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Bad card to continue bluff on river? Bad card to continue bluff on river?

02-21-2018 , 08:07 PM
Villain tanked in this hand and eventually called me with AKo. Was the Q a bad card to continue my bluff? I guess a thinking player might figure that I don't have many Q's in my range considering the fact that I didn't bet the flop, which rights off AQ, QTs and probably KQs, leaving just 3 combos of QJs.

I guess I could have bet the flop with the weakest of my suited ace hands? But i definitely don't hate the flop check back with the intention of betting the turn if checked to again

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 110.2 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
SB: 91 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
BB: 191.2 BB (VPIP: 23.40, PFR: 15.96, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 94)
UTG: 223.2 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
Hero (UTG+1): 110 BB
MP: 159.4 BB (VPIP: 20.59, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 9.76, Hands: 104)
MP+1: 103.6 BB (VPIP: 7.41, PFR: 6.88, 3Bet Preflop: 1.45, Hands: 190)
CO: 53.4 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 2 A

UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) Q 3 T
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 5
UTG checks, Hero bets 5.2 BB, UTG calls 5.2 BB

River: (17.8 BB, 2 players) Q
UTG checks, Hero bets 12.8 BB, UTG calls 12.8 BB
Bad card to continue bluff on river? Quote
02-22-2018 , 01:26 AM
The F does hit V's range, but I'd go ahead and fire on the F.

1) Assuming no RR comes, it should give us the chance of getting a free card on the T
2) If we do hit, let's start building the pot now

As played, I like the T bet, you just got checked to twice, clearly a time to put in a bet and try to take it down now. You have outs if called and, pretty clearly, the V doesn't have Qx+.

I'm OK with taking a shot at the R, but I don't like the bet size. Depending on opponent, either go like 1/3 - 1/2 pot (to represent a suck B) or go for the overbet (since it's clear there aren't a bunch of Qs in your range either).
Bad card to continue bluff on river? Quote
02-22-2018 , 10:03 AM
This might be a fold pre against an UTG raise, but I don't have a problem playing a suited ace this deep.

This flop is a slam-dunk c-bet with the nut flush draw, an overcard, and some backdoor straight equity. If you c-bet the flop, you also need to barrel the turn when the 5 comes.

You also need to bet this turn. Your hand realizes its equity so well across a variety of rivers.

On the river, I think this is a check. I think you have a tiny bit of showdown value against hands like K-J or J-9 that don't raise the turn. You also block air that your opponent can call the turn with (hearts). You have very little value in your range due to your flop check-back. (You aren't calling a raise from UTG+1 with many queens and then checking back top pair). If you are putting in a bet, it should be trying to fold out 10x hands, so you likely need to bet on the bigger side.
Bad card to continue bluff on river? Quote
02-22-2018 , 08:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by statoverflow
This might be a fold pre against an UTG raise,
I agree. This is way too loose I would say now that I think about it.

[QUOTE=statoverflow;53508829]

Quote:
Originally Posted by statoverflow
This flop is a slam-dunk c-bet with the nut flush draw, an overcard, and some backdoor straight equity. If you c-bet the flop, you also need to barrel the turn when the 5 comes.
I don't disagree with this entirely Stat. However, my logic for generally checking the NFD on the flop is twofold. Firstly, like you say we do have some showdown value, that we don't want to get bluffed off, and secondly we have a huge amount of equity that again we don't want to get raised off (be it value or bluff). If we bet the flop and then get priced out then that is a disaster with a hand that we would really like to see another card with, wouldn't you say?
Bad card to continue bluff on river? Quote
02-22-2018 , 11:52 PM
betts, How much of a disaster is it if you get RRd on the F? The action goes V chk-Hero B (5BB)-V R (15BB)-Hero C(10BB). The pot is 37 BB with effective stacks of 92 BB. You have the nut flush draw, two backdoor straight draws, and an overcard.
Bad card to continue bluff on river? Quote
02-23-2018 , 09:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JFTIII
betts, How much of a disaster is it if you get RRd on the F? The action goes V chk-Hero B (5BB)-V R (15BB)-Hero C(10BB). The pot is 37 BB with effective stacks of 92 BB. You have the nut flush draw, two backdoor straight draws, and an overcard.
I definitely do not hate a flop bet in this case JFT because our suited ace is the worst we can have, and as you said we have additional equity with the 5. I think this is quite an interesting flop looking at it from the suited aces part of our range because their are quite a lot of these that you could convince me are good to bet with. Are you betting all your suited aces though? Or are you keeping some in your checkback range? Take A6s or A7s for example?
Bad card to continue bluff on river? Quote
02-24-2018 , 02:43 AM
betts, My default with position and the nut flush draw -- all of them -- is going to be to B the F. I want to start pumping a pot I have a decent chance to catch the nuts in and, hopefully, get the option to take the free card on the turn. Also, if V folds, that's a good outcome too.

