*** Let's Chat About Win Rates! *** - Page 3 - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

i don't believe any of the comments about people's winrates being lower at 50nl then at 100nl. i'm sorry but that is simply bull****. 50nl is a significantly easier level with respect to the skills of the regs. yeah there are still some awful ones at 100nl too.

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02-26-2010 , 04:05 AM

#52

ach ja

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Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 2,687

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnytt

How much in general is everyones winrate at 25NL compared to there winrate at 50NL? Can i expect my winrate to be cut in 1/2 at 50NL? My guess is my winrate at 25NL is around 3-4big bets/100 cant be sure due to comp issues but sample size is pretty large and 3BB/100 is on the low side I am guessing. This is also mass tabling for the most part as well.

I started out playing cash at 25NL and playing no more than 8 tables and my WR (around 3.5ptbb) is basically the same as 24 tabling 50NL. But that's probably more to do with the fact that I'm just a better cash player now than I was when I first started.

100NL on the other hand is completely rigged. I can't fade a 3 out draw ever...

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02-26-2010 , 05:14 AM

#53

xxdanimalxx

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 3,376

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vanguard

must be sample size. just posting the data I have, not saying 100nl is easier.

25nl is def much easier than 50nl, esp if you are good at table starting

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02-26-2010 , 05:18 AM

#54

kasik047

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 524

Longest BE/downswings? In middle of a horrible run that has me questioning why I still bother playing.

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02-26-2010 , 05:31 AM

#55

*Split*

See my coaching listing

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 9,261

Quote:

Originally Posted by kasik047

Longest BE/downswings? In middle of a horrible run that has me questioning why I still bother playing.

mine is 170K breakeven. I'm pretty sure Kurt wins this though (I think he said his was something like 550K?)

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02-26-2010 , 06:01 AM

#56

YummyYumChicken

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,591

Quote:

Originally Posted by theboot

I don't agree with that. @NL25 metagame is almost non existent. Maybe things have changed now, but NL50 is where the Nmajority of the 4bet bluffing and light 3betting starts, which can really screw your wr if you have bad leaks like calling a lot OOP.

understand that you may see some/more of it, but there really isn't THAT much 4bet bluffing and light 3betting at the fiddy.

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02-26-2010 , 06:26 AM

#57

KurtSF

Lucky Number Seven

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 16,471

Quote:

Originally Posted by ach ja

100NL on the other hand is completely rigged. I can't fade a 3 out draw ever...

Based on my experience at 100 so far, if villain has:

9 outs, he's a lock
3 outs, we're flipping
2 outs, I'm ahead but it takes a while to reach the longrun

Quote:

Originally Posted by kasik047

Longest BE/downswings? In middle of a horrible run that has me questioning why I still bother playing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by *Split*

mine is 170K breakeven. I'm pretty sure Kurt wins this though (I think he said his was something like 550K?)

Yeah, somewhere around there. Maybe closer to 525k right now. BRM FTW.

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02-26-2010 , 10:26 AM

#58

JDawg23

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 52

the live games are mostly $1/$3 where I play and after 100 hours I'm at $43 hour.

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02-26-2010 , 10:53 AM

#59

JH1

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Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnytt

Quote:

Originally Posted by *Split*

imo, you can probably do like 60%-75% of your 25NL WR at 50NL with like no adjustment. and given the nearly doubling in fringe benefits, 50NL should stand to make you a higher hourly

+1

50NL winrate is generally 75% of of 25NL winrate if you are good at exploiting nits to make up for the drop off in light-stackaments.

25NL --> win tons of big pots lighter
50NL --> win tons*3 of small/medium pots

cliffnotes on graph functions:
25NL ---> wait for it.... wait... wait... (ok valuebet your 2nd pair for 3streets)... wait... BAMMMMMM! - aka stackadonk

50NL ---> bam... bam... fold your 33 to 8/6 c/r on J83r... bam bamm bam... win win win...

Spoiler:

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02-26-2010 , 11:06 AM

#60

caddymix024

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 1,900

is it ridiculous to play a 28/24/3.3 with a three bet percentage of 8.9 at full ring? i've been experimenting with this style with great results at 25nl full ring. i just don't think players know how to fight it appropriately at these levels.

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02-26-2010 , 12:11 PM

#61

DDAWD

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Quote:

Originally Posted by caddymix024

That seems to be pretty high, even for a LAG player. But if you can make it work, you can make it work. I'm probably targeting any player I've got with those kinds of numbers in my database, though.

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02-26-2010 , 12:36 PM

#62

Garon

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,261

Quote:

Originally Posted by *Split*

From my limited experience playing, but tons of sweating, at 25NL, I would say the two levels play fairly similarly. 25NL has a lot of aggressive restealing, bluff CR-ing, and increasing 4B%s from what I can tell. While I never would have made the statement I did 1yr ago, but the games (25NL and 50NL) are starting to blur together.

