Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Micro-Small Stakes Full Ring Discussion of up to 1/2 online no-limit pot-limit Texas hold'em full ring games, situations and strategies

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-03-2009, 07:59 PM   #26
*Split*
See my coaching listing
 
*Split*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: making videos
Posts: 9,261
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10 View Post
My humble suggestion would be wait until Friday night, but I don't want to hijack the thread. It is really the mods and/or split's decision.
do it up. this thread is for discussion on this topic...sounds good to me
*Split* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 09:15 PM   #27
JH1
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
JH1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 7,301
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

k i was going to post this, but i realized that there are no overpair or straight options in opponent groups and i think my math may be slightly (or more than slightly) skewed. I'll try to rework it.
JH1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 09:58 PM   #28
JH1
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
JH1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 7,301
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

ok here's my take on King Spew's homework:

Option: Shove

Hero is dealt 99
Villain’s PF range = 22+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, AJo+, KJo+, QJo, JTo
On the turn: T 8 7 2
48.5 BB pot after villain bets 22 BB
Villain has 90.5 BB behind

Option: Shove
Villain’s turn cbet range = AA - 77, 22, AKs, ATs, ATo, QJs, QJo, JTs - J9s, JTo - J9o,
T9s, 98s,

I am adjusting the preflop range to include the J9 straight here since villain is willing to fire a double barrel on a connected board. I have removed a lot of the overcards that would most likely not fire again, but left a few in (AK) because he will do this once in a while. I’m deriving this range based on PF range + board texture + postflop tendencies (65% turn cbet in particular).

Villain will continue with straight, OESD (T9), sets, and overpairs. He folds 56% of the time.
Hero has 23% equity versus villain’s continuance range.

Profit (BB) = (0.66 * 48.5) + 0.34((0.23 * 139) – (0.77 * 90.5))
Profit (BB) = 27.16 + 0.34(-37.72)
Profit (BB) = 14.33

Since shoving is profitable, I am assuming that is going to be the best option as opposed to calling. We do fold out all worse hands and only get called by better. BUT we can also fold out some better hands, and we are not going to gain any more value out of worse hands on the river by calling the turn anyways unless those worse hands improve to better hands and end up beating us. And if we end up calling and hitting our straight, we are not getting anymore either since our hand is obvious.

And shoving is even better if we can ever get him to lay down overpairs. I think he may be capable of folding JJ/QQ in this spot.

Flopzilla does not account for turn, which is essentially blank except for villain having 22. I've taken that into account by upping the continuation % a bit. I also removed two 9's from the deck, which we have:



Thoughts?
JH1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 11:40 PM   #29
Chriswitteman
veteran
 
Chriswitteman's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,475
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

The group 'overpair' is missing in stoxpoker combo and from what I can see an overpair is not counted as TP. So if I check the boxes before TP, OESD and twopair to get a continuation range, than overpairs are not counted.

Or am I wrong...?

EDIT: just saw that JH1 also mentioned this.

Last edited by Chriswitteman; 02-03-2009 at 11:46 PM.
Chriswitteman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2009, 12:59 AM   #30
*Split*
See my coaching listing
 
*Split*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: making videos
Posts: 9,261
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
*split*, I just wanted to add that I was doing it wrong when the villain 5 bet shoved, as i was often folding some pretty decent hands.

I manned up last night and 4 bet a BB 3 bettor whose 3 bet from the BB was 14% or so; I 4 bet him with AQs, he shoved and I called. He showed me 44 and got my stack.

Couldn't have done it without you, buddy.
im just hoping i turn u all into huge spewfish so my WR can go up =)

but srsly, AQ in a positional or BvB pot = instanuts

44...not so much unless they hold it against my AQ =)
*Split* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2009, 01:01 AM   #31
*Split*
See my coaching listing
 
*Split*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: making videos
Posts: 9,261
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

also...this is like a nice "next step" type program from StoxCombo

Flopzilla

its the program that JH1 used, and is very simple but with more continuance range settings (like overpairs and such)
*Split* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2009, 02:10 PM   #32
WJL
old hand
 
WJL's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,388
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Ok, so now I've watched the video . . . nice work, by the way . . . and I have a question.

