I ended up folding this on the river, concluding that he either had a better Queen (KQ, QJ, AQ) or a flush. In my experience, the overbet on the river is almost always the nuts (or close to it). Was I right to fold?
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): 147.3 BB
SB: 45.1 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
BB: 130.3 BB (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 13.73, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 52)
UTG: 81.4 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
UTG+1: 56.6 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
CO: 115.8 BB (VPIP: 12.12, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 33)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q
T
fold,
fold,
fold,
fold,
Hero raises to 3 BB,
fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) J
5
Q
BB checks,
Hero bets 3.1 BB, BB calls 3.1 BB
Turn: (12.7 BB, 2 players) Q
BB checks,
Hero bets 6 BB,
BB raises to 25 BB,
Hero calls 19 BB
River: (62.7 BB, 2 players) 3
BB bets 99.2 BB and is all-in,
fold
BB wins 59.6 BB
1 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.