Correct call on this run out? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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Correct call on this run out?

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09-13-2020 , 11:36 AM

MyBeardisEvil

newbie

Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 37

Pacific Poker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 144 BB
MP+1: 100 BB
MP+2: 41 BB
CO: 114.5 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 70 BB
BB: 40 BB
Hero (UTG): 226 BB
UTG+1: 100.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, MP calls 3 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) K

Hero bets 5 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 5 BB

Turn: (20.5 BB, 2 players) 6

Hero bets 10 BB, MP+2 calls 10 BB

River: (40.5 BB, 2 players) 2

Hero checks, MP+2 bets 23 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 23 BB

MP+2 shows J

(Flush, King High)
(Pre 40%, Flop 46%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows K

(One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 60%, Flop 54%, Turn 0%)
MP+2 wins 81.5 BB

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09-14-2020 , 01:22 AM

pokerchrisuk

newbie

Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 33

At these stakes these types of players are usually nutted when they push strong in the late streets, with villians stack being a big clue of a recreational player I'd say its an automatic fold on the river so bad call I'm afraid.

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09-23-2020 , 03:13 PM

insomnia666

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2020 Posts: 225

3 combos JTs and let's say 6 combos AhT, AhJ (maybe). I think you are dead here. Yeah, again "maybe" he call with FD OTF, with flush OTT, just "maybe". But there are some other hands as well. Two pairs and set.
I guess if you decide to bet OTT, you must call OTR. But no sense for bet OTT, that's the problem. I think his range is not so weak in this situation. And your bet OTT is very borderline, very "thin". Minus the rake...And if you add some rare bluffs and some folds , with second pair for example, then this bet will be wrong.

Last edited by insomnia666; 09-23-2020 at 03:24 PM.

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09-25-2020 , 06:30 AM

Yeodan

Micro NLHE Coach

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 3,621

Think of it this way.

Is villain ever value betting something worse?
Extremely unlikely.

So we can just calculate our pot odds: 23bb / (40.5bb + 23bb + 23bb) = 26%
Villain needs to be bluffing 26% of the time here for you to make this call.

Do you think villain is bluffing here more than 26% of the time?
The answer is again very unlikely.

Making this an easy fold.

I probably wouldn't bet the turn either.
What's your goal when betting the turn?

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