SS speaks of calling the 5-bet shove and how changing the size of the 4-bet can give us the odds to call the shove with more marginal holdings. I don't have the video in front of me here, so I can't give the specifics, but I hope you know what I'm talking about. Here is the question:

Why would we want to manipulate the size of our 4-bet to give us proper odds to call a 5-bet shove with somewhat more marginal holdings? If our goal is to get it in, why wouldn't we just 4-bet shove? Are we just playing games with our own heads to get it in with lighter cards just because we manipulated the odds to make it look ok? Isn't it better to have the FE of shoving than it is to have the reassurance that we had the odds to call? I ran across this question with HOH as well, but never really thought to post on it.

So maybe there's something I still don't fully understand about this, but as long as we're thinking about it, I wanted to ask.
WJL is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2009, 06:32 PM   #33
juguerra
veteran
 
juguerra's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: I'm not that guy.
Posts: 2,806
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Okay, I decided to apply the math Split taught in his video when I was analyzing my last session.

I found 2 spots where I gave up a pot on the turn (IP) when betted into with a flush draw and at least one overcard. I found out that a shove was profitable in both spots, so I made a -EV laydown.

I wanted to post this just to let split now that his video was helpfull in improving my game, it wasn't just interesting to see. It works, thanks and congrats.
juguerra is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2009, 07:16 PM   #34
richbrown360
Pooh-Bah
 
richbrown360's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: In Thailand
Posts: 4,571
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10 View Post
I think you wildly overestimate the ability of the average poker player to do hard work.

This thread has 370 views as of when I'm posting. Out of that, just how many people do you think are going to take King's challenge and actually work out the problem? If the answer is in two digits, I'll be stunned.

Understanding there is this thing called equity is one thing, actually running enough scenarios that a player will know the right play in the heat of battle is another.
I have to keep reminding myself of this, thanks for actually typing it

It doesn't really matter how much 'free' information/advice you give here as far as educating the fish. Its only going to benefit people that put in the hard work. I need to work harder.

Thanks for this video split. I'll have to watch it properly at some point.

ps. Why the fk didn't I know about the stox combo?
richbrown360 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2009, 08:41 PM   #35
TheDataKid
Pooh-Bah
 
TheDataKid's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: I am such a sexy motherfukkaa
Posts: 3,866
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

great vid,
but all of a sudden I really start to dislike the "Concept of the week"

Giving so much information where people normally take coaching for or sign in to a poker training site.. mweh

anyways, nice vid
TheDataKid is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2009, 09:35 PM   #36
I vi ii V7
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
I vi ii V7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Aiming for 100% fold to 3b
Posts: 9,998
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Yeah we're gonna have to start charging people to sign up for 2+2.
I vi ii V7 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 04:00 AM   #37
vinnie2k
grinder
 
vinnie2k's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Idiot from Western Europe
Posts: 502
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

As long as we only charge people with less than 100 posts...

vinnie2k is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 08:08 AM   #38
TheDataKid
Pooh-Bah
 
TheDataKid's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: I am such a sexy motherfukkaa
Posts: 3,866
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

yeah, but people who have, well, .. I don't know ..2060 post or so, can stay for free (;
TheDataKid is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 03:36 PM   #39
KurtSF
Lucky Number Seven
 
KurtSF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: 0EV against everyone ... seriously
Posts: 16,471
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDataKid View Post
yeah, but people who have, well, .. I don't know ..2060 post or so, can stay for free (;
Chat threads don't count.
KurtSF is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 03:42 PM   #40
mirrari
centurion
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 199
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Can anyone post any hand histories where they used equity evaluation to make a decision? I'm struggling to understand how to implement it during game play. More examples I think would solidify my understanding. Thanks in advance.
mirrari is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 04:31 PM   #41
venice10
Referee
 
venice10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Nowhere special
Posts: 24,036
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Quote:
Originally Posted by mirrari View Post
Can anyone post any hand histories where they used equity evaluation to make a decision? I'm struggling to understand how to implement it during game play. More examples I think would solidify my understanding. Thanks in advance.
I suggest reading post #28 of this thread as a start.

