Part III
In Position - When CAN we continue if we missed the board?
Answer: When we can bluff villain off his hand. Geez does that sound familiar?
Folding is STILL THE BEST OPTION! However when we have position, missing the flop isn’t the end of the world. Missing the flop against a call station is pretty close though. By being in position we get to see villain’s actions before we have to finalize our plan for the hand. THAT is very helpful when assessing the situation. “Is villain Bluffable”? should pop into your head anytime you get heads up after a cold call…..not ”Am I ahead with my small pocket pair?” Hand strength has nothing to do with it whether you are IP or OOP. You are playing the situation. As we learned in Alex’s Cold Calling Part I, we cold call to Bust or Bluff. And again, we are discussing hands where we missed the flop so bust is not an option. And to bluff, does it actually matter what we have? Not to us…but it certainly does to villain. What does villain think we have when we show aggression? Can villain put us on a hand that hits “this” particular flop?
And here is the part I like the best. When we cold call villain and still retain positon, villain will assume our mostly likely hand is a small pocket pair or some form of SC, gaps and all. Maybe he can think we’ll have a coupla Broadways or Axs….but in most hands, villain will think we are setmining off his AKo or QQ. We would have raised hands he was truly hoping to avoid. So villain thinks we are setmining and when he CBets and we stick around via a call or raise, villain ALMOST ALWAYS can’t be happy. If we have chosen our villain well, he will check/fold the turn. Doesn’t matter what we have, now does it? So to drive home the point again and again, when you are playing speculative hands because you are either playing to bust or to bluff…. I love bust em! But since we have failed to hit our hand, can we bluff em? IP or Out, if you can’t bluff them, don’t try. Muck and move on.
Some of you will notice that I didn’t give specific strategy about playing IP like I did above for OOP play. Most of the “plays” above just need to be tweaked a tad to play IP and I didn’t want to duplicate the effort. If you follow the logic of OOP play described above, IP bluffing is remarkably easier and somewhat intuitive. Bet at weakness. Make notes on ALL villains that run contrary to the notes/HUD stats you have on them. Bluff in moderation at the right targets.
For me, I will only play against villains that have shown a propensity to fold. Calling Station passives are obviously not bluffable. Aggros that can play effectively with position are not good candidates to “make a play” against. While there are a few other types of players, shorties and bad regulars come to mind as my preferred targets when OOP.
Shorties that don’t CBet unless they hit can be bet at on the turn if a “blank” falls. These are BY FAR the easiest to bluff OOP. An added bonus is you bluff sizing can be miniscule…. somewhere a tad bigger than a minbet works a huge percentage of the time. But if you are HU to the flop with a shortie, you have to stop and understand why. Most likely you were hoping to go multiway with a speculative hand. Against most shorties, isn’t our preferred PF action to fold without a showdownable hand? And against a shortie, cold calling PF with a showdown hand seems…..bad.
Bad regs….well, why are they bad? Tight passives that play fit or fold are optimal in this situation and are the most common form of Bad regular. General strategy against them might be to raise their CBet or call flop but lead the turn if board “did not hit” villain. Also try to find (and take notes on) regulars that often CBet the flop, but rarely continue on with a second barrel. Sometimes these villains check behind the turn with ~ TPGK, but generally you are looking for the habitual CBettor that doesn’t follow through….and therefore is likely on air. <Remember, the flop misses everybody almost always > The bluffing options you have here are to lead the turn or lead the river after a check behind. Personally, I like to lead the turn if the turn completely blanks me and therefore I am completely bluffing. If I pick up a draw on the turn against someone not likely to bet behind….. I would like to get to the river. This is different from flop donking as these should probably be made with hands that are semi-bluffs or as value bets if you feel you are ahead of a villain that doesn’t CBet much.
NITs….well, kinda a tricky subject. You can assume that you can 2 or 3 street bluff a NIT until proven otherwise. Then I write a note that simply says “sticky”. While I watch what they do with others, I really want a direct read on a NIT on how he deals with me. Sometimes it takes a 3 street bluff however. Don’t chicken out if you feel villain can fold to a large river bet. In the back of my mind, I “try” to always remember that NITs love to fold.
Multiple villains….fold seems to be the prudent play. If it gets checked around on the flop and a blank hits the turn, you can always take a shot if you are IP….and I often do this with good results. Sometimes if you are on a very NITty table and the flop gets checked around, donking the turn from the SB can yield good results. But I recommend checking it down even (or especially) if you have no showdown value multiway.
An important part of bluffing is bet sizing. Where slowplaying suggests weakness and is in many ways the Antibluff, bluffing announces strength when you are weak. Therefore to bluff successfully, your bet sizing should be relatively close in pot percentage to give the impression of strength. But not very much more. As others have said, bluff enough to get the job done but not a penny more. Can’t really say what that amount is though. Sometimes 50% of the pot is enough. Sometimes 75%. Sometimes you will run into an opponent that will fold to any sized bet. Table dynamics, your image, board strength, and stack sizes all play a part of the calculation. Consider how you would play the nuts when OOP and use the same tactics to bluff. I am sure this will be explored with more depth when we get to the CotW in August that is titled Bluffs but as a general rule of thumb, size your bets for the outcome you want. Do you want a call or a fold?
Board texture can be used against some villains. If it is a scare card for you, it probably doesn’t make villain happy either….or else he’ll tell you in a BIG way. Time to review
Bostik's CotW on evaluating board texture.
Finally, what is our image? 2+2ers come in all shapes and sizes of Nit, TAG, LAG and all the other alphabets. In general, if you play nitty, you bluffs will work more often. Tighter TAGs (14/11) also have this luxury. What I consider the weakness of this style of play is in the level of hand reading skills shown. We Nits and TTAGs win by brute strength against any and all villains. There is not a lot of bluff in our game…therefore when we do bluff, it succeeds… almost always. Loosen up a bit to becoming a “standard” TAG and sLAG and hand reading assists where brute strength leaves off. Here we can make much more situational bluffs against specific villain. We get “less FE”, but our success rate is still very good. LAGs….well, I’m a tad clueless other than they abuse everybody for a street or two and triple barrel against a select few. It seems to work for the best of them…I just seem to wear my Spew crown too much when I’m really LAGGing it up.
Bonus Section. As an added bonus to your new found bluffiness, you may find yourself getting all kinds of action from the minnows and sharks alike. Most (if not all) of the players at the table will see you spew a few chips to someone
you were sure was a foldaholic. Most (if not all) will not notice why you spewed to this particular player….they only see the spew. So when the shark gets action from you during the next cycle, he is going to have a hard time narrowing your range. So you get to rake a pot or two out from under a shark’s nose… I like it! Better yet…..(1) shark will see you spew more and STILL think you are a fish or (2) win pre-river pots by betting where he KNOWS you are bluffing so he STILL thinks you are a fish. Well my friends, you are a fish. You are the Biggest Badassed Shark in the Ocean and you eat little sharks for breakfast.
AntiBonus Section: Chill out. You CAN overdue a good thing. My favorite four letter word is fold.
Again: Why are we cold calling?
To Bust or Bluff!
OOP=Opt Out of Play. Just fold. Play only against one villain that can fold. Find the villains that take a shot on the flop and give up. Additionally, you have joined this particular table because you have a particular fish targeted. Try to play most hands against this fish and fold marginals against everyone else.
*****Summary******
When OOP, check/fold is the default strategy.
When IP, fold is the default strategy.
When playing back at someone with only a remote chance of improvement, you are balancing on the knife edge between true Greatness and true Spew.
When cold calling PF and you miss the flop with little chance to improve, your hand strength doesn’t matter.