I'm watching this tonight and I'm really looking forward to it. I will chime in with any comments/questions I may have.

Nobody rated this thread. I did. SPlit and mpethybridge, congrats for your good work. You are very nice guys charing your knowledge with us!

Great vid . . . Thanks

Why not call to keep some of his crap hands in the game? Isn't the 4bet polarizing his range, decreasing our odds to win the hand?

Well, look at what he shoved--it didn't polarize his range. I understand your comment, and agree that it is a valid point most of the time against most villains, but I was fairly certain that a guy with a 14% 3 bet percentage was going to do one of two things:

1. he was either going to go, "lol, you got me," and fold most of his range; or,
2. he was going to go, "**** you, you are not 4 betting ME, and shove his entire range.

I didn't care which of those two things he did, because my goal was focused as much on the meta-game as on this individual hand.

The only result I didn't want was one in which he felt like he outplayed me. So I didn't want there to be a flop, because I am going to miss most flops and he is going to lead most flops and I am going to have to fold. So if either of us calls preflop and he wins the pot, he will consider this a green light to keep abusing my steals.

The point of posting this hand was not to discuss it like a regular hand history. I know that I played this hand unusually. It is the only time I have gotten all in preflop with AQ against a full stack in a ring game in over a million hands.

The point I was making was that the bet sizing was manipulated on the 4 bet so that at every stage of the preflop betting my action was +EV, whereas a different 4 bet size could have made calling the 5 bet shove -EV if my read was wrong.

Very nice explanation mpethy, got me thinking...

Thanks a lot for putting in the time for this SS. Being relatively new to the game and not yet having looked much into the numbers behind this was really useful to me esp the AQss example at the end, had to rewatch it a few times to understand it but i see what the numbers are there for now.

Also does anyone else have problems with installing stox combo? Says i'm missing some files when i try start it up.

use flopzilla instead...same program with more options

i dropped the link within the first 50 posts...

glad u enjoyed it!

*SS*

yeah i struggled too, i found this and it solved the problem; i am assuming you have the problem where it says it can't find comdlg32.ocx ?

I call this the FU Shove. I've used it more than once in metagame spots.

If you do the FU shove, please do it safe, you don't want to catch someone's heater

OK:

Preflop: I expect villain to 4x 13% of his range since he is MP1:
22+, ATs+, KJs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KJo+

Flop: he cbets 85%, which is very high, so we only lose 66- and some overcards.

Turn: his cbet is very high again... Contrary to PP on this solution, I am not including 22 and some of the other marginal hands because he would not have played them preflop or on the flop. He is continuing with sets, overpairs and gutshots. Yes, gutshots. They represent a lot of what he flops and it is a great semi-bluff for him on such a scary board. Obviously our image counts and since we seem to be pretty tight, it can work.

Here is his continuation range:
77+, AKs, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AJo , KJo
He does not hit 47% of the time, semibluff included.
We are 55/45 against his range.

Revenue = .47*48.5 + .53*(.55*139-.45*90.5)
Revenue = 22.8 + 40.5 - 21.6
Revenue = 41.7BB

What's interesting is that all the percentages in my calculation are very close to coin-flips (47/53, 55/45) while PP's were very further from that, especially the equity against villain's range (56/44, 23/77).

So I modelled all this in an Excel file (100 BB stacks).

With 80% cbet, 65% turn cbet:
- if villain never ever folds, you need to be 40/60 versus his range to be profitable
- if villain folds half the time, you need to be 20/80 versus his range to be profitable

With 60% cbet and 40% turn cbet:
- if villain never ever folds, you need to be 45/65 versus his range to be profitable
- if villain folds half the time, you need to be 30/70 versus his range to be profitable

Does this make any sense at all?

To paraphrase:

Against a villain who is more inclined 5-bet shove with garbage (don't see many of these at the micros tbh) we want to 4-bet bigger. Otherwise a smaller 4-bet is correct (as long as you do the same thing with AA/KK so that we're not giving off bet-sizing tells).

OK, I am unsticking this thread. I am reliably informed that week 2 thread will be up within 2 hours.

It is now a link in the master "CotW Schedule and Table of Contents" thread for those who want to keep the discussion going.

On behalf of everybody, many thanks to *Split* for getting us off to a great start with this series. well played, sir.

I'm an epic fail at getting Stox Combo to work. Error after error

get flopzilla instead. better program imo...tho i saddly didnt run across it until 2 days AFTER i made this video

Will check it out.

Copy i just downloaded expired last month. Clearly not the night for software and Berge.

Get the new one, they all expire after 30 days.
Creative software management I guess.

mpethebridge i only like your 4bet to 25 if you believed that was the amount that would make him MOST likely to 5 bet shove. if he would 5bet shove lighter when you 4bet smaller, that would be better for you. because even thou you get less odds on the final call, the result is you get the stacks in vs a range... so you want the loosest one. this logic is not taking into account the times he decides to only call thou so i can see where you are coming from because getting called here would suck

great great video split! you are such a nice guy.

the 4b size is rly based on his reaction freq. either way when we 4b the SPR at 100bb will be roughly 1SPR, so its a shove if we miss and shove most of the time when we hit.

thnx...i try to be a nice guy =)

The video link doesn't seem to work anymore. How can I get it?

Just watched it, it's a streaming so make sure you have flash player installed.

Great video indeed, thanks so much.

def =)

funky, make sure u allow the scripts to run on the page and have flash. if you still cannot get it to work, just send me PM and ill get u a DL link

It is working fine now. Before I was getting a "page not found" error of some sort when I clicked the link.

good good. enjoy!