Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Micro-Small Stakes Full Ring Discussion of up to 1/2 online no-limit pot-limit Texas hold'em full ring games, situations and strategies

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-06-2009, 09:37 PM   #1
LuckyStraights
veteran
 
LuckyStraights's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,497
EV calc for semi-bluff - math, procedure check

Could someone please check my procedure and math on this EV calc, I did.

Poker Stars $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - View hand 58967
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $2.62
UTG: $1.71
UTG+1: $1.00
Hero (MP): $6.02
CO: $4.02
BTN: $3.43
SB: $3.69

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP with 9 T
UTG calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.10, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.23) J A Q (2 players)
UTG bets $0.16, Hero raises to $0.40, UTG calls $0.24

Turn: ($1.03) 9 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.10, Hero raises to $1.30, UTG calls $1.11 all in

River: ($3.45) 4 (2 players - 1 is all in)

bet range = KT, KQ, JT, QT, QJ, AT, AJ, AQ, AK, A9, A2s-A8's, A9s, AA, JJ, QQ, KK, 99, TT,
combinations = 16, 12, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 12, 6, 21, 2, 3, 3, 3, 6, 1, 1 = 140
weighted = 2, 4, 2, 2, 3, 3, 1, 1, 1, 4, 15, 2, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.50, 0.25, 0.50 = 42
con range = KT, QJ, AT, AJ, AQ, AK, A9, A9s, AA, JJ, QQ, 99
= 2 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 4 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25 = 16.25

Villain continues 16.25/42 = ~ 39%
Villain folds = 1 – 39% = 61%

FE = fold% * pot size = 61% * $1.03 = $0.63

Equity against con range, # I used Poker Stove, but didn't know how to adjust villains range for
weightings, so I took some hands off and tweaked it a little for a rough estimate.

Eq vs con range = 28.694% * $3.45 (total pot – rake) = $0.99

Board: Js Ad Qs
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.694% 26.28% 02.41% 11449 1050.00 { Ts9h }
Hand 1: 71.306% 68.90% 02.41% 30011 1050.00 { AA, 99, A9s-A6s, KTs, QJs, AQo-
ATo }
LuckyStraights is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2009, 02:29 AM   #2
JimmyJack
grinder
 
JimmyJack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 695
Re: EV calc for semi-bluff - math, procedure check

Unless he is a donk, you assigned him a very wide range for a UTG limper, reads or stats would help to assign range.

Assuming the range you put him on is correct and that he folds 61% of the time, the math formula goes like this :

EV = Fold Equity + Pot Equity
or
EV = %he folds * (size of pot before you raise) + % calls * (EV if he calls)

Your FE is :

FE = 61% * 1.13 = 0,69$

Your Pot Equity is way off. I used pokerstove with the same range you put him on and I get :

Board: Ad Js Qs 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.112% 12.58% 03.53% 155 43.50 { Ts9h }
Hand 1: 83.888% 80.36% 03.53% 990 43.50 { AA, 99, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, KTs, QTs, AQo, ATo }

So you are a 16% favourite (you forgot to put the turn card)

PE = 39% * [ 16%* 2.24$ + 84%*(-1.21$)] = 39% (-.66$) = -0,26$

So your total EV is

EV = 0,69 - 0,26 = 0,43$

You're EV is positive because he is folding a big percentage of the time (assuming that range).

When you make your calculations for FE, you have to calculate the money you win (WHITHOUT what it cost you to win it) multiply by the % you win it.

For PE, you multiply the % you loose by the amount you are risking (your 1,21$ bet) and you add the % you win multiplied by the amount you will win WITHOUT YOUR 1,21$ bet ( 1,03$ pot + HIS 1,21$ call = 2,24). Never count the risk you take as a gain. You gain what is in the pot before your bet and you loose what you risk (your bet).

I hope it was clear, if not just ask.
JimmyJack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2009, 06:49 AM   #3
LuckyStraights
veteran
 
LuckyStraights's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,497
Re: EV calc for semi-bluff - math, procedure check

Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyJack View Post
Unless he is a donk, you assigned him a very wide range for a UTG limper, reads or stats would help to assign range.

Assuming the range you put him on is correct and that he folds 61% of the time, the math formula goes like this :

EV = Fold Equity + Pot Equity
or
EV = %he folds * (size of pot before you raise) + % calls * (EV if he calls)

Your FE is :

FE = 61% * 1.13 = 0,69$

Your Pot Equity is way off. I used pokerstove with the same range you put him on and I get :

Board: Ad Js Qs 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.112% 12.58% 03.53% 155 43.50 { Ts9h }
Hand 1: 83.888% 80.36% 03.53% 990 43.50 { AA, 99, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, KTs, QTs, AQo, ATo }

So you are a 16% favourite (you forgot to put the turn card)

PE = 39% * [ 16%* 2.24$ + 84%*(-1.21$)] = 39% (-.66$) = -0,26$

So your total EV is

EV = 0,69 - 0,26 = 0,43$

You're EV is positive because he is folding a big percentage of the time (assuming that range).

