This is a hand at the end of a long session last night and I feel like I was starting to fade. Probably should have quit before this hand and a couple like it.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software
River ($4.77): 4 J 7 3 8
HERO Bets $2.26 (Rem. Stack: $6.29), EP Raises To $4.52 (Rem. Stack: $4.94), HERO Calls $2.26 (Rem. Stack: $4.03)
Spoiler:
EP shows: 6 5
EP wins: $13.05
Villain is a fish (26/9/0) so after C-bet, barrel on the turn I figured villain could still have flush draws, JT, QJ.
Villain probably raises AJ preflop. Doesn't seem to have any considerations for position when opening.
This hand was at the end of a long session and I was feeling the mental fatigue. I feel like I should have slowed down on the river, maybe check called instead of raising. Definitely don't think I played this one right. Thoughts?
I'd probably check/call river, V can have busted flush draws and might value own themselves with JT/QJ. I think I'm okay with the other streets, turn I might size a little larger.
River is pretty thin but if you think the opponent is passive then you are better trying to get that thin value from hands like QJ, JT and 99 which will just check back, that passive opponent isn't going to bet busted draws as much. Note also that there are no flushes and shouldn't be too many 2-pair hands either. You must fold to the min-raise though, you are never good here. Make the preflop raise larger as well vs 3 limpers
I'm not a big fan of going for 3 streets with TPGK OOP at low stakes, I think people call down too often for you to be good, I think 2 streets is more than enough in situations like this, as someone else said, I think the check/call OTR is probably the best play. I've recently been trying to just avoid getting into a lot of situations OOP, I'm not saying I would have folded, just that hands like this are why I've been trying to play less hands in general OOP, especially from the blinds.
The question I tend to ask myself OTR when I have a hand with showdown equity is whether I can comfortably call a raise if I bet, in this situation, the call was a weird one, I don't see what Villain raises with that we beat. He doesn't J hands that we beat, especially given how passive he is.
I tend also to lean towards pre-flop passive play (limp/calling) as being draw type hands or small pockets, small pocket ranges here hit the board pretty heavy, so I would have assumed on the river that he was holding a set or two pair.
I don't mind the check call or bet/fold.
Calling on the river here is pretty thin, did you look at his river aggression and overall agg? (or did you not have enough hands?). I think if you don't have enough hands it's a pretty easy fold as this guy seems pretty loose pre flop and passive post flop. Hard to fold with those odds though.
Optimal line is probably bet/fold for me.
These kind of players don't usually bluff rivers and I don't think they're bluffing missed draws, I think they're also checking behind most rivers with a weaker J here.
I also vote for check/calling the river. The only hands I can see you get value from by betting the river is QJ and JT, which he would most likely check back if you check the river.
He's unlikely to bet a missed flush draw and the 8 river does complete 2 straights that he could definitely have in EP (65 and T9 of spades), especially if he disregards position. So when he raises your bet, you are just never good. He shouldn't have any 2 pair hands except maybe 87ss, so on the river his range consists of AJ (which he's unlikely to bet when checked to as he's so passive), missed draws which he will also not bet, straights, 87ss, and QJ, JT, which he's also not betting.
Vs this range I would always just be check/calling, there aren't many hands you're getting value from, and many of the hands you beat will be checking back anyway.