NL Holdem $0.05(BB)
BTN ($1.59) [VPIP: 36.4% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 40% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 11]
SB ($5.3) [VPIP: 45.5% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 50% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 11]
HERO ($5) [VPIP: 23.9% | PFR: 15.1% | AGG: 27.4% | 3-Bet: 5.9% | Hands: 813]
UTG ($3.23) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 16.7% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 6]
MP ($3.99) [VPIP: 45.5% | PFR: 9.1% | AGG: 10% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 11]
HJ ($1.55) [VPIP: 45.5% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 42.9% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 11]
CO ($1.5) [VPIP: 18.2% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 33.3% | Hands: 11]

Dealt to Hero: A K

UTG Folds, MP Raises To $0.17, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $0.50, MP Calls $0.33

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.42 effective]
Flop ($1.02): 9 7 7
HERO Bets $0.60 (Rem. Stack: 3.90), MP Calls $0.60 (Rem. Stack: 2.89)

Turn ($2.22): 9 7 7 T
HERO Checks, MP Bets $0.40 (Rem. Stack: 2.49), HERO Calls $0.40 (Rem. Stack: 3.50)

River ($3.02): 9 7 7 T 6
HERO Bets $3.50 (allin), MP Folds





Is it correct to turn AK into a bluff here? board on the river is scary w/ 4 to a straight and the flush draw, block nut flush.

Are you Cbetting on this flop? have the backdoor nut flush draw and lots of outs to top pair. board is extremely dry.

I'm checking flop. The texture is not favorable for your 3betting range. On average, villain has won some equity, so the odds he folds vs. cbet are low. And no, the board is not extremely dry. A dry board where you could get some value vs. other aces would be something like 2-6-T rainbow.

As played, turn call is standard vs. this sizing. I'm folding against a standard sized float though.
The problem with donk-shoving turn is that you represent very little, and the river card is great for villain. Having the Ac in your hand is not that relevant, because leading with an overbet is not logical when villain can have all the full houses. The sizing is so polarized that it could induce some hero calls from hands like JJ, QQ, JcTc. In addition, all draws have hit. In a 3bet pot, he's not folding an 8.

This all makes sense. Def right about the board, figured 3bet calling range for average villain is gonna have very few 7s and I can potentially backdoor a pair against a single 9. Are you only cbetting pairs+ on this board then? Cause that follows from your advice.

I do think that it's pretty ****ing hard to have a full house after the turn bet though, I took any boat besides 66 out of their range. turn bets under 25% pot are pretty common at these stakes and they're marginal holdings every time. People either trap by checking behind or bet bigger w/ the nuts.

Also it wasn't an overbet since pot was $3.02 on river and villain had $2.49 in stack. was ~80%

I'm also cbetting some draws as semi-bluff, who have little showdown value (like non nut flush draws), for balance.

You are probably right with your least read, but be careful. I wouldn't think too much this way when playing higher stakes. He could also bet so small to make a shove OTR much less scary.

100% agree. The sizing could definitely be a full house trying to set up a 3/4pot river shove or bait a c/r, but you have to put your opponent on being a player capable of playing a hand that way. I play much differently against players who, for example, I've seen 3bet isolating from the button/CO, than those I've seen open limping from EP or w/ a VPIP/PFR of 50/5.

Flop + turn
Looking at this on the flop and constructing a plan, I think it's good to ask how your opponent will play various hands.

At NL5 I assume they'll be calling the flop and turn with:
- Flush draws (note: you block a lot of these with your ace of clubs)
- Straight draws
- Top pair
- Second pair
- JT for a gutshot + overcards

And I assume they'll be calling the flop and folding the turn to:
- Low pocket pairs
- Two overcards
- 65 gutshot

My impression is that it's worth cbetting the flop to get a lot of the junk to fold, especially given that it's a 3bet pot and you have initiative. But planning to barrel doesn't make sense to me given that you're not deep enough for a triple barrel and Villain looks like they'll be continuing to the river with kinda a lot of stuff.

As a rule of thumb, at NL5 where people are pretty calling station-y, I think it's good to save your bluffs for pristine spots and focus on playing value hands instead.

River
As played, I agree that the six of clubs is a pretty good scare card. But I have two pretty huge hesitations about bluffing:

1) Is Villain capable of folding strong hands like two pair? Overpairs? Top pair? I've heard that a rule of thumb with fish is that they can't bring themselves to fold something like an overpair even on scary boards, so I'd be very cautious.
2) The check-call on the turn. I could see Villain interpreting this as you being weak and justifying a call with something like a weak top pair, or even, possibly, a nine.

I don't feel confident enough that a bluff would work here, given those two things. If you have reads on your opponent that they are more of the thinking type and are capable of folding, that does change things. Although if he is the thinking type, he'd be suspicious about the story you're telling. You'd probably want to bet or check-raise the turn with your flush draws. And you'd want to bet the turn with your overpairs to get value from and protect against all of the draws.