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Bluff this river in suicidal spot? Bluff this river in suicidal spot?

07-23-2018 , 10:44 PM
PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.25/$0.50 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $31.88 (64 bb)
MP: $37.93 (76 bb)
CO (Hero): $50.00 (100 bb)
BU: $38.40 (77 bb)
SB: $51.04 (102 bb)
BB: $44.73 (89 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with 5 4
2 players fold, Hero raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, 1 fold, BB 3-bets to $4.50, Hero calls $3, BTN calls $3

Flop: ($13.75) 3 A 7 (3 players)
BB bets $6.53, Hero calls $6.53, BTN calls $6.53

Turn: ($33.34) Q (3 players)
BB bets $15.84, Hero calls $15.84, BU folds

River: ($65.02) A (2 players)
BB checks

Hero?


When villain barrels into 2 players OTT, the vast majority of his betting range has to be Ax and sets. My combo draw is too good to fold, but I don't really want to jam turn because I don't expect to have fold equity vs a likely Ax hand. I call and brick, and villain checks. I'm at the absolute bottom of my range here, but is it worth bluffing given that villain will frequently be trapping with Ax or a boat here?
Bluff this river in suicidal spot? Quote
07-24-2018 , 12:15 AM
Either reraise or fold the flop.
Bluff this river in suicidal spot? Quote
07-25-2018 , 12:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoLimi7
Either reraise or fold the flop.
Chapter 1, Poker for Nitty F**ks: Fold double gutter + BDFD in position vs single c-bet.

Great advice grandma. Go knit a sweater.
Bluff this river in suicidal spot? Quote
07-25-2018 , 01:12 PM
I think if you're gonna bluff, jamming turn is best option, but I'd like stats on vil for 3-bet pots ideally. Best play is just give up.
Bluff this river in suicidal spot? Quote
07-25-2018 , 07:35 PM
:}
Bluff this river in suicidal spot? Quote
07-26-2018 , 03:27 AM
I don't play those stakes but this is like the worst card to bluff for me.
Bluff this river in suicidal spot? Quote
07-26-2018 , 12:02 PM
The best spot to bluff this imo would be to shove the turn.

If you ALWAYS get it in vs BB (and BTN folds) on the turn you're risking $35.20 to win $48.95 so you need 41.83% to breakeven.

4c5c vs a tight range of AQ, AA, QQ is 30.91% on that board.

If the button also calls with a range of AK,AQ,77,33 you're still 31.06% (but with big enough odds for this to be a call)

Take into account the times both opponents fold to a turn shove and I think this spot is definitely +ev, albeit high variance.

As played, I'll shutdown on the river. You have two clubs so it's less likely the BB was semi-bluffing a turned flush draw. You also have all the straighty cards your opponent could of potentially bluffed with. It's so likely they have trips plus and will snap you off
Bluff this river in suicidal spot? Quote

      
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