Quote:
Originally Posted by Manko989
You're laying villain 3.8:1 (.20) so as a bluff you should only be using a few high equity semi-bluff combos like A2, A3, A4, 45, 55, 66. If you used a bigger bet sizing you could add your top suited A's with back door flush draws and 67s with back door flush draws and that would be plenty.
Hi Manko. I have some questions. I am trying to get my head around bluff/value ratios. My question really is about how you determine how many bluffs to balance value on the flop/turn etc. Please correct me if I'm wrong at any stage ...
According to GTO theory, if hero's raise was on the river then his ideal bluff to value ratio would be 4:1 that is 1 bluff for every 4 value. We know this because, as you have demonstrated, hero is offering Villain those odds, and in order to aim for balance and thus theoretically make our opponent indifferent, our optimal bluff ratio is 20% or 4:1, right?
However, this is the flop we are dealing with and not the river...
So I am also aware that it is often stated that one should generally aim roughly for a 2:1 ratio of bluff to value on the flop, 1:1 on the turn and 1:2 on the river. Is this a rough template that you use?
I have watched a couple of Matt Janda's videos on youtube and using these I have started to play around trying to balance ranges with Flopzilla. In his excellent video "Flopzilla part 1" he states that in general "you should be raising approximately 1.5 - 2 combos of bluffs for every 1 value made hand you raise [on the flop]". He obviously goes into much more detail, explaining that there are a number of factors (board texture, how wide you raise, ...) that effect this ratio, but certainly as a base this is good.
I assume this flop should be a relatively easy one to attack, as we shouldn't really have a huge number of value raises here flatting a MP open from the BTN, right? So..having plugged this flop and a BTN flat vs MP range into Flopzilla, I played around with a potential value raise range and looked to see if I could work out were you were coming from with the range you suggested for bluffs.
So...If our value raise range here was as tight as only raising straights and sets, (which potentially it should be? considering Villain has a stronger over-pair range than we do, in that he has QQ-AA, and we don't?) then, going by my flatting range, we have 16 combos of hands we can raise for value (A5s, 65s, 44,33 and 22. So If we were to follow Matt Janda's template then we would be aiming for roughly 32 combos of bluffs, is this close to what you would be aiming for, assuming Hero had made a larger sized raise? And did you recommend a smaller bluffing frequency to this because the raise was so small?
I found that the bluffs you recommended (A2s, A3s, A4s, 45s, 55, 66) added up to only 21 combos, which is evidently well below 2:1 ratio, but with AQs, AJs and ATs combos that have the BDFD we have 30 combos which comes very close to balancing the value raise range mentioned above at a ratio of 2:1.
Thanks in advance Manko, I know there's a lot there, any help is much appreciated. I'm hoping Brussels might have a word or two to add too....