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continue on the turn here? continue on the turn here?

02-20-2018 , 08:15 PM
Just wondering if we should continue betting on the turn here? Obviously we are no longer betting for value here anymore if we do so, but the strongest hand Villain should have here is A9, and he can have a lot of other hands that mightn't want to call another 75% pot bet on the turn. Checking the Ace on turn seems weak..

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 43.8 BB
MP+2: 233 BB
CO: 105 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 81.6 BB
UTG+1: 70.6 BB
Hero (MP): 119.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q K

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, MP+1 calls 3 BB, MP+2 calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (10.4 BB, 3 players) Q 8 9
Hero bets 7.6 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 7.6 BB

Turn: (25.6 BB, 2 players) A
Hero checks, MP+2 checks

River: (25.6 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 10 BB, fold,
continue on the turn here? Quote
02-21-2018 , 02:58 AM
Bet the turn -- for value -- it's a great scare card on a draw-heavy board, and makes the hand a bunch easier to play.
continue on the turn here? Quote
02-21-2018 , 09:15 AM
I think betting the turn actually turns your hand into a bad bluff - what better hand is folding? The only merit is that you will probably get value from flush draws but they make up a lot less of villain's range then 1 pair hands.

I like the check and I'd call the river. I'd expect you to be beat but facing such a paltry bet you only need to win something like 20% of the time to make the call +EV
continue on the turn here? Quote
02-22-2018 , 01:10 AM
Brussels, After running the combos, you are correct, the turn is definitely not for value. The R is probably a chk-fold though. My combos follow:

V pF C or R Range: 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo
Admittedly, we would probably see fewer off-suits and more suited connectors, since the V is Cing two opp.
= 164 combos (removing our KQ) & 12.4% of total
remove 26 combos that would R
= 138 combos & 10.4%

After F: My estimate is 128 combos call, of which 50.5 (KQ ties count as .5) beat us. Clearly a value B here since we beat 60% of V's range.

After T: 94 hands Cing or Ring & 70.5 (75%) of those beat us.

R moves V up to 77 of the 94 hands seeing the T to winners for the V. V's range beats us 82%. We need a little better than 3.5:1 to chk-call here...
continue on the turn here? Quote

      
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