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Was this a decent shove? Was this a decent shove?

05-10-2021 , 01:03 PM
Here is the biggest pot I've played so far!

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 136.4 BB
CO: 155 BB
Hero (BTN): 120 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 105.6 BB
UTG: 115 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 6s As
UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop : (7.4 BB, 2 players) 9h 8d Ts
UTG checks, Hero bets 4.8 BB, UTG calls 4.8 BB

Turn : (17 BB, 2 players) 9s
UTG checks, Hero bets 11.2 BB, UTG raises to 50 BB, Hero raises to 112.2 BB and is all-in.......

I figured I had so many outs: 7s, As and spades. He was giving me 33 percent equity and with 15 outs (I think!) and so around 30% equity, I thought I might shove and try and pick up the fold equity from middling pairs top pairs and perhaps even 2 pairs and sets given how wet the board is for a possible straight and flush draw.

Thank you for the help everyone it's been so much fun putting hands on here!
Was this a decent shove? Quote
05-10-2021 , 05:45 PM
The question for me would be: Do we really have 15 clean outs?

For an UTG raise I would discount a bit of the As as outs (I would assume AA, AT and maybe even A9s are in his opening range. On the other hand I would not expect a turn reraise from A9 or AT).
I would also discount some 7s as outs as it's possible that UTG has a J in his hand (AJ, KJ or JJ or that he even already has the straight with QJs..but again I would not expect a reraise with AJ ...or KJ unless it was specifically KsJs)
If villain is holding 88, 99 or TT - which would also be in a 6-handed UTG raising range - then you don't have all spades as outs. So all-in-all I would give myself a few less outs in this situation.

Against a full 6-handed UTG opening range like this
https://www.pokerstrategy.com/strate...e-flop-ranges/
We would be looking at 24% equity. (if I didn't misclick in Equilab).

However given the turn action I would narrow this range down significantly
Again: Villain reraises turn into someone who has bet twice into him (so unlikely to contain much in the way of bluffs)
So his range might be something like 88+, QJ and KsJs?
Against that As6s has 7% equity.
Was this a decent shove? Quote
05-11-2021 , 03:28 PM
Nah middle pair usually hits villains flopcalling range quite hard + everything villain raises with has at least a straightdraw so has to call the allin.

So best case villain has Ace high or KJ that floats the flop and tries to make a move now. But thats the only hand we beat so dont think thats enough.

Think better check turn and hope villain shows up wit KJ
Was this a decent shove? Quote

      
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