But as an aside, you don't do this while playing. This is work you do off-line in the quiet of your home. It is really for players who have an interest in the math side of poker. You do enough of these and their variations to know where to 0 EV line is. When you are playing later, you'll already know what the right play is.

It is even more critical in SNG play.
venice10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 05:14 PM   #42
King Spew
Antici
 
King Spew's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: pation
Posts: 12,772
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Quote:
Originally Posted by KurtSF View Post
Chat threads don't count.
See, I can actually learn something reading one of these Concept threads......
King Spew is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 05:41 PM   #43
TheDataKid
Pooh-Bah
 
TheDataKid's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: I am such a sexy motherfukkaa
Posts: 3,866
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Quote:
Chat threads don't count.
If that was true everybody would be on 200 posts
TheDataKid is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 06:16 PM   #44
mpethybridge
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
mpethybridge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 86.4% dead, most likely
Posts: 16,997
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Quote:
Originally Posted by mirrari View Post
Can anyone post any hand histories where they used equity evaluation to make a decision? I'm struggling to understand how to implement it during game play. More examples I think would solidify my understanding. Thanks in advance.
This is the hand I was talking about upthread--I think i said up there that I was suited, so my bad on that.

Anyway, villain in this hand was 3 betting me pretty much every orbit; in a pretty big sample his 3 bet raise % was 14%



Party Poker $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - View hand 29755
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $105.35
BB: $50.45
UTG: $45.45
UTG+1: $45.05
MP: $25.00
CO: $57.20
Hero (BTN): $100.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with A Q
4 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, BB raises to $6.50,

OK, so he is 3 betting with 14% of his hands:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.232% 51.33% 03.91% 130071968 9898314.50 { AsQh }
Hand 1: 44.768% 40.86% 03.91% 103552395 9898314.50 { 77+, A8s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }


I'm significantly ahead of his range, so I 4 bet:

Hero raises to $25, BB raises to $50.45,


Now we have his 5 bet shove--at this point, his range is pretty polarized--he has a strong hand or he has a hand he is bluffing/semi-bluffing with, so his range looks like this, more or less (I just threw in some trash to represent the crap he might shove on a bluff):

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.265% 40.55% 00.71% 40273408 707897.50 { AsQh }
Hand 1: 58.735% 58.02% 00.71% 57624429 707897.50 { JJ+, 44, 22, AKs, 54s, AKo, 54o }


So now I am an underdog to his shoving range. But there's $75 in the pot and it is $25 to me, so I only need to win 1 time in 3 to break even. Since I actually win 40% of the time against this range, this is a profitable call.


Hero calls $25.45

Final Pot: $101.15
BB shows 4 4
Hero shows A Q
BB wins $98.15
(Rake: $3.00)

Now, suppose I had only 4 bet to $18. This would have put $68 in the pot and it would have been $32 more for me to call. It would have been a much less profitable play for me to 4 bet to $18 and call a shove than it was for me to 4 bet to $25 and call a shove; this was why I 4 bet big, to give myself an easy call against even a very tight shoving range (and to maximize my fold equity).
mpethybridge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 06:23 PM   #45
SammyG-SD
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SammyG-SD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Original Bacon MVP
Posts: 12,600
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Shouldn't we adjust his 5bet range to include most PPs? still makes it profitable but then we can play around with 4bet sizes....just for kicks.
SammyG-SD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 06:24 PM   #46
*Split*
See my coaching listing
 
*Split*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: making videos
Posts: 9,261
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

There is an issue (which WJL eluded to earlier) with making ur 4b that big and it is that you allow you opponents to play closer to perfect. they know you are close to commitment so they will 5b bluff less often and only come thru with QQ+/AK on average. So yes you maximize FE...but there are better and more profitable ways to go about 4b-ing

(i only mentioned the 4b example in the vid to show how the math changed...notice i never mentioned if the play itself was good nor bad)

if by making a play you allow ppl to play perfect and dont allow them to make mistakes...then you are making a mistake yourself.

