So my postflop logic/analysis is as follows, it may be flawed, please comment:

I think Villain could feasibly hold the following hand combos that beat me:
87s(2) , 77(1) , 33(3) , 76s(2) , JJ(3) , AJss, AJdd (2) , KJs (2) , QJs (2)

I think he could also have, that I beat:
88(6) , 99(6) , TT(6)

That makes 17 combos that beat me to 18 combos that I beat. My odds on the river require me to be right just 30% of the time, so theoretically I should call? Is that correct? However, one also has to think is Villain good enough to bet the smaller pocket pairs here on the river in order to get me off an ace? And if that was his objective would he not bet bigger?


PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 100.4 BB (VPIP: 16.42, PFR: 11.44, 3Bet Preflop: 4.11, Hands: 203)
BB: 62.4 BB (VPIP: 30.61, PFR: 18.37, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 49)
UTG: 110.4 BB (VPIP: 31.71, PFR: 9.76, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 41)
Hero (UTG+1): 100 BB
MP: 56.4 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.89, 3Bet Preflop: 13.04, Hands: 72)
MP+1: 118.6 BB (VPIP: 15.22, PFR: 10.87, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
CO: 108.2 BB (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
BTN: 183.8 BB (VPIP: 16.61, PFR: 12.96, 3Bet Preflop: 3.54, Hands: 305)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.4 BB, 3 players) 7 7 3
BB checks, Hero bets 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold

Turn: (15.4 BB, 2 players) J
Hero bets 9.2 BB, BTN calls 9.2 BB

River: (33.8 BB, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BTN bets 25 BB, fold,

Welcome back!

Under certain circumstances your hand might act as a decent bluff catcher. I don't think this is one of them. You block the busted flush draws, on an otherwise dry board and your turn bet probably folds out hands that have weaker showdown value. Lastly I suspect that the population at 5nl is significantly underbluffing in this spot.

Thanks Brussels

Forgive me for digging up an old thread. I love this hand - there are so many complexities and I've been thinking about it all day.

The way I look at it - thinking out loud and quite possibly talking nonsense:

1. OP is raising from early position
2. Opponent calls on the button. Stats indicate he's shaping up to be a fairly nitty reg.
3. OP does not provide any info on his own image, but if V turns out to be a decent player as his stats suggest, that will be important
4. Tight player calls an EP raise = strong range, particularly if OP has tight image. Plenty of pairs (QQ-55, maybe?), decent suited Broadways, maybe AQo, some suited connectors, possibly some sort of A5s type hand as well, and quite possibly AK as well. But whatever, fairly snug.
5. V may perceive OP's range from EP to be AA-77, AK, AQ, AJs, KQs, QJs, JTs, maybe a smattering of weaker SCs/Axs as well.
6. Notice that OP's range may contain slightly more A-high hands than V.

OK. Flop 773 rainbow. I think a check here is prudent. V is pair-heavy. OP is hoping for an Ace, a Queen or a heart. So a lot of cards which don't improve equity and not many good cards to bluff on either. A bet isn't folding out any better hands. V may well check back some of his pairs, and there is a bit of showdown value. I'm not sure what the small bet accomplishes.

Turn is Jh, giving OP a backdoor nut flush draw, which is nice. I probably wouldn't have bet the turn, but with the FD obviously barreling is pretty standard here.

River is another Jack. No flushes are in play and the board is JJ77x.

I feel that V's range is stronger than OP's here because I'm not convinced that Hero bets flop and turn with hands like 88-TT, whereas V does call with them (On the other hand, V doesn't have AA/KK and Hero does). I come back to my point 6 above: OP has more A-high hands than V, and if V is a decent player he will know this. JJ77A is s tempting hand to bluffcatch with. If V thinks OP has an Ace, will he try and bluff him off it? Again ranges/image/lots of game theory type questions swirling around my head here.

I think NEITHER player has many Jacks in their range. JJ a possibility for the absolute nuts. Either player could have AdJd I suppose. Possibly KJ or QJ or JT of diamonds as well but chances are receding.

Both players can have 77, 87, 76.

I think checking is correct on the river. But here there are so many more questions. Could V be betting for thin value with 88-TT? Should he be? Could be have turned a smaller pair into a bluff (surely they would fold the turn?) Could he be turning Ax into a bluff or trying to get OP off a chop? Again, should he?

I am pretty sure check-folding is correct here as played, but I think the hand is interesting from the button's point of view as well - maybe more so.

Be interested to get some other perspectives on it.

Sorry, am I missing something? Don't you also lose to 88/99/TT?