveyard. Generally speaking if you don't have an appetite for variance, don't call a jam with AK pre. You're either flipping or you're way behind. Calling off AK pre for your tournament life makes you a donk.

You don't lose 90% of the times your ahead, because that's statistically impossible. Unless you're getting into some major marginal spots. Chances are you aren't ahead when you think you are. I know that sounds harsh, but it's true. Losing 9/10 flips for YEARS isn't a thing. The problem isn't with poker, it's with your record keeping.

I was going to go into how, as humans we tend to only remember the negatives... But I think maybe you're just venting, so I'll spare you.

I agree, you'll never move up in stakes.

Quit.
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09-30-2018 , 09:29 PM
Nop not trolling or venting just telling the truth.

Something like 98% of all poker hands ever played are won with cards.
Whether you are behind or ahead if you hit the cards you win.

12bb is a reasonable all in call with AK.
The question you should be asking is how did I get to 12bb.
The answer is by getting 16 bad beats.

If you want to talk statistics, if someone deposits $20 and runs it into 5 million there is only one explanation for that, luck.

You are living in denial my friend.

I mean look at all the "pros", living evidence of what I am talking about.
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10-01-2018 , 06:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Havick
Troll?

95s against AKs, assuming you're telling the truth... Is something like 65%. Depending on who you are, that's a flip. You're another one that takes AKs to the graveyard. Generally speaking if you don't have an appetite for variance, don't call a jam with AK pre. You're either flipping or you're way behind. Calling off AK pre for your tournament life makes you a donk.

You don't lose 90% of the times your ahead, because that's statistically impossible. Unless you're getting into some major marginal spots. Chances are you aren't ahead when you think you are. I know that sounds harsh, but it's true. Losing 9/10 flips for YEARS isn't a thing. The problem isn't with poker, it's with your record keeping.

I was going to go into how, as humans we tend to only remember the negatives... But I think maybe you're just venting, so I'll spare you.

I agree, you'll never move up in stakes.

Quit.
Nop not trolling or venting just telling the truth.

Something like 98% of all poker hands ever played are won with cards.
Whether you are behind or ahead if you hit the cards you win.

12bb is a reasonable all in call with AK.
The question you should be asking is how did I get to 12bb.
The answer is by getting 16 bad beats.

If you want to talk statistics, if someone deposits $20 and runs it into 5 million there is only one explanation for that, luck.

You are living in denial my friend.

I mean look at all the "pros", living evidence of what I am talking about.
Luck in poker Quote
10-01-2018 , 11:39 PM
Nothing your saying makes any sense.

What pros?

You didn't mention 12bb in your initial post.

16 bad beats and you still have 12bb? Apparently you don't know what "bad beat" means. Stacking off light pre isn't a bad beat. Ever. Even with AA. It's a flip. Sometimes you're at a slight statistical advantage pre, but it's still a gamble. Additionally, losing to KQ with K8 on a K4297r isn't a bad beat either. See the donk comment from earlier.

You only win when you hit? That's laughable, and it shows how little you know. Probably too much TV time. There's a reason they show the hands they do. It isn't meant to be step by step instructions. They're a lot more to it.

Just because Phil Ivey/Tom Dwan/Isuldur1/Jungleman raises pre with K4o OOP doesn't mean you can. What they're not showing you is the 150 hands leading up to that spot. Well, except Dwan.

Look, the only reason I'm entertaining your thread is because I'm a super fan of accountability. Instead of asking why the universe is screwing you... Why not find the leaks in your game and plug them?

"Poker is a game of luck. The more I study, the luckier I get."

GL Bro.
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10-02-2018 , 06:27 PM
Look its standard, i dont know who is trolling and who is not, but stacking off with AK in tournament with 12bbs is pretty obvious a extraterrestrial GOOD PLAY like snowie says.

No one can raise K4o profitablly , maybe as exploit vs overfolding bb on btn, but its also rare. So no one is rasing with those hands, unless making a spazz negative EV play just cause. Bad.

And as for your run, lets see some evidence. Post your Hand Histories, we can disscuss other plays.
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10-06-2018 , 08:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Havick
Nothing your saying makes any sense.

What pros?

You didn't mention 12bb in your initial post.

16 bad beats and you still have 12bb? Apparently you don't know what "bad beat" means. Stacking off light pre isn't a bad beat. Ever. Even with AA. It's a flip. Sometimes you're at a slight statistical advantage pre, but it's still a gamble. Additionally, losing to KQ with K8 on a K4297r isn't a bad beat either. See the donk comment from earlier.

You only win when you hit? That's laughable, and it shows how little you know. Probably too much TV time. There's a reason they show the hands they do. It isn't meant to be step by step instructions. They're a lot more to it.

Just because Phil Ivey/Tom Dwan/Isuldur1/Jungleman raises pre with K4o OOP doesn't mean you can. What they're not showing you is the 150 hands leading up to that spot. Well, except Dwan.

