I'm actually really excited about this post. Can't believe I've only thought about this now. Please see below my stats over 18k hands at 5NL and comment on how you might look to exploit such a player type, what sort of spots you might be looking to do so and which values help you to ascertain such conclusions. I am hoping that this will help me in two ways. Firstly to spot my own leaks but also to learn how I can do the same sort of analysis in game vs my opponents, and thus start to exploit moaar!

vpip 20% pfr 14% 3betPF 4.2% fold to pf3bet 73% 4bet+PF 8.4%
call pf3bet 19% WTSD 31% W$SD 55% WWSF 45%
cbet flop 50% cbet turn 56% cbet river 56%
call flop cbet 40% call turn cbet 58%
fold to fcbet 51% fold to turn cbet 38%
att to steal 35% fold to steal 68% total AF1.4

Please let me know if there are any stats that I have not mentioned that you would use often in game either in conjunction with those above or alone..

Whilst i am profitable at this level I think that i can learn to be a lot more so by learning how to understand stats more efficiently. If you have learnt how to crush this level perhaps you would be willing to make some comparisons of your own stats to mine so I can see where I might need to make some adjustments..

Thanks in advance..

If you apply a filter that only shows hands where there were 7 or more players at the table then what is your VPIP/PFR then?

Only thing that i can see immediately is that your flop c-bet is relatively low. A lot of the 5nl fish and regs are going to be playing fit or fold on the flops so you can make a lot of money from c-betting under suitable conditions (dry texture, not multi-way) even if your hand has low showdown value or equity as a pure bluff.

One thing that you may not know (I only realised it a few months ago) is that Fold to pf3bet% probably isn't what you think it is. That particular stat includes all 3bets that you face even if you weren't the original opener (so say if you were BB and you folded after MP opened and the BU 3bet them). A more meaningful stat is Fold to pf3bet after raise %. Same goes for the 4bet pf+ stat. Those are the key to determining how villain's are likely to react to your 3bets and therefore what strategy you should take when they open.

Answer is vpip 20 pfr 13. The vpip is a little too high would you say?

Thank you for pointing this out. I have noticed that most of the regs have what appear to be extremely high cbet values in comparison to mine. I will take this advise into consideration and try to implement more cbets under favourable circumstances as you have mentioned.

The question that comes to mind then is, knowing that other regs are doing the same as yourself by cbetting often as an exploitative players who fold to often, do you then in turn exploit said regs by floating and raising their cbets more?

This is good to know, thanks. My fold to pf3bet after raising is 43%...That looks very low! I think I call 3bets too often?

---vpip 20% pfr 14% 3betPF 4.2% fold to pf3bet 73% 4bet+PF 8.4%
call pf3bet 19% WTSD 31% W$SD 55% WWSF 45%
cbet flop 50% cbet turn 56% cbet river 56%
call flop cbet 40% call turn cbet 58%
fold to fcbet 51% fold to turn cbet 38%
att to steal 35% fold to steal 68% total AF1.4---

As the pre-flop raiser your range seems pretty solid and tight, but you don't cbet or barrel frequently, and your post flop play is passive in general. I would be comfortable entering hands against you with a fairly wide range, expecting to get good value on sneaky good flops like sets and two pairs, and to draw cheaply to my straights and flushes.
I would 3bet you with a linear value range since you continue against 3bets more than half the time: 99+, ATs+, KJs+, AQo+
And I would cold call: 88-22, A9s-A2s, KTs-K9s, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, AJo, KQo

My plan on the flop is to avoid your cbetting range unless I flop TPGK, a solid draw, or better, and attack your checking range hard with pot bets on the flop, half-pot bets on the turn, and overbets on the river.

If you entered the hand against me I would only cbet flops that are good for my range, and the times I did bet it would be full pot sized bets almost every time.
You are sticky on the turn so I would continue to value bet very heavy, full pot bets almost every time, sometimes an overbet.
If at anytime you did raise me I would snap fold as an exploit, because I would think you are almost incapable of doing that with anything less than a sick combo draw.

You are getting to showdown a lot and winning there a lot, yet I would never pay you off for more than a flop bet when you bet, and you would be having to make a lot of tough decisions post-flop to get value against me with your check/calling range.

Awesome response Manko, much appreciated!! Now to dissect...If I can comprehend how you came to these conclusions then I really will be able to put this criticism to good use!

Which stats enable you to make this assumption? Obviously the cbetting stats, i.e cbet flop 50% cbet turn 56% cbet river 56% but are there any others? Also what sort of template should I be aiming for in terms of cbetting frequencies across the 3 streets?
I feel that my cbetting frequency has lowered since I have started implementing a stronger checking range (as learnt through Upswing material).

Again, which stats have enabled you to construct this strategy? Is this solely because you can see that I cbet infrequently?

