i refuse to play outside in that weather unless it is before 10a or after 5p. And i wont play after 5p because I am shadeblind and it is impossible for me to see the ball at that time.

So either before 10a or we can play indoor =)

Thinking of edges in just the stack off route is the wrong way imo. Figure out your edge in smaller-mid sized pots as those are the real WR creators (assuming you don't suck at AIpots, ldo)

re grinding and enjoying it: some people have very competitive edges (me and i think a lot of poker) so when i grind i feel...more alive is the emo way to put it that isn't entirely accurate. i know that when i dropped 2k in a session or 1k that i am always like...holy **** that is a **** ton of money. or when i took a shot and 4bet/folded $100, like that is $100 mother****ing dollars. but when you are grinding a lot of tables your mental game is being to pushed to the limit again and again, it can be quite exhilarating.

i will say there is something about hoaching that is fun.

lol I remember when I lost a $1200 pot on UB a couple of years back (obv no br management) and I almost cried for a couple of days haha

I've been a long-time lurker, and seen a few discussions about redlines during this thread. I'm a decent winning 50nl player (Rush + FR) - approx. 2.5PTBB/100 @ 4 Rush / 6-8 tables, so I know that I'm not completely wrong... but my question is that my $WSD is on a constant negative line, while my non-showdown winnings are in a much larger trend upwards. Clearly, I am a winning player - thus my non-showdown FAR overshadows my showdown losses. However, my question is: What does this mean? Generally, what kind of leaks am I having?

First, I don't know if I do indeed have any "leaks" solely because of my divergence from the two lines; it may be "acceptable" as a poker player to have this kind of graph. I am a 23/17 - which I guess lends myself to a LAG at FR tables. I am a decent hand reader, and am able to [obviously] push people off of weak but better holdings than I have a lot of the time, through shear aggression.

I will post my graph when I get home tonight - I hope that someone can help interpret what is going on, and in a general sense, give me advice on how (if there are indeed problems with the graph) to fix myself.

Well, it's not like exploiting the 5-10% edges would make the 70% edges disappear.

Racquetball is the nuts.

if this is over a decent sample I would say that you are probably running some over exposed bluffs and/or are getting involved in ~40bb pots too liberally.

Yes - you are correct. I am getting involved in 40bb pots not terribly much, but enough that I have to shut it down which majorly sucks with 20% committed. I'm really afraid of moving to 100nl for exactly this reason; the 50nl players are not as good at hand reading as the 100nl players. Like you (I've watched your vids), I am constantly taking stabs - constantly putting pressure.

The major thing with me lately is that I've found the Rush tables have tightened up QUITE a bit (50nl). I'm pushing people who I feel have AA, KK, etc. off their hands MUCH easier because everyone is afraid of the PF raise -> 3bet -> call / [all under flop] lead or check/raise -> [under turn] lead and they're folding almost all of their pair hands... (if that makes any sense). I'm gathering a ton of profit from those types of situations; having little to no HUD makes it THAT much easier because I'm "anonymous" even against the regs.

Sorry for the rambling post... will post my chart and stats tonight.

Okay; I was writing the last post at work, so I was a bit wrong on my BB/100 - it is 1.71PTBB/100 since 2010 in 90K hands. The majority of the hands are FR 50NL (both Rush & regular intertwined). I believe Rush accounts for a drop in productivity because you're seeing a great many more hands / hour, but for all intents and purposes, I think the crux of my issue is my divergent red & blue lines. It's actually kind of scary - perhaps I shouldn't be all that concerned...

Since 2010, I run a 25 / 19 (considered LAG, I'd imagine) with a 6% 3bet & 77% ATS (LOL). 2.66AF. My WTDS = 27%, my W$SD=43%. Are these anywhere close to resembling good numbers? I'm figuring that I'm stealing so often that it is accountable for the huge divergence in and of itself... What do you think, split or anyone else?

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_kGD8avHlWw...01+Redline.png

few things im noticing MD:

1.) you have a lot of 4BI snap drops in blue/green. This to me usually implies some sort of tilt, esp when they are happening fairly often. It could be clumped run bad...but they look to be BI pots and coming clumped...

