Well I had been running horrible and now I think I am begining to play bad as well.

This hands happens to me 50 times a day and I am starting to second guess what to do now.

Villain is like 18/15/3 or so over large sample.

What is he flatting a 3 bet here with?

What do i beat TT and JJ?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($10)
UTG ($3.30)
UTG+1 ($10)
MP1 ($6.50)
MP2 ($6.15)
CO ($14.70)
Button ($2.10)
Hero (SB) ($12.60)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, MP1 bets $0.40, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.40, BB calls $1.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.30) 7, 5, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.40, BB calls $2.40

Turn: ($8.10) 9 (2 players)
Hero . . . .

10nl is a joke.

my w/r @ 25nl is 3x my w/r @ 10nl.

so im 3 times sicker now or 10nl is just 3x harder than 25nl

or a combination, but either way - get staked or make a deposit and move up

Lately, flatting with KK or even AA has become fashionable I think.

In these spots i sometimes use a small turn bet. (Like 2$ in this spot).
TT and JJ will call mostly, hands that have you beat reraise or even shove.

You can't make a bet without committing yourself, he's not a ****** apparently, and you only beat 2 realistic hands. Just check fold and then go watch some porn for awhile or go paintballing or something

Would you ever put someone with those stats as set mining here?

10/5 rule indicates he should be 4 banging you or folding a high % of the time. JJ maybe does this, QQ maybe. 18/15 means he is good but he could also have a calling 3 bets leak as well, I sure did. Even if he's weighted to JJ and TT, discount but include the odd suited connector, 66-99 and flatting KK+, and you are definitely behind. Just check and if he shoves, fold, think about betting river if he checks back the turn.

Has anyone else noticed this (10NL > 25NL)? I had a terrible week of 10NL, so took a tilt-shot at 25NL. I was shocked at the play, seemed *so* much softer (people paying off lighter, tables crawling with fish, less shortstacks). Just wondering if others have noticed this as well...

I agree 100%.

Also 25NL seems just "easier" to play, ive been going between both lately and i find i have to do a lot more thinking at 10NL, where at 25NL everything just plays out so simply and easily for me IMO.

And yes i've noticed the new craze of flatting AA, KK pf, but i like it very much as i've stacked at least 3 players the last few days when i've setted up and they just get it in without thinking.

I think i get stuck in that mentality of its a 3 bet pot and I have overpair i cant fold. How bad is this?

It's not a huge leak at all either way imo

Its hard to range like that when you are actually looking at the board, the pot, and your cards, so that you even think about it is 90%+ above the field.

Also, I use shortcuts like never fold OP/TPGK in a 3 bet pot because there are onlyrare exceptions to the general rule that low SPR + ok hand strength = get it in.

And I spew a bit as well so I can't really judge. In the field I stack 100% here and feel bad about my life later

I did notice that too.

the rake is higher at 10nl so you'll have to be beating it at a higher winrate than 25nl, so if you can afford it play 25nl. agree with posters above that there's no skill difference between the two

always check to see if opponents are mass-multitabling, should give you clues as to their range/thoughts in a hand. it may be that there are more multitablers at 10nl

Cool c/f just seemed so weak to me but i have been getting killed by set miners in 3 bet pots lately but guess its just a bad run.

Noticed this too, even though my sample only streches from 2 sessions of "Oh well, lets give it a shot and see how it is, and then move back down again"

So a very small sample, but I did end up +$28 from those 2 sessions

Keep your head up buddy.

Just remember, value-betting and folding marginal spots is the way to beat it.

I think you should bet more of the flop, like 75% pot or more. It makes the turn easier to play.

I don't mind stacking off on the turn, you'll see TT, JJ, and AK even, often enough.

c/f turn. if u get 2 the riv, c/c

It shows you how many people read this forum.

Villain's range here is 88+

Against that range, QQ is 37% to win, and it's safe to assume TT-JJ is always stacking off if you put in the last $6.20

If we discount AA/KK a little (by removing three combinations of each) to make it reflect a 50/50 chance he'd reraise preflop with those hands, we're 44.5% to win

And here's the thing... if we assume he always calls if we shove (I think that's a safe assumption), we're putting in $6.20 to win $14.30 (the pot plus his remaining stack), meaning we're getting 2.3 to 1. We only have to win 32% of the time to be +EV

We don't like it, and we're going to win significantly less than half the time... but shoving is still the correct play here

I don't get how 88 is significantly different than 66 in term of villain's range. Also i'm not positive TT-JJ stacks really I'd put that at 66%, because if he is thinking he knows he has to be behind almost always now even if he could explain calling 1 as "well he has AK and is trying to take it down" This is why I like checking turn, betting river because villain almost never shoves on us with a showdown hand like TT-JJ and is more likely to call a river bet imo.

Doesn't really matter; the math still says we have to stack off now.

TT/JJ pretty much has to stack off. There's only $6 left and the pot is almost $9, plus TT has the OESD, JJ a gutshot. I guess it's not 100%, but it's at least 80% that TT/JJ calls a shove here, so we have to shove. It's marginal and we lose more often than we win, but that's no excuse to talk ourselves into folding when getting it in is +EV

Not if a queen, king or ace hits the river. Maybe not if another club hits the river. Too many scare cards for TT/JJ; it's better to get it in now, and I don't think he can fold an overpair here

You are right. Dead money = shove

level? sorry; I guess my level detector is broken today :P

no i'm admitting im wrong

i know that is rare on 2p2 so your detector is fine.

Thanks I feel a little better about shoving now.

To all those players who are saying to themselves, "I can't seem to beat 10nl and I think 25nl is softer so I'm going to play there."

It isn't.

What you are seeing is that when you move up a level, you are an unknown. People will make a lot of mistakes at first against you (either underestimate or overestimate your hand). Once the regs get a decent sample on you, they will start exploiting your leaks. Keep in mind that the # of users of tracking software is far higher at 25nl than 10nl. I've moved from 5nl to 50nl and have always gone through the pattern of: Win early, think this is easy, get beat, finally figure out the game and then improve.

For every Rider type player that couldn't beat a level, moved up and won, there are literally thousands who try the same thing and fail miserably. Many of them show up in my and others' databases as players we have 40 hands on and never see again after they stacked off.

If you can't win at 10nl despite variance, you aren't ready for 25nl.