The information that allows you to build this strategy is just the PF fold to 3bet after raising stat of 43% Is that correct? What should I aim for here percentage wise ? and why does the fact that i continue too much cause you adjust your 3betting range? Against what sort of opponent would you implement a more polarised range?

As with the 3bet range, surely this is highly dependent on position? And what is it about my stats that cause you to adjust/widen your your cold call range?

When you say you plan to avoid my cbetting range, do you mean that if I cbet you will most likely fold unless....(as above) ?

You say that would look to attack my checking range hard? Do you mean with lots of bluffs? and why do you feel this is profitable against such a player profile? Surely if I am cbetting less then that likely strengthens my checking range, does it not? also could you explain the logic behind potting the flop, half pot on the turn and overbet on the river?

I've definitely got some more questions but hopefully start with these, thanks again.

Your AF is low. I use this as a guide:
0-1.56-passive fish
1.57-2.19- passive
2.2-3.0- solid
3.01-4.71-stone killer
4.72-inf- aggrodonk


I am not a big stat player, so I can't say for sure. I know there is a lot of information available though.


Yes, and because your ranges are strong, yet your AF is only 1.4. If I flopped big against you with a sneaky hand there is a lot of value in your strong ranges to extract.
I would play many hands that flop big draws because I would expect that I could draw cheaply.
Same reasons why I would expand my cold calling range.

Correct, your fold to 3bet stat is low.
Again, I can't say what a good percentage is here, that really depends on your level of play and how often your opponents are 3betting you.
I always thought it was good advice for micro players to over fold vs 3bets as an exploitative strategy because many players are only 3betting with strong value ranges.
Because you do continue often vs 3bets, I adjust my 3betting range by expanding the value portion of my range, and eliminating the bluff portion.
Against an opponent who is prone to fold to 3bets it would be the opposite, you would decrease your value range, and expand the bluffs.


Yes, unless I flop tpgk, a solid draw, or better.

Players with low cbetting frequencies usually check the flop with really soft ranges comprised of weak top pair, middle pair, bottom pair, and give up hands.
Pot the flop when checked to to fold out the air in their range. Half-pot the turn to fold out the bottom and middle pair portion of their range, and to set up the river overbet. The river overbet puts maximum pressure on their range to fold out weak top pair hands.

This was a great idea for a post!
Sorry, I should have taken more time to explain myself better initially, but I am finding it challenging trying to think things through all the way and get it down in writing because I am not used to all of that.

Polarize my cbet ranges, your fold to cbet is pretty high, so I check my decent SDV hands and barrel tf out of bluffs and monsters. Finally you will get sick of it and call off when I have a monster.

These are my stats, let me know what pre-flop and flop strategy you would use against me.


vpip 20.4 pfr 15.8 3bet 6.4 fold to 3bet 52.2 4bet 2.1
call 3bet 36.8 WTSD 27.8 W$SD 54.5 WWSF 39.6
cbet flop 60.3 cbet turn 67 cbet river 54.4
call flop cbet ip 39.1 call flop cbet oop 0
fold to cbet 52.1 fold to turn cbet 44.2
att to steal 41 fold to steal 74.7 total AF 2.4
Cold Call 9.3 Bet When Checked To 40.9 Agg% 32.7

3-bet super light, cbet any 2 on almost any texture, steal wide, overfold to aggression

Mate! this has been extremely helpful! I appreciate the time that you have put into composing these comprehensive responses. I'm taking notes and looking further into some aspects you've mentioned, and now I've got some very clear leaks to work on.

p.s I see you posted your stats below, Just wondering if you might get more responses by creating a new thread? Just a thought. I'll be interested to see what people have to say

When you say that you would decrease your value range vs a player that folds often to 3bets do you mean from the top end? That is, you would 3bet premiums less, in order to keep them in the hand?

Yes, exactly.
Although I do think it is still prudent to prevent a multi way pot, so if you expect action behind you you should definitely raise your premiums.

Depends on position.

In general I’d rfi in a lighter range, have a lighter iso range. Every table I’m at for these reasons I check out 3B pre and af amongst others.

Often I’m sat on a table with almost all being low 3B and not overly aggressive. I’ve been known to target fish in the blinds from UTG with a looser range in these circumstances.

I’d play a lot more pots in position expecting to realise my hands full equity more while thinking I could get you to fold in spots too.

Looking at the initial post I would 3B lighter too. Looks like I’m reading that stat wrong too although I do have fold to 3B after raising on my hud not just fold to 3B.


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Other useful stats I have on my hud is fold to raise after flop cb, cold call 2B pre, call 2B pre, raise with previous limpers (defines iso range, you’d be surprised at the variance between regs here)


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I'm no stat expert so but my assumptions would be you are passive tight.
+1 @rapidish