When you make your calculations for FE, you have to calculate the money you win (WHITHOUT what it cost you to win it) multiply by the % you win it.

For PE, you multiply the % you loose by the amount you are risking (your 1,21$ bet) and you add the % you win multiplied by the amount you will win WITHOUT YOUR 1,21$ bet ( 1,03$ pot + HIS 1,21$ call = 2,24). Never count the risk you take as a gain. You gain what is in the pot before your bet and you loose what you risk (your bet).

I hope it was clear, if not just ask.
Thanks, what would be a better method to calculate pot equity against villains continuation range, I don't think my adjusted input in stove is too terrible, but there must be a better way then that?

I'm a little confused on the pot equity section:

What is the purpose of this section, Is this deducting my raise size, which doesn't count towards my EV, because I have to commit that to the pot?

84%*(-1.21$)

So my Pot Equity = (my equity * total pot) + (villains equity * my bet)
which works to = -66c

I think his range pre was pretty wide, but I discounted a lot because villain would seldom take this line with TTP or the nut straight on this board, I also expected villain to fold a ton given my line (he ended up calling with A3o), but I'm mostly just practicing the math for future hands.

Thank you.
LuckyStraights is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2009, 02:09 PM   #4
JimmyJack
grinder
 
JimmyJack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 695
Re: EV calc for semi-bluff - math, procedure check

Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyStraights View Post

So my Pot Equity = (my equity * total pot- your bet) + (villains equity * my bet)
which works to = -66c
You do not put what you risk in your potential gain. You put HIS call in your calculations because you win HIS money but you can't win your money. It was impossible to get a negative EV the way you were calculating it. That would be nice in real life though, but in poker you can make bad play and lose money.

Here is a simple example to show you why you do not put your risk in your potential gain:

We bet 1$ on a coin flip. If I win, I win your 1$ and if you win, you win my 1$. We know that (whitout any calculations) the EV of this play is 0. Which means that in the long term no one as an edge on the other and we are just exchanging money. So ,

EV = (%win * potential gain) + (%loss * potential loss)

EV = (50% * 1$) + (50% * (-1$)) = 0

Your potential loss is the 1$ you are betting

Your potential gain is my 1$ (you do not gain the 1$ you bet!!)

Putting your 1$ bet in your potential gain would give you an EV of 0,50$. Problem is that I would also have an EV of 0,50$. So, on average we would each make a 0,50$ per flip, thats 1$ who appeared magically! Guess from where it comes

Quote:
what would be a better method to calculate pot equity against villains continuation range, I don't think my adjusted input in stove is too terrible, but there must be a better way then that?
At first I found the range you assigned him pretty large for UTG, because most people are folding QJ and KT and many others from that position... but if he really called you all the way only with A3o... well, those hands are definatly in his range (and you could even put him on a wider range). To assign a continuation range is very player dependant. Some would call with bottom pair because they are scared of being bluff and others will fold TP because they are scared of the straight. The more you know yur opponent the more your approximations will be good.
JimmyJack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2009, 11:41 AM   #5
TKD_Stops_Tilt
journeyman
 
TKD_Stops_Tilt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: San Antonio, TX
Posts: 205
Re: EV calc for semi-bluff - math, procedure check

I tried to go through this process and follow the calculations OP made and had some trouble. Is there a sticky or pooh-bah post from someone that can break each step down in a more tutorial fashion?

Specifically, I am having trouble with how OP came up with the combinations and weightings. For instance, I would think that since OP is holding a T, then number of possible KT combinations is 12 and not 16? I don't know how to do weighted ranges, so I can only guess at how those numbers were calculated.

Just being a noob. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks!

Last edited by TKD_Stops_Tilt; 03-08-2009 at 11:48 AM. Reason: Provided more detail
TKD_Stops_Tilt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-10-2009, 01:14 PM   #6
LuckyStraights
veteran
 
LuckyStraights's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,497
Re: EV calc for semi-bluff - math, procedure check

Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyJack View Post

At first I found the range you assigned him pretty large for UTG, because most people are folding QJ and KT and many others from that position... but if he really called you all the way only with A3o... well, those hands are definatly in his range (and you could even put him on a wider range). To assign a continuation range is very player dependant. Some would call with bottom pair because they are scared of being bluff and others will fold TP because they are scared of the straight. The more you know yur opponent the more your approximations will be good.
Thanks for all the help.

