Oooh variance talk!

I've had three -10bi sessions in the last 2 months. Solid winner the whole time.

He may amplify on this, but he did both. He was constantly working on his game. But he knew at the time that he had an EV adjusted positive win rate, and was running as bad as anybody has ever run. so he gave variance it's due regard, but never stopped working to improve his game.

binK. I suppose you could change "he" to "I" and it would have been the same thing I would have written =)

Also, i personally suggest ppl use stoplosses and DO NOT hit -10BI sessions. Kurt has been around to know how he can handle that mentally, but for most, that will be such a mental confidence blocker that you will have to spend a ton of time digging out of that not only in a money sense, but in a mental sense.

what would be a decent WR for 1/2 live playing 6-10 hours per session during peak traffic friday/saturday night.

what is a standard downswing as well.

What is a decent WR for 2/5 live playing 4-5 hours session once a week on sunday.

read through the thread. this has been discussed quite a bit in terms of hourly rates at 1/2 and 2/5

Yeah, I wonder how easy it is to discern running bad from playing bad. Obviously AIEV will tell you some of the answer, but you can still run bad without it being reflected in AIEV. I know it won't take me close to a 18BI DS to make some (potentially bad) adjustments.

I actually did decide to institute a stop/loss for the first time ever after reviewing these three -10bi sessions.

Upon review I found they had the following in common:

* I ran amazingly bad in each session
* each was a very long session, over 10k hands

So in one sense, running $800, $600, or $500 below EV could be a /partial/ excuse for a -$1k day, but in each case I stayed to "grind it out" and lost more. I'm not sure if the stop-loss is right, but since all 3 followed exactly the same pattern, I figure why take the chance... so I'm on a 5bi stop-loss now.

Also, the mental impact of each successive -10bi day was worse. The first charged me up to make it back, I put in 30k hands over the next 4 days and was back in the black before the weekend was over. The second I tightened up my game and started playing shorter sessions. The 3rd I was shell-shocked, and basically took a week away from the tables. Don't particularly feel like doing it again.

I have had several -8bi sessions (2-8k hands) a couple -10bi. They are pretty brutal to your brain. It's very typical to have to look at my lifetime graph to remind myself I don't suck as bad as that. I always recover and business as usual AS SOON AS I CAN GET OVER THAT HORRID DAY. It really helps to get over it ASAP. It's also very typical of me to have to "manufacture" a winning session ASAP after the tragedy to make myself feel better and to help put it behind me. Most of these tactics are not the best ways to handle it but it's the best I can do to cope with the beatings. I have never had a stop loss becasue I have recovered from just as many. When shotting I do have stop loss in place so I don't spaz out my roll.


I will try again:


Solid WR for +16 tabling:

25NL= ?

50NL=?

100NL=?


Why am I posting, I should be grinding.

I will manufacture wins as well if my mental status really gets that bad. There are worse things to do, lol

Solid WR for +16 tabling: (mind you there is a pretty big difference between 16 and 24 tabling...this will be general, and is VEEEEEERY based on tilt control and style. I will just assume a 14/11 and a 12/10 ( 14/11 :: 12/10 ))

25NL= 3.5PT/100 :: 2.8PT/100

50NL= 2.8PT/100 :: 2.3PT/100

100NL= 2PT/100 :: 1.5PT/100

imo of course. and no, i have no interest in discussing with ppl telling me how much they make, or what their friend has made...

When I have a bad session, I'll usually tell myself something like "wow, I can't believe I ONLY list 5BI with how bad I ran" It usually helps me get over it.

Don't know if you've seen them but the video series eightfold path by t.angelo addresses this very thing in the Quitting episode. He recommends not playing any session longer than 1.5 hours because over the time of a session, our game detariotes(sp?) and when we condition ourselves to take breaks, even tho we don't want too, it lops off that part of the session where our win-rate decreases and we can come back with our mental batteries re-charged and back in our A game.

Hey Split what level was your 170K BE stretch at? What would you say your ev adjusted winrate was during that period? Super sick btw - rakeback ftw!

Don't subscribe to any video spots, but T.Angelo is the nuts and anything alluding to Buddhism intrigues me... where can I find these?

DeucesCracked

100NL, so I was still making $10/hr thanks to RB, lol

I wasn't the player I am today, so probably 1.4PT/100 WRadjusted. My longest breakeven in recent times is probably like 30K give or take.

jealous, how many hands/month? er i guess how many hands "in recent times?"

not nearly the volume I would like to tbh. I've been doing other poker related things (writing, vids, and the word that rhymes with poaching)...and haven't had much time to grind between it all. I am really hoping to still get a free month or so soon so I can start power grinding 100K hands months

I honestly believe 10 BI swings should be rare. Or maybe I just play bad? Is there any use exploiting a 5-10% edge at NL50 and below? When you're bound to have other situations when you have a 70% edge?

+1 million

I think thats a good thing. I was really shocked, when I was reading Phil Galfond's well (again) and he said it would take 12 MILLION dollars POST TAX for him to SEMI retire? WTF? And he also said poker doesn't keep him that happy .... So I'd say keep doing those things if it makes you happier than grinding

I'm spending big right now on Tennis coaching, and a **** load of other stuff. And life is goood

if poker grinding makes you realize anything (and it saddens me how many people don't realize it) it's that happiness (or as I consider it "mental preservation") is king. I personally enjoy grinding at times, but at other times, in certain conditions, I want to set fire to everything I come across. I realized this pretty quickly when I turned pro (though I suppose turning "pro" in the midst of your worst breakeven stretch isn't the best of ideas, lol)...and now do things like taking April off every year and take vacations if I need to. I realize I am 100% blessed to have the poker business options which provides me flexibility in my grinding schedule, but I did that for a reason (though I suppose one of those reasons was to put my $160K degree to some sort of use, lol).

Glad to hear your life is solid right now as well. BTW, if you are every in Vegas, I would be happy to trade some lessons with you, as my serve and backhand have gotten sloppy over the last couple years =)

There is something to be said for this approach if you are risk averse and tilt easily if you start losing ... 5% is really a 52-48 type flip situation where if you have the underpair you aren't sure if you are flipping or a 4-1 dog. However 10% situations will cut into your WR if you routinely pass on these. However if you do tilt easily from losing you could be actually gaining from bypassing these situations if the loss off your WR is less than you would lose tilting. If that's the case I would recommend working on your tilt so you can play those 10% advantages and not tilt when a few in a row go against you. Above all it's know thyself, so for some people bypassing 5-10% edges and waiting for the big edge is better for them. They just won't have as good a WR as someone who can be more zen about losing and plays the 10% edges.

Garon

friendly tennis match when I come to Vegas for 2 weeks in June? Would love to play while I'm out there in some scorching heat

I disagree.

First of all evaluating these 5% edges are VERY hard. Say for example, you have 8s9s. Boars is As Js 8x. Now most ppl will raise here with the intention of stacking off. But what about the cases when V has AJ? A8? or a set. Then your perceived +5% edge is actually a -60 to 70% spot.

Not saying that stacking off is the bad play, its only bad if you are stacking off regardless of player type. And there are a bunch of player types at NL50 and below against whom stacking off would be the wrong play.

Ermmm, that was my point .... ? That when you think you have a 5% edge you could be a big dog. I just showed the PF flip example of having what you think is an underpair vs. overcards but he could have an overpair making you a 4-1 dog. You came up with another example where your perceived 5% edge is actually a big dog. So you are really agreeing!

I love stacking off with various pair+draw hands, but I would never stack off in that situation. Maybe it's a leak of mine?

Garon