2.) Your W$SD is maaaaaaaasively too low. Like, insanely too low. Your WTSD will be skewed given the fact that you are running LAG and you are probably doing the "open raise/CB/shutdown line"...however, YOU dont seem to be doing that. you seem to be barreling a ton given the redline. In doing this, you are getting to SD a little too much, and then obvi with super weak hands. I might make sure you are picking correct spots to dub...it looks like you are doing it every time rather than in good/select spots.

3.) I would want you to look at your 45bb-100bb pots heavily. See if you have a lot of single pairs showing up at SD in this range. If so, time to do some work.

4.) It should be noted that you are winning, and over a workable sample. However, this style will get you murdered as you move upwards and players adjust, call lighter correctly, and will aggress you back.

5.) Your 3B% is odd given your redline...so I would need to see it all in context (positional breakdown of stats). But, you should consult the stats thread if you want someone to take a free look at it.

Hope that gives you something to work with =)

First, thank you so much for the comments and your time. I am trying to get better such that I can move up to 100nl.

As to your comments, actually, that was a takeaway from your latest vid; barreling. Within the video, you talk about people taking bluffs too far and barreling too much. I'm trying to cut that out, because you're correct - I'm folding the turn too often with a lot already in the pot. However, it's a double edged sword because I'm able to push a lot of the 50nl players off their hands by the sheer aggression I'm showing.

You are correct about the 1 pair showdowns that nearly never win as well. I need to investigate more directly what exactly is going on...

for sure.

I can tell you with 84% certainty that:

1.) your bluffs are too explosive

2.) you're bloating pots too much with SDV hands.

Again, you have found a strat that works in this given game condition. But when you step out of that game condition, you will have massive issues. Thus why you should spend some time exploring it all now =)

can you link me a thread detailing the two? what's the diff. in a nutshell?

That's *EXACTLY* the problem. 50NL *ALLOWS* me to get away with this type of behavior. Keep barreling until told otherwise. This type of behavior is particularly true of Rush, as well, where most of the time, I am anonymous and it is difficult for opponents to track my tendencies. I feel like the times that they actually look me up (dollar-wise) are far less than the times I'm taking it down without a fight.

I'll tell you, I played 100nl before I went to bed last night (2 tabled Rush @ 500 hands). Besides running like an absolute monster (I had AA like 4 times in, KK, sets, etc.), I was definitely able to get away with the same type of behavior. Given, this is HUGELY limited sample size, but still - you believe that over time, in Rush poker, the players are going to pick up on my particular line of barrel barrel barrel / aggro aggro aggro? Perhaps with a more advanced HUD (such as HEM's full-up stats), that type of thing would be obvious, but right now, can V's actually tell AF stats for individual streets, etc.? (Note: I use an older version of PT3; I've been lazy in actually going out & purchasing the latest version of HEM. I know; it's stupid - $100 to fix a potential huge leak is a price well worth it...)

I like to use the dictionary definitions:

The technical definition of variance is the Standard Deviation of your play. A number describing the general "swingy-ness" of your play.

The more informal definition is anything that diverges from what is expected. Thus, since a winning player is expected to make money, if they lose money that's "just variance".

my wr sucks, game is hard :-(

What's the lowest standard deviation/100 you guys have seen?

Perfect example of not getting to showdown with a hand with showdown value:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $109.85
BB: $99.60
UTG: $86.95
Hero (UTG+1): $117.30
UTG+2: $67.95
MP1: $157.20
MP2: $290.55
CO: $52.65
BTN: $332.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with Ks Kd
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, MP2 calls $4, 4 folds

Flop: ($9.50) Kh 9s 6d (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks

Turn: ($9.50) Qd (2 players)
Hero bets $6, MP2 calls $6

River: ($21.50) Jc (2 players)
Hero bets $14, MP2 folds

Final Pot: $21.50
Hero wins $20.45
(Rake: $1.05)

Is there a problem with my river bet? Perhaps leading the flop should have been my line? I'm not sure, but I have a feeling this is why I'm not getting my W$SD up higher... I'm not getting to showdown a lot of the time with these kind of hands...

Well if people aint' letting you barrel them stop doing it. Against some people on NL 100 it works, and some ppl it doesn't work. Just have to adapt to the given situation I guess.

-

Anyway: Solid WR for NL 100 : 17/14

I have just stepped up at NL 100 btw.