All of this is of course dependent on the V, my table reputation, and, occasionally, varying from my default play -- if I think the competition is good enough to exploit my play. E.g. my early position starting range is pretty tight, so, if the F comes 7s4h2s and I B the F, a bunch of my betting range is going to be flush draws. Are the Vs able to figure that out and take advantage of that knowledge?
Bad card to continue bluff on river? Quote
02-24-2018 , 01:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JFTIII
betts, My default with position and the nut flush draw -- all of them -- is going to be to B the F. I want to start pumping a pot I have a decent chance to catch the nuts in and, hopefully, get the option to take the free card on the turn.
My biggest problem with this is that every time you check behind IP you don't have the NFD which is exploitable. Yes, wether or not that matters too much depends on wether or not your opponents are good enough to pick up on the fact that your checking range is weak i guess, is that where you are coming from?

Also say you cbet with A6hh on this board and get raised, what now? I fell like you are putting yourself in a difficult spot here and on later streets, and bloating the pot unnecessarily, would you disagree?
Bad card to continue bluff on river? Quote
02-25-2018 , 10:08 PM
Actually, I'm also likely to chk some made hands for pot control and to try to induce a bluff from V - e.g. KdTd. So, just because I chk'd doesn't mean I'm defenseless. I'm trying to B with strong hands, to build pots, and weak hands, to induce V to fold. This hand just happens to have a little of both of those qualities.

Yes, at the levels I'm playing, not many opp are both thinking and capable of exploiting me when I stray from GTO play. That's the reason, I usually go with my default play.

I'm certainly not happy to get Rd on the F here with A6s, but that isn't going to happen often. When it does, I'll have to take the size of the R, size of stacks, and the V into acct. So, assuming I have A6s above, make a 5BB cbet, and get Rd 10BB, we go to the T with a 37BB pot and 92BB effective stacks. I'll make that C.
Bad card to continue bluff on river? Quote
02-26-2018 , 02:28 PM
I would usually be folding pre here unless I knew the rest of the table would play very passive and be unlikely to raise behind me with many stronger holdings.

I like to fire the flop here because V would almost always bet good Qs, over pairs and most draws for the semi bluff with range advantage. I think you can bet smaller with the nut flush draw and gutter on the turn here. You shouldn't really be worried about many other draws from V as he would have bet flop so he mostly has 10x, under pairs and AJ/AK type hands. By betting smaller you should get almost the same number of folds at a fraction of the cost. A smaller turn bet will also set up a cheaper river bluff for you. I think the Q is one of the worst cards for you on the river though and not one I would continue to bluff against as you'll get heroed by 10x, some under pairs and even AJ/AK on occasion.
Bad card to continue bluff on river? Quote
02-26-2018 , 03:47 PM
I don't like this call on PF as the raise comes from the UTG. If it came from either the CO or the BU, I'd 3bet with this hand in some spots like the ones who love to steal.
Bad card to continue bluff on river? Quote
02-26-2018 , 06:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by doyougnome
I would usually be folding pre here unless I knew the rest of the table would play very passive and be unlikely to raise behind me with many stronger holdings.

I like to fire the flop here because V would almost always bet good Qs, over pairs and most draws for the semi bluff with range advantage. I think you can bet smaller with the nut flush draw and gutter on the turn here. You shouldn't really be worried about many other draws from V as he would have bet flop so he mostly has 10x, under pairs and AJ/AK type hands. By betting smaller you should get almost the same number of folds at a fraction of the cost. A smaller turn bet will also set up a cheaper river bluff for you. I think the Q is one of the worst cards for you on the river though and not one I would continue to bluff against as you'll get heroed by 10x, some under pairs and even AJ/AK on occasion.
again ..nice answer, clear logic, makes sense, thank you
Bad card to continue bluff on river? Quote
02-26-2018 , 06:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alexbrasile
I don't like this call on PF as the raise comes from the UTG. If it came from either the CO or the BU, I'd 3bet with this hand in some spots like the ones who love to steal.
I agree with all of this, thanks for your comment
Bad card to continue bluff on river? Quote
02-27-2018 , 12:11 AM
Don't like the preflop call its too loose, but if you want to have a 3bet bluff range this is a good spot since you block AA and AK and can make straight and flush. Should have bet the flop instead of the turn where you have more equity.

You cant really have a Q here after you check the flop, so youd be value betting AT, KT, JT, T9. you should be bluffing with A4s,A2s,K9s,J9s. your logic in bluffing to rep a Q is wrong but overall it is one of the hands you should be bluffing with.

I like the bet as played and v calling with AK is definitely not +EV, but really you should never end up in that position with A2s considering the loose preflop call
Bad card to continue bluff on river? Quote

      
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