*SS*
*Split* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 06:26 PM   #47
mpethybridge
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
mpethybridge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 86.4% dead, most likely
Posts: 16,997
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Quote:
Originally Posted by SammyG-SD View Post
Shouldn't we adjust his 5bet range to include most PPs? still makes it profitable but then we can play around with 4bet sizes....just for kicks.
It makes it more profitable because I am crushed by a smaller % of his range (AK, AA, KK and QQ):

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.628% 42.11% 00.51% 67785154 827722.00 { AsQh }
Hand 1: 57.372% 56.86% 00.51% 91515978 827722.00 { 44+, 22, AKs, 54s, AKo, 54o }
mpethybridge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 06:29 PM   #48
mpethybridge
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
mpethybridge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 86.4% dead, most likely
Posts: 16,997
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Quote:
Originally Posted by *Split* View Post
There is an issue (which WJL eluded to earlier) with making ur 4b that big and it is that you allow you opponents to play closer to perfect. they know you are close to commitment so they will 5b bluff less often and only come thru with QQ+/AK on average. So yes you maximize FE...but there are better and more profitable ways to go about 4b-ing

(i only mentioned the 4b example in the vid to show how the math changed...notice i never mentioned if the play itself was good nor bad)

if by making a play you allow ppl to play perfect and dont allow them to make mistakes...then you are making a mistake yourself.

*SS*
I agree with this, on average

I guess I should expand on this:

I was ready to get stacks in against this villain in this situation as soon as i looked down at AQ. he had been 3 betting me ruthlessly and it was time to make a stand. I sized my bet the way i did because I needed 3 to 1 to call even if he was rarely 5 bet shoving:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.800% 27.66% 01.14% 14206360 587851.00 { AsQh }
Hand 1: 71.200% 70.06% 01.14% 35987058 587851.00 { QQ+, 44, AKs, AKo }

and there was no way I was folding this hand in this situation. So I wanted to get my money in good even against a solid 5 bet shove.

My 4 bet was sized that way for the reasons I specified--I wanted to be able to b/e on a call against his tightest range (allowing for one semi/bluffing hand) and profitably call against his likely range.

So basically, I planned to get stacks in no matter what, and in this case, all of my money went in good--my 4 bet was a value with my hand a favorite over his 3 betting range and i was clearly getting correct odds to call a 5 bet shove even against an uber tight range.

Last edited by mpethybridge; 02-05-2009 at 06:35 PM.
mpethybridge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 07:04 PM   #49
cds0699
LOSING
 
cds0699's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 9,028
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Absolutely awesome video, thank you very much.
cds0699 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 07:24 PM   #50
WJL
old hand
 
WJL's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,388
Re: Concept of the Week: Equity Exploration

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
So basically, I planned to get stacks in no matter what, and in this case, all of my money went in good--my 4 bet was a value with my hand a favorite over his 3 betting range and i was clearly getting correct odds to call a 5 bet shove even against an uber tight range.
This is exactly the point I was trying to make. Isn't a 4-bet shove going to fold at least some of the hands that are beating you now that Villain might 5-bet shove if given the odds? Aren't we just playing a game with our own minds making the 4-bet to give our selves the 'odds' to call the 5-bet shove when we were planing to stack off all along? There is exactly 0 fold equity in calling a shove; very likely the 4-bet shove has a non-zero FE.

I admire the discipline you are using here in making the right plays mathematically. It just makes that spite shove so much less enjoyable. I prefer to spew with complete awareness and vindictiveness myself.
WJL is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:02 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online