Another typical non-showdown hand:

----

or

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $128.95
SB: $124.45
BB: $330.90
UTG: $104.35
UTG+1: $385.70
UTG+2: $100.10
MP1: $175.50
MP2: $72.90
CO: $286.65

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with 7d 7s
UTG raises to $3, 5 folds, Hero calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 5c Jd 8s (2 players)
UTG bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) 9d (2 players)
UTG bets $9, Hero calls $9

River: ($35.50) 6s (2 players)
UTG bets $13.50, Hero raises to $35, UTG folds
Effective nuts.

Final Pot: $62.50
Hero wins $59.50
(Rake: $3.00)

In this hand your problem is not that you're not going to showdown, your problem is that you miss insanse amounts of value by not betting the flop. Not going to SD is not in itself a bad thing you know...

This is also not a typical non - SD hand.
In this hand you simply made a more than debatable float on the flop, made another close float on the turn after turning a ton of equity and then got lucky on the river. Just think about it, what kind of hand do you expect villain to b/c the river with on this board?

Sorry but those examples don't make a lot of sense if you use them to illustrate what split said namely:

"2.) you're bloating pots too much with SDV hands"

This is a lousy example of not getting to showdown with a hand with showdown value.

A much more instructive case is when you steal OTB with T7s, the BB calls and the flop comes down KT4r. BB checks, you bet, and BB raises. You fold.

Alex & MPethy - Thank you for the analysis. I think I'm having trouble defining what "a hand with showdown value" is. I've been playing well since June of last year, so I have about 7-8 months of "real" history. I'm not sure this is a fundamental flaw that I should have picked up on months ago, or whether this is an advanced concept. The above to HHs are bad examples because I really don't know what I'm looking for to go to showdown with... For example, is this a "showdown value" hand?:

[Disclaimer: clearly misplayed]:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $47.05
UTG+1: $201.45
UTG+2: $160.00
MP1: $78.85
Hero (MP2): $158.05
CO: $107.40
BTN: $165.20
SB: $99.40
BB: $105.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with Ac As
3 folds, MP1 calls $1, Hero raises to $4.50, 4 folds, MP1 calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.50) Tc 6d 6h (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $7, MP1 raises to $14, Hero calls $7
Dry flop min raise is weird on a safe paired board, but V is a 3/4 stack monkey. I'm figuring him for any PPs. and AK.

Turn: ($38.50) 7d (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $14, MP1 raises to $28, Hero calls $14
Two c/r's should have been a red flag that I barreled right through.

River: ($94.50) Qh (2 players)
MP1 bets $32.35 all in, Hero calls $32.35
Am I really folding a 1/3 pot bet here at this point?

Final Pot: $159.20
MP1 shows Th Td (a full house, Tens full of Sixes)
Hero mucks Ac As
MP1 wins $156.20
(Rake: $3.00)

I'm not looking for the poor play lecture; I realized immediately - beat myself up pretty good about it... However, is this an example of a hand with showdown value? As in, I check behind the turn and check / call the riv (the way I figure it "should have" been played out?

MD:

A hand with showdown value is any hand that can win at showdown given the action in the hand.

"Showdown value," describes the full range of hands you could win with at showdown, from having the nuts to having a high card hand that has no value except as a bluff catcher to lower high card hands.

Most of poker is about quantifying the amount of showdown value your hand has. Phrased differently, we analyze the strength of our hand as compared to the villain's range to have taken the actions he has taken so far in the hand.

So, for example, suppose you have AJ in MP1. You raise preflop. The button calls, everybody else folds.

The flop comes down QT7.

You bet, the villain calls.

Turn: 2

You bet, villain calls.

River: 2

So now the question is whether your hand has showdown value. What hands are you beating, if any? What hands are you ahead of, if any? Is my hand worth more money at showdown (how much of his range can I beat if we showdown) versus how many of his hands can I beat by betting?

You'd ask yourself the same question if you had AT here.

You'd actually ask yourself the same question with QQ, but the answer would be obvious.

What this discussion highlights is that we usually use the term "showdown value" as a slang reference to hands that are ahead of some of the villain's range and behind some of his range. But we are always trying to figure out whether we are ahead of enough of his range to want to get the hand to showdown, or behind so much of his range that we are so likely to lose at showdown that we should either fold or bluff.

Against an unknown I would call the river bet, expecting to lose most of the time. However after the flop checkraise I'd check the turn behind.