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I play live poker full-time. Math nerds, I have a question. I play live poker full-time. Math nerds, I have a question.

10-17-2020 , 02:10 PM
If I make $25/hr playing $1/$2 live at a casino that has 6-7% rake up to $5 with $1 for jackpot and $1/hr comps, what can I expect to make per hour playing $1/$3 with 10% rake up to $5 with $2 for jackpot and $1 comps? I hear Florida games are softer than up North? I plan to move to Florida but don't want to get shafted by the rake if it makes that much difference.
I play live poker full-time. Math nerds, I have a question. Quote
10-19-2020 , 06:00 AM
I am sorry, I don't know the answer to your question. Other than to note the obvious, which is if the rake is higher, then it will have some negative impact on your WR.

I do want to comment on the relative toughness of Florida's games, or lack thereof. If that is the reason for you to move to Florida then I would caution you against it. I have played poker in several different Florida casinos and I can't say that I ever noticed much difference between the players there and the players anywhere else.
You'll find nitty retirees who are there every day.
You'll find recreational players trying to have fun.
You'll find poor pros just scraping by.
You'll find well-funded, good regs.
I certainly would not call the games soft or weak.
I played in a 3-blind structure NL game at the Hard Rock which was 2$/5$/10$ blinds and it was a massive game.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF GOOD PLAYERS IN FLORIDA! No doubt.
I respect the games in Florida. I've won there and I've lost there.
It would be a mistake to underestimate those players. Just treat it like any other game.
I am not aware of any poker Nirvana, where everybody sucks at poker. If there were such a place, it would fill up pretty fast with sharks just like you.

If you are wining 12.5bb per hour where you are, then you are doing just fine. You are doing real good in fact. That's like almost 40bb/100. That's absolutely demolishing your current game, if you can sustain that.

My advice to you would be to build your bankroll and move up to 2/5.

GL, Magnum
I play live poker full-time. Math nerds, I have a question. Quote
10-20-2020 , 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTTsniper
If I make $25/hr playing $1/$2 live at a casino that has 6-7% rake up to $5 with $1 for jackpot and $1/hr comps, what can I expect to make per hour playing $1/$3 with 10% rake up to $5 with $2 for jackpot and $1 comps? I hear Florida games are softer than up North? I plan to move to Florida but don't want to get shafted by the rake if it makes that much difference.
Couple of things.

First and foremost, it's difficult for a "math nerd" to give you an answer when there's essentially a sea of unknowns and a bit of a misconception/wild assumptions on your part.

I'm assuming that you expect that your winrate (or at least the frequency in which you take down pots and their overall value) to be proportional to your nl200 rate? Usually it doesn't work like that. Most people have a small reduction in BB/Hour live when they move up. Not sure if nl300 v nl200 is moving up or not. As for the rake...

There seems to be a split on here about rake. Some zealots claim that the rake can make or break a player. I tend to disagree... Often times the rake isn't anywhere near as big of a deal as people make it out to be. The rake you listed is fairly normal, I'd be more concerned if it were ridiculous, like Commerce nl200 back in the day (not sure if that changed or not). Also worth mentioning that the winner pays the rake, but it would take too long to explain why that matters.

The biggest issue here is the implication that there is a significant difference between nl200 et al. depending on where you're playing. In other words, the phrase "where are the soft nl200 games, dood" has always baffled me. If you find yourself perpetually chasing the softer side of nl200, your winrate is most likely you running hot/cold and not related to your poker prowess. Almost all nl200 or nl300 games are soft. There are players that might be meh-okay, but the pool as a sample should be soft. As the stakes go up, so will the competition--at the very least you'll find more well-funded fish. Well-funded fish can kill a winrate because of short-term variance, and that's a whole other topic.

In reponse to your question, if you manage the same winrate, you should be slightly more profitable than your current game. Whether or not that's worth moving to Florida or not is debatable. It's going to depend on how much time you're going to put in and how accurate you are with your current winrate.
I play live poker full-time. Math nerds, I have a question. Quote

      
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