So my postflop logic/analysis is as follows, it may be flawed, please comment:
I think Villain could feasibly hold the following hand combos that beat me:
87s(2) , 77(1) , 33(3) , 76s(2) , JJ(3) , AJss, AJdd (2) , KJs (2) , QJs (2)
I think he could also have, that I beat:
88(6) , 99(6) , TT(6)
That makes 17 combos that beat me to 18 combos that I beat. My odds on the river require me to be right just 30% of the time, so theoretically I should call? Is that correct? However, one also has to think is Villain good enough to bet the smaller pocket pairs here on the river in order to get me off an ace? And if that was his objective would he not bet bigger?
PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
SB: 100.4 BB (VPIP: 16.42, PFR: 11.44, 3Bet Preflop: 4.11, Hands: 203)
BB: 62.4 BB (VPIP: 30.61, PFR: 18.37, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 49)
UTG: 110.4 BB (VPIP: 31.71, PFR: 9.76, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 41)
Hero (UTG+1): 100 BB
MP: 56.4 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.89, 3Bet Preflop: 13.04, Hands: 72)
MP+1: 118.6 BB (VPIP: 15.22, PFR: 10.87, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
CO: 108.2 BB (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
BTN: 183.8 BB (VPIP: 16.61, PFR: 12.96, 3Bet Preflop: 3.54, Hands: 305)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A
Q
fold,
Hero raises to 3 BB,
fold,
fold,
fold, BTN calls 3 BB,
fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (9.4 BB, 3 players) 7
7
3
BB checks,
Hero bets 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB,
fold
Turn: (15.4 BB, 2 players) J
Hero bets 9.2 BB, BTN calls 9.2 BB
River: (33.8 BB, 2 players) J
Hero checks,
BTN bets 25 BB,
fold,