And while regs at 50NL are a pinch better, most are still unimaginative NITs and TAGs...the same at 25NL

Table selection? I don't run into any of that. While there may be a very limited amount, I wouldn't say there is lots of aggressive re-stealing, bluff c/r-ing, or lots of 4betting at 25nl. Then again I'm a table selecting nit since I only play 4-6 tables and have no qualms changing tables frequently if a table falls below my standard, which I raise if there are very good tables to switch to. Maybe it is more on the not great tables?

Garon

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02-26-2010 , 12:37 PM

#63

yz10andy

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,233

Lmao JH1

lyrics + avatar

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02-26-2010 , 01:20 PM

#64

KurtSF

Lucky Number Seven

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 16,471

Quote:

Originally Posted by caddymix024

I was winning at 25nl hovering between 30/25 and 25/23 with 3bet between 2-3% over a good sample. Its possible. Nits are everywhere these days.

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02-26-2010 , 01:43 PM

#65

Y2Dennis

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 1,268

Quote:

Originally Posted by *Split*

Live, imo, should really be used more as a "profitable spend of time that is used for more than an hourly". For instance, I play live once or twice a month (during non-WSOP months) and do so mostly so I can make an hourly but also get some direct utility out of it (I enjoy the socialization coupled with +ev($) time spent). But playing 200NL live for an hourly is just the worst imo. 500NL live is the first level that I would consider playing seriously for a pure hourly, but even still, then you risk $1500 to win $35/hr...that sounds pretty horrible to me.

just my 2 cents

I definitely agree with what you're saying, I'm not looking to scrape together a live bankroll and grind full-time, I would like to go once or twice a week as a way to get out of the house more often (friends/gf still all away at college/grad school) and still remain productive. I'm not sure I'd ever want to grind live poker full-time, I'd have to be beating like $5/10 for a really good clip in order to consider that, and even then I think I'd prefer to do it on the side while working.

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02-26-2010 , 01:55 PM

#66

caddymix024

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 1,900

Quote:

Originally Posted by KurtSF

I was winning at 25nl hovering between 30/25 and 25/23 with 3bet between 2-3% over a good sample. Its possible. Nits are everywhere these days.

was it at full ring? they don't seem to fight back as much as six max. i have been just turning HUD off and playing a more feel based game. i think if you are going to implement this type of style, you have to be comfortable betting across multiple streets and adjusting constantly, but it's so much more fun than the nit it up wait for the nuts version.

today's session (first time playing full ring in few months):

i'm beating 25nl for about 5bb/100 over 70k hands but that's playing nit style (mostly 6max) and i'm gonna try this super agg style for a while and see how that goes.

Last edited by caddymix024; 02-26-2010 at 02:02 PM.

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02-26-2010 , 02:04 PM

#67

KurtSF

Lucky Number Seven

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 16,471

I agree that you have to be comfortable betting across multiple streets and constantly adjusting, but for me anyway a HUD was critical. An FTP update knocked out my HUD for two weeks during my LAG period and I was completely unable to win without it.

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02-26-2010 , 02:05 PM

#68

Spleen

adept

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 1,038

Since this thread is here. What is the standard mass tabling WR >16 tables:

25NL:

50NL:

100NL:

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02-26-2010 , 02:07 PM

#69

DDAWD

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Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 6,879

caddymix, there's an excellent COTW on playing a LAG style

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02-26-2010 , 02:18 PM

#70

caddymix024

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 1,900

DDAWD what's cotw?? link if you can maybe?

Spleen: I twelve table either 6max or full ring 25nl and am winning at about 5bb/100 after 70k hands. I have spewed a lot in those hands though and am working on evolving. Not sure if that's a good winrate but I consider myself decent when I'm not monkey chucking my chips away. I'm also hoping it goes up significantly with this super LAG style.

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02-26-2010 , 02:43 PM

#71

AlexB182

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I love how everyone thinks playing a LAG style will boost their winrates, crush every stake and cure cancer along the way...

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02-26-2010 , 02:46 PM

#72

DDAWD

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Quote:

Originally Posted by caddymix024

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...ntents-397190/

COTW = concept of the week. The LAG one is at the bottom of the first post.

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02-26-2010 , 02:50 PM

#73

DDAWD

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Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexB182

I love how everyone thinks playing a LAG style will boost their winrates, crush every stake and cure cancer along the way...

LAG style is a tool. You use it when the situation calls for it. When you are up against weak nits, then you should be playing LAG since it's the most profitable. But if you're at a table of loose stations, then LAG will get you killed. It's time to put that tool away and stick to the basics.

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02-26-2010 , 02:56 PM

#74

caddymix024

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 1,900

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexB182

I love how everyone thinks playing a LAG style will boost their winrates, crush every stake and cure cancer along the way...

everyone thinks that?

thanks for link DDAWD

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02-26-2010 , 03:06 PM

#75

DDAWD

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Quote:

Originally Posted by caddymix024

everyone thinks that?

thanks for link DDAWD

I think he's being a bit unfair. It's more that a lot of people look at their graphs and see a very ugly looking redline. Then they wonder how they can go about fixing it and playing LAG seems like the obvious answer. I think for most of these people, it's not so much about playing LAG for it's own sake, but how to stop losing money in non-showdown hands.

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