10 NL 8-handed

Hero ($10.55): QT BB
CO ($46.33): Seems LAGgy but I don't really have great reads on him

Preflop
CO opens to $0.35, Hero raises to $1.10, CO calls

My thinking: QTs didn't really feel strong enough to call with heads up OOP, but Villain seems to open somewhat wide, so I thought it was a good spot to go for a raise and look to bluff.

Flop ($2.13)
Q52
Hero bets $1.68

My thinking: I'm probably ahead, let's make him pay to continue. I could see some calls with pocket pairs and overcards. Maybe this is too thin though. Maybe I should be looking to induce.

CO raises to $3.36, Hero calls

My thinking: Super small raise, I've got top pair, and Villain is capable of bluffing. In retrospect, maybe the small size indicates value, but I don't know that and the pot odds seem too good.

Turn ($8.48)
(Q52) - 6
Hero checks, Villain checks behind

River ($8.48)
(Q526) - K
Hero checks, Villain pushes all in (I've got $6.09, he's got $41.87), Hero folds

My thinking: Mostly confused in real time. Looking back, bluffing seems pretty odd after checking the turn, because checking the turn looks weak and should kill most of his fold equity.

But a value bet also seems weird, because why check back the turn? Well, maybe to give himself more of a chance on a river shove. I've got to pay more attention to stack sizes.

But with what nut hands, on this super dry board? Sets? I've got a blocker to queens, and queens should bet the turn. There aren't really any two pair hands that make sense. Why would 65s minraise the flop?

I would just call pre then... . Check call the flop. I would not call multiple bets oop.

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I think that versus a loose aggressive opponent Queen 10 suited is strong enough to call even out of position. The hand has decent strength and good playability. I think you can three bet Queen Jack suited here as part of a linear 3 Bet strategy versus a loose aggressive player.

If you think that villain is excessively aggressive than yeah I like a flop check to induce since hero likely has a substantial equity lead.

After villain Min raises the Flop and checks the turn I'm thinking he has a pair of Queens and the way he shoves it on the river probably king queen.

I would be folding this River we are behind too much of Heroes value range and I wouldn't expect many Bluffs here in a 3bet pot with that kind of action on the flop

Grunch

I think you played it okay. My guess is V has AK and was trying to steal on the flop then got lucky on the river.

Pre flop

For a light 3B to work we need a decent amount of fold equity, do we have this that often vs a lag.

I like the hand selection. For the price we can’t call, if it had been 2.5-3bb and co is as wide as expected it works fine as a call. But here it’s just below our calling range, has blocker potential, good versatility and decent pair potential vs a continuing range. Some dominance issues obviously though.

This would mean on good flops/run outs unless we’re nutty we should be cautious. On a lot of top pair type flops let the lag do what he does best and bet. If the flops are wet we might be able to charge some draws.

I’d maybe raise a lick more oop.

This flop is a good one to check behind. The spr is 5+ so playing for stacks isn’t a great idea. Keep V wide and the pot smaller this street. On improved turns we can get more.

After we bet and get raised it’s a tough one. The flops pretty dry so we only really beat bluffs. Calling is creating a big pot with two streets of action left oop. I don’t think protection is much of a factor here so if V is capable of bluffing enough then calling and letting them continue to bluff seems ok. Two overs has a small equity share right now. We can’t raise and be called by worse too often. The min raise means our price is great. I can go either way. An exploit fold isn’t terrible since min raises are often strong.

The turn check behind is odd but the pots so big that it can make sense.

The river
The K is obviously bad. Kills a value bet, gives V a reason to bluff.

2.3-1 ish? 30% or so?

I don’t think V ever value bets worse, but does get here with air sometimes if they’re laggy. The K hits they’re range though. We have a weakened bluff catcher.

I think it’s a fold. It’s harder vs an aggressive player.




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Good analysis Gabe