Very good article, thanks. I almost miss your post as you posted while I was writting that other one. What about my question in my previous post?

Could you expand a bit more on donking the turn? Like what are we trying to represent, what we expect them to fold? Not a fan anymore of bluffing with air, but meh semi-bluffs are ok with me.
I'm one of those guys who cbet a ton and see ocasionally some reg c/c flop and donking blank turn. My default line used to be raise, yet dunno why (maybe was thinking they MUST be bluffin).

That's what it appears like to me. A math guy like *split* might need to step in and confirm for sure tho. If the bet is 20BB then we can assume the pot is going to be fairly large on the next street that 44BB is easily attainable.....as most bets (20BB in this case ) are less than pot sized.

tobe4funas,

in the second paragraph, you are asking as the aggressor what a donk into you onthe turn represents after you CBet the flop IP and villain calls. In that scenario villain can be doing many things obv.

If I were villain doing the donking, I first look at your TCbet stat. How often YOU double barrel. If you have a low figure, the turn is the best time to steal the pot from you....as you are not only facing my turn donk, you are also facing a probably river bet. If I do not take my shot (steal att) on the turn,,,,,you can take a free card maybe allowing you to call as river donk because odds are good enough. The Hammer of Future Bets is all about the steal on the turn.

If you have a high figure, it's not likely I'm going to c/c the flop without a hand...whether a weak made hand I am interested in getting to showdown cheaply or a strong draw. Because Hero TCbets alot, we know a strong draw is profitable because AT LEAST we will get more in the pot on the turn from a Hero dbl barrel.

With neither against a Hero that TCbets a high % of the time, I MUST release my garbage to the flop CBet. You can hold on ONLY if you are supremely confident you can get Hero to fold to a turn donk or turn c/r. I am playing OOP against a higher agg Hero.....default is to fold. Don't look for an open window to spew.....because the window is only cracked ever so slightly (small range of folding aggros.) Folding in this spot with nothing is not weakness. It's good poker.

So the above reasonably explains the bluff component of Bluff or Bust strat in your scenario.

HOMEWORK for toobe4:
Now expand this article by stating what you think Villain (the OOP turn donker) should do to Bust Hero? Obv, Villain has a strong hand.

1. what if Hero has a high TCbet? low TCbet?

2. NOW.......write a few sentences about how bet sizing my stuff and your new stuff can affect the outcome.

i will do the other way around. I'm the hero OOP, villain is OR.
So if villain has high TCbet then donking is not a good option. It's either a c/rai or c/c - depending only on board texture. Tell me if i need to go even deeper and expand on textures i would c/rai etc. If we choose to c/c and the river comes then we can donk out or c/rai also depending on the texture. Now the sizing of the donk well I think if river card didn't complete anything we can donk close to pot without making him run away. If it's a scare card then we should donk out 1/2 i think it would get some calls. However on a river card that doesn't complete anything i prefer c/rai and donking on a scary card.
Hm I think that's it more or less. Waiting for feedback

why is calling otf to c/f turn oop bad?

when im in the blinds vs co/btn opener i p retty much do this religiously with my entire range on paired boards & then just bet river n pretty much get folds 75%+ of the time



will read rest later tho...

so about 18% you are getting the paired board. what do you do the other 82% of the time? How does this strat work against stations?.....is that where you lose the 25% of the time?

trying to think about differing opponents, why are you calling PF?

^^ strictly speaking about vs regs & when i have broadway where i flat to keep in all the hands i beat to extract value post & end up missing flop but getting random paired board.... 5-5-7 flop or something similar... he bets n we call and most of these villains put us on pairs & at the very least Ax n just cant bet turn or call river without either the perfect cards or pairs and more the latter.... & it works a high % of the time for me down here at 25nl, just wanted to point it out though


also vs stations im set mining if i feel its profitable... 3bet as wide as k-10+, 10's+


p.s i am not saying that i absolutely correct or anything but just wanted to put some of my plays out there n see how you/people respond to it... but yea the flat on paired boards for me is pretty profitable imo

setmining against stations is always profitable by the very nature of what a station does.

my thought is if you are calling to setmine a station and miss, but the board is paired,,,where do you go with the hand that rarely improves for you. ((I'll answer, you c/f))

I guess my point is....are you evaluating your opponents BEFORE you call PF?

^^^ always

as i said... i only float with my air range on those paired boards vs regs n find it profitable



also for some reason calling vs co/btn when im in the blinds to c/raise oop when i miss flops= i think im losing $ in these spots since applying it to my game 2-3months ago.... any advice on this play and which villains to do it to & which boards etc?... kinda appreciate feedback on this

missed the "only vs. reg" part.

busy now, but will revisit for you and tobe4 later today.

Also REGULARS....this isn't about me me me me. Join in the fun,,I could use the help

In case you are wondering why all the bumps for cotw threads. 2+2 is about to update the forum software and will be archiving all threads that have not been active since last February. Since the COTW threads are invaluable I am going back through cotw threads from 20009. Trying to do it all in one go during the night to lessen annoyance of taking up space in the unl forum.

Thank you for this, very helpful.