I think my con range for this villain was reasonable, but after I adjusted the combinations to reflect villains likely lines with those holdings, how do I use Poker Stove to compute my pot equity, because villains con range as now been adjusted by my weightings so much?

Above I just took out a bunch of hands, which I felt would make the stove calculation more accurate, but I was wondering what would be a more accurate method.
LuckyStraights is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-10-2009, 01:20 PM   #7
LuckyStraights
veteran
 
LuckyStraights's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,497
Re: EV calc for semi-bluff - math, procedure check

Quote:
Originally Posted by TKD_Stops_Tilt View Post
I tried to go through this process and follow the calculations OP made and had some trouble. Is there a sticky or pooh-bah post from someone that can break each step down in a more tutorial fashion?

Specifically, I am having trouble with how OP came up with the combinations and weightings. For instance, I would think that since OP is holding a T, then number of possible KT combinations is 12 and not 16? I don't know how to do weighted ranges, so I can only guess at how those numbers were calculated.

Just being a noob. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks!
PM Sent.

I'm really new to this as well, and clearly made some mistakes above, hopefully going through them will make my calcs more realistic in the future.

The steps I took where:

1. estimate villains range at the point where he bet the turn.
2. estimate villains range he would call with when I put him all in.
3. calculate the combinations of each hand within villains con range.
4. adjust villains con range, by reducing the combinations for some of those hands which seldom, or hardly ever take this actual line, such as KT which would likely re-raise the flop or bet bigger on the turn.

I then calculated the % of the time villains fold based on this estimated information, and calculated my FE.

I then imput my hand against a very rough adjustment of villaisn con range in poker stove to find out my pot equity, and this was then added to my FE.
LuckyStraights is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-10-2009, 01:59 PM   #8
TKD_Stops_Tilt
journeyman
 
TKD_Stops_Tilt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: San Antonio, TX
Posts: 205
Re: EV calc for semi-bluff - math, procedure check

Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyStraights View Post
PM Sent.

I'm really new to this as well, and clearly made some mistakes above, hopefully going through them will make my calcs more realistic in the future.

The steps I took where:

1. estimate villains range at the point where he bet the turn.
2. estimate villains range he would call with when I put him all in.
3. calculate the combinations of each hand within villains con range.
4. adjust villains con range, by reducing the combinations for some of those hands which seldom, or hardly ever take this actual line, such as KT which would likely re-raise the flop or bet bigger on the turn.

I then calculated the % of the time villains fold based on this estimated information, and calculated my FE.

I then imput my hand against a very rough adjustment of villaisn con range in poker stove to find out my pot equity, and this was then added to my FE.
Sent you a PM. Thanks again. I will try to step through all of these calculations by the end of the week and post if I have more questions.
TKD_Stops_Tilt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-10-2009, 05:28 PM   #9
KurtSF
Lucky Number Seven
 
KurtSF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: 0EV against everyone ... seriously
Posts: 16,471
Re: EV calc for semi-bluff - math, procedure check

Also:

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...fpart=all&vc=1
KurtSF is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-10-2009, 06:50 PM   #10
LuckyStraights
veteran
 
LuckyStraights's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,497
Re: EV calc for semi-bluff - math, procedure check

Quote:
Originally Posted by KurtSF View Post
Thanks for the link.
LuckyStraights is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2015, 11:05 AM   #11
lummy8
centurion
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: SmallBlind
Posts: 142
Re: EV calc for semi-bluff - math, procedure check

Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyStraights View Post
View hand 58967
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com


bet range = KT, KQ, JT, QT, QJ, AT, AJ, AQ, AK, A9, A2s-A8's, A9s, AA, JJ, QQ, KK, 99, TT,
combinations = 16, 12, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 12, 6, 21, 2, 3, 3, 3, 6, 1, 1 = 140
weighted = 2, 4, 2, 2, 3, 3, 1, 1, 1, 4, 15, 2, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.50, 0.25, 0.50 = 42
con range = KT, QJ, AT, AJ, AQ, AK, A9, A9s, AA, JJ, QQ, 99
= 2 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 4 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25 = 16.25

Villain continues 16.25/42 = ~ 39%
Villain folds = 1 39% = 61%
Goodday all,

I beg your pardon if my questions is out of topic.

May i know how is the above villain continue/fold range populated? Is it based on your manual estimation/assumption or it is automatically done by some software?

Thank you
lummy8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-07-2015, 02:42 PM   #12
Husker
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Husker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Holsten's Diner
Posts: 11,709
Re: EV calc for semi-bluff - math, procedure check

Manually
Husker is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:12 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online