Quote:
Originally Posted by zocketpocket
I run way above ev for the last 3 years. Any idea why? it can't be luck, its 600k+ hands.
No matter how big the sample size (e.g. 1 million hands), the distribution of actual results compared to expected results is the bell shaped curve above (binomial distribution).
Assuming a positive win rate, your EV grows linearly (i.e. in direct proportion to the number of hands in the sample) while the standard deviation grows in proportion to the square root of the number of hands.
The practical effect of this is that with a sufficiently large sample, your win rate dominates variance (standard deviation) but the distribution of actual results compared to EV is still a bell shaped curve and some folks at the end of any large sample will be far above EV and others will be far below it.
I'm lobbying PT3 to add an AIEV standard deviation statistic so folks can see how lucky (or luckly) they look at their EV graph.
There is a misconception that "luck evens out in the long run". This is false. As pointed out above, it doesn't even out (for most people) but win rate does eventually have a much bigger effect than luck. If we have a kick ass true winrate (e.g. 4ptbb/100) then it sucks to run 2 standard deviations below EV but we are crying all the way to the bank after 1 million hands.