Look, the only reason I'm entertaining your thread is because I'm a super fan of accountability. Instead of asking why the universe is screwing you... Why not find the leaks in your game and plug them?

"Poker is a game of luck. The more I study, the luckier I get."

GL Bro.

It is so much fun talking to you people.
You are completely unaware of how poker or gambling works.

Everything I say makes sense if you think about it for a second.

Yes 98% of hands are won with cards.

Bad beats are disputed because players don't all have the same opinion.
You gotta define it somehow. So I would say it's when you put your money in bad and win like a donk you gave the other player a bad beat.
Of course big draws and small amount to call are fine I guess.

Let me a analyse your statements individually

"too much tv time" - no, its nonsense. I am not like 99% of poker players who get turned on by high stakes poker. It was all fake, almost none of them made that money playing poker it was all company corporate money.

"they are not showing hands leading up to that spot" - they do, the guy won with cards every time.

"Phil Ivey" - lol what about him? What would you like to know. How he turned 5k into 2mil in one evening and became Phil Ivey. Don't get me wrong it's great I am happy for him but let's tell the truth and say it was luck not skill.

"Isuldur1" - what about him? How he won the largest pots when he put his money in behind most of the time. Fair enough big draws but what about the guy who put his money in ahead?

Look at the "pros".
This is what people don't understand.
Most of the pros were loosing players until they got lucky and won a major tournament.
Then quickly run up to a big company to get a multimillion sponsorship.
Then play as mush as possible
Play 3000-4000 tournaments to win 14 of them.

The question is who can afford to play 3000 tournaments?
Answer, someone with big sponsorship

The ones with no sponsorship have either gone broke or playing with borrowed money.

I've got so much more educational material I am happy to educate everyone
Luck in poker Quote
10-07-2018 , 05:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NtngEvaHolds
blablablabla


Look at the "pros".
This is what people don't understand.
Most of the pros were loosing players until they got lucky and won a major tournament.
Then quickly run up to a big company to get a multimillion sponsorship.
Then play as mush as possible
Play 3000-4000 tournaments to win 14 of them.

blablabla
Honestly I don't know what happened to put you on this kind of a tilt train. Do yourself a favor and stop, otherwise you'll look at this thread in a couple of weeks when you calmed down and be ashamed of yourself.


The amount of bullcrap you're posting here is baffling to say the least.

You don't become a "pro" by getting lucky, get a big sponsorship, then play 3000 tourneys and win 14 of them. That's just hilarious. Also, if you look at tournament players, most of them are decent cash game players in the first place.


If I were you, I'd quit. I'm serious. You just cannot handle the variance of the game and it drags your mood down in a way that you're finger pointing at obscure ideas just to avoid taking responsibility for your crappy plays.

Really, no offense, but I think you'll be a happier man if you just gave up on this game.
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11-04-2018 , 06:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foldelinio
Honestly I don't know what happened to put you on this kind of a tilt train. Do yourself a favor and stop, otherwise you'll look at this thread in a couple of weeks when you calmed down and be ashamed of yourself.


The amount of bullcrap you're posting here is baffling to say the least.

You don't become a "pro" by getting lucky, get a big sponsorship, then play 3000 tourneys and win 14 of them. That's just hilarious. Also, if you look at tournament players, most of them are decent cash game players in the first place.


If I were you, I'd quit. I'm serious. You just cannot handle the variance of the game and it drags your mood down in a way that you're finger pointing at obscure ideas just to avoid taking responsibility for your crappy plays.

Really, no offense, but I think you'll be a happier man if you just gave up on this game.



I don't know if you can read dude but I made it clear I am not on tilt.

I am simply telling the truth after analysing 10s of thousands of well played hands based on mathematical calculations currently popular in the poker world.

Also you need to be a little bit smarter and realise that whether I am winning or losing in poker has nothing to do with my posts.

I just read your reply and I am proud of my posts I am not ashamed of them.

You are cheating yourself. Large majority of cash "pros" were losing players before they won a major tournament. Read more.
This has nothing to do with me these are the facts.
They went broke over and over again and kept borrowing money to keep playing to recover. This is just one small example there is a whole list or examples and observations.
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11-10-2018 , 09:50 PM
If you feel it's only about luck, why do you even play? Just play the roulette or blackjack. By the sounds of it you would probably have more chance of turning a profit. If it was just about luck, why is it the strong players consistently do better than the weaker ones? Is there some sort of weird card counting magic trick that the strong players posses, or do they just naturally get better probability of getting better cards? I mean, come on lol


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03-10-2019 , 07:40 AM
All you people are so clueless about this it is actually funny.
But it's ok, it's not against the rules to be like that.
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03-10-2019 , 12:01 PM
If you want less Variance play cash game, Tournaments have a really high variance and a higher luck factor.
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