NL $0.25/0.50
Everyone apart from crazy player in BB is 100BB deep ($50)

Raise UTG+1 with QQ

Get 3bet by tight mid position player (3bets with 4% of hands).

Crazy in BB goes all in for $20 (turns out he had K10 so can assume jam with around 40% of hands).

What do I do? If I just call, assume tight mid position raiser will jam over me.

All in or fold?

Well good question - all in or fold? Raising to $40 or $60 doesn't make much sense because you are pot committed and you are giving the mid position player odds to call if he has a hand like AK.

The amount of your raise and the amount of the 3 bet may be relevant to this analysis.

If I didn't know that the bb raised w KT, but I did know he was reckless and short stacked, I would put him on a wide range. Reckless and ss, I'd put him on big and med pairs and even 77,66,55, Axs, AK,AQ,AJ,AT,KQ,KJs,QJs.

The tight player, 3 betting you from MP is a problem, but I think you are giving him more credit than he is due. A 4% 3-betting range is pretty wide imo. It sounds like he is tight AND aggressive.

My stats show that I 3 bet around 1.8% of the time. And let me tell you, I 3 bet a lot more than AA, KK and AK, which are the only hands I would be worried about if I were you. I actually 3 bet quite a bit, I think. I 3 bet much more than I used to, years ago, anyway. I 3 bet a lot more than proponents of tight play recommend (i.e., Harrington and others like him). I'll 3 bet pocket 7's+, I'll 3 bet KQo, I'll 3 bet Axs and many more hands, IF the circumstances feel right. I'm still only at 1.8%. (You might want to ask yourself, is there something about the present circumstances that may feel right to the MP player? How does he perceive you? Have you shown down suited connectors or weak off suit Broadway hands recently? Do you fold to 3 bet often or have you recently? Do you call and then check-fold flops frequently?)

A player who has a reliable 3 bet stat of 4%+ most likely 3 bets any hand he would consider calling with and that leaves a lot of hands you beat, such as JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, AKs, AQs, AJs, AKo, AQo, KQs -- and MANY more hands than just those to get to 4%.

People who 3 bet that wide also are 3 betting hands which they will fold to an all-in.

I have seen poker writers advocate for a 3 betting range as high as 8%. That is insane, if you ask me. A range that wide is easy to spot as being way out of line. You're just asking to get picked apart by the lay-in-wait, trappers. That's my opinion, anyway, others may disagree.

Based upon the ranges I laid out for these 2 players, I think you are crushing both of their ranges. Therefore, my answer to your question is that I think you should shove all in and hope to play HU vs the all in, short stacked maniac.

That's my 2 cents.

GL out there.

Magnum

What sample size are you using to categorise the players as tight and crazy. Assuming it's a worthwhile one I am getting it in here. If you imagine mid position villain is never bluffing [unlikely] the top 4% of hands includes AK/JJ and even AQs. Why do you assume the tight player will jam if you flat the 4bet?

I think I had around 1k hands sample size via poker tracker.

I don't know. I think at the time I was afraid of the jam, but looking back - I suppose villain might be more likely to jam with his weaker hands if I flat the $20.

Does that mean if I call the $20, I always have to call a jam in that position - and that it's better to flat than to jam myself?



Also, thanks for your reply Magnum. I think the problem is that if I do jam, the villain is only ever calling me with the top end of his range (AA, KK, AK). Since he only has $4.50 invested in the pot after 3 betting me, I'm only winning that $4.50 when he folds out JJ, AQ, KQ etc.

Yeah a significant amount of the people on my tables have a 3bet percentage of around 8%. The very good players tend to balance the times they get 4bet by jamming some of the weaker hands in their range. It's a crazy looking strategy but it does make them very hard to play against - they tend to balance the big losses by winning lots of smaller pots and stacking opponents when they do have AA, KK.

I think it is fold or shove. If you just flat you expose yourself to the tight players shove even with A-K or A-Q and than your 3 ways. I agree with Magnum 4% has a wider range.

Personally myself I am folding A-K if you were to jam

THE STATS MUST BE LYING