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Concept: What your minimum bet should be depending on your opponents draw Concept: What your minimum bet should be depending on your opponents draw

04-06-2019 , 08:37 AM
We do not know our opponents hand most of the time, so these are just guidelines.

The idea is to figure out how much we should bet at minimum on the flop and turn, to deny our opponent proper odds to call depending on their draw.

We're assuming we are betting again if the draw does not come in.
So opponents are never getting a free river card in our assumptions.

We're also assuming we are always folding if the draw comes in, which is ofcourse not true. So we are not taking any implied odds into account. Look up implied odds for more information on this.

I'm not great at math, so I'm just rounding these.
Would be great if someone wanted to check my math and/or do the exact math.
Would be even greater if someone could do guidelines for these with implied odds.


Numbers:

-- # of outs -- -- % chance to draw an out -- -- minimum bet size -- -- example draw --
24.3%5%trips / one overcard
48.5%10%gutshot straight
612.8%15%two overcards
817%21%open ended straight
919.1%24%flush
1531.9%47%open ended straight + flush
1736.257%open ended straight + flush + two overcards
2350%101%?


SOMEONE PLEASE CONFIRM THESE NUMBERS BECAUSE MY MATH IS BAD

Calculation example:

2 outs = 4.3%
Pot: 1000, bet: 40 -- 1040 * 0.043 = 44.72 (more than our bet, so profitable to call)
Pot: 1000, bet: 50 -- 1050 * 0.043 = 45.15 (less than our bet, so not profitable to call)


Question: can we just double the above minimum bet percentages if we're giving a free card on the turn?

Last edited by Yeodan; 04-06-2019 at 08:47 AM.
Concept: What your minimum bet should be depending on your opponents draw Quote

      
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