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Old 07-29-2017, 12:56 PM   #1
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 48
AQo BTN vs Short Stack Raise

He's aggro 38/4/8
I'm 19/11/2.9

Just wondering if I should just fold here on the btn or if that's the right play, I feel like I knew hge was getting it in

    Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37801660

    SB: $2.34 (117 bb)
    BB: $2.09 (104.5 bb)
    UTG+1: $3.30 (165 bb)
    UTG+2: $0.73 (36.5 bb)
    MP1: $2.98 (149 bb)
    MP2: $1.77 (88.5 bb)
    MP3: $2.06 (103 bb)
    CO: $1.21 (60.5 bb)
    Hero (BTN): $6.68 (334 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with A Q
    UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.07, 4 folds, Hero raises to $0.18, 2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.73 and is all-in, Hero calls $0.55

    Flop: ($1.49) 7 6 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
    Turn: ($1.49) K (2 players, 1 is all-in)
    River: ($1.49) 6 (2 players, 1 is all-in)


    Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
    Yori96 is offline   Reply With Quote
    Old 07-29-2017, 02:18 PM   #2
    Brussels Sprout
    old hand
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    Re: AQo BTN vs Short Stack Raise

    Originally Posted by Yori96 View Post
    He's aggro 38/4/8
    He may be aggro post-flop but those numbers indicate that he's actually quite passive pre-flop. He's getting into a lot of pots but is only raising a very narrow range (4%). If that value is accurate then that translates to a range of 99+, AQs+, AQo. Your hand has 33% equity versus that range so getting it in is -EV.

    Of course this assumes that the 4% figure is accurate and unless you have at least 500 hands on the villain it almost certainly isn't. At best over small samples it's an indicator that they're not raising trash. If we were to double villain's opening range to 8% (88+, AJ+, KQ+) your hand is still a 47% underdog though.

    I don't think calling is ideal here either. You're going to miss most flops and have to fold to the inevitable c-bet from an aggro post-flop villain. Then any flops you do hit you could still be dominated (by the likes of AK on an A-high flop or KK on a Q-high flop for example). It might seem quite nitty but I think the best play here is to fold and move on.
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    Old 07-29-2017, 02:30 PM   #3
    Join Date: Jan 2017
    Posts: 48
    Re: AQo BTN vs Short Stack Raise

    Thanks for the tips brussels, I guess I still need to understand the HUD better, are there any places that give a good breakdown of the hud/how to use/setup and understand it properly? I know it's a small sample size I ran 1000 hands today (3 table) and am up 44.83bb/100, will probably do another 1000 hands later, have some stuff to do now.

    Edit :

    Are there places that also give information on general good area for VPIP/PFR/3BET ect? Presently over 3k hands I'm 21.8/13.3/7.35

    Is there also a place that will teach me how to use hold'em manager to actually see where my biggest leaks are ect?
    Yori96 is offline   Reply With Quote
    Old 08-07-2017, 10:30 AM   #4
    raju's Avatar
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    Posts: 671
    Re: AQo BTN vs Short Stack Raise

    Try the master sticky in this forum. Pokey's hud guide is in there plus a ton more gold

    Edit: it's in the small stakes forum, here it is

    Omg i suck at posting links

    Last edited by raju; 08-07-2017 at 10:46 AM.
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    Old 08-08-2017, 05:10 PM   #5
    Join Date: Aug 2016
    Posts: 107
    Re: AQo BTN vs Short Stack Raise

    Looking at what B-sprout has said id agree. A call creates quite a low SPR (3.6) and the 3bet when the guys running such a low PFR is very hopeful. I think you hit best case scenario being close to a flip. I mean how often does he show up with AJ/KQ?

    An almost 5 by in upswing beautiful.
    Gabe16 is offline   Reply With Quote
    Old 08-13-2017, 04:52 AM   #6
    Join Date: Apr 2017
    Posts: 179
    Re: AQo BTN vs Short Stack Raise

    PFR/3B% isn't an accurate representation for cold 4bets, although you can extrapolate from these stats what a cold 4bet range from this type of player might be.

    Given the pot odds, you need 0.55 / (1.49 + 0.55 - 0.05) = 0.27638... = ~27.64% equity vs. V's range to break even on a call. You can plug your hand into an equity calculator to determine vs. what ranges we can profitably call, for example:

    AA = 7.30%
    KK+ = 21.22%
    QQ+ = 23.49%
    JJ+ = 30.02%

    AA,AKs = 15.90%
    KK+,AKs = 22.07%
    QQ+,AKs = 23.70%
    JJ+,AKs = 29.23%

    AA,AK = 21.74%
    KK+,AK = 23.60%
    QQ+,AK = 24.40%
    JJ+,AK = 28.16%
    TT+,AK = 30.63%

    AA,AK,AQs = 24.76%
    KK+,AK,AQs = 25.66%
    QQ+,AK,AQs = 26.20%
    JJ+,AK,AQs = 29.37%

    AA,AK,AQ = 32.12%

    We notice that whenever V shoves JJ or AQo then our call is profitable.

    We also notice that the largest range V can have where a call is unprofitable is {QQ+,AQs+,AKo}, which is 2.12%.

    If V shows a JJ/AQo C4B or has a C4B% > 2.12% (or worse), you should call. Until this information is apparent, we have to rely on assumptions of his range based on his available stats, population tendencies, and ideal play.

    You can determine V's ideal shove with a solver if you know UTG+2's open and your 3bet range. However, this V's stats are already not ideal, so you are going to lose some EV while playing unexploitably.

    For population tendencies, you could assume V's C4B% is near other short-stacked V's at your limit. What have you seen other ~38/4/8 V's C4B? Are the players in your pool only stacking off preflop with KK+?

    With enough population reads you can play to exploit V until his stats deviate from your assumptions.
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