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Old 03-13-2018, 06:39 PM   #1
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 294
AKo pre vs fishy overbet

should we just be happy to be getting it in here vs obvious fish with 46BB?
What if spewy fish type has 100bb ?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 46 BB (VPIP: 48.84, PFR: 18.60, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)
CO: 40.4 BB (VPIP: 55.10, PFR: 4.08, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 50)
BTN: 44.8 BB (VPIP: 35.48, PFR: 6.45, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 31)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 7.74, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 3.28, Hands: 171)
BB: 40 BB (VPIP: 17.42, PFR: 2.71, 3Bet Preflop: 2.60, Hands: 445)
UTG: 139 BB (VPIP: 14.44, PFR: 12.83, 3Bet Preflop: 1.67, Hands: 187)
Hero (UTG+1): 123.2 BB
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.39, PFR: 10.07, 3Bet Preflop: 3.77, Hands: 141)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K A

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, MP+1 raises to 46 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 43 BB

Flop: (93.4 BB, 2 players) 9 8 J

Turn: (93.4 BB, 2 players) 4

River: (93.4 BB, 2 players) 5
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Old 03-14-2018, 12:54 AM   #2
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Vail, AZ, USA
Posts: 132
Re: AKo pre vs fishy overbet

Until I see more from this villain, I'm not opposed to folding here. If villain is a maniac, you'll get other chances.

To come to this conclusion, I ran a couple ranges.

First off, I guessed villain would 3! with 6% of his range (1/3 of his 18% raise stat):

Equity Win Tie
MP2 51.21% 43.91% 7.30% AcKd
CO 48.79% 41.49% 7.30% 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+

If this was truly his range, it's a clear call, but I'm not sure how many villains actually would 3! this broadly.

Next, I went with a range of QQ+, AQs+, AKo, but realized a lot of opponents like to play JJ & TT this way, so expanded the range:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 42.87% 30.56% 12.31% AcKd
MP3 57.13% 44.82% 12.31% TT+, AQs+, AKo

Finally, I thought about just JJ & TT:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 43.14% 42.94% 0.20% AcKd
MP3 56.86% 56.66% 0.20% JJ-TT

This is one of those cases where villain may be exploiting you, but until you see it over again, I'm not opposed to just folding my 3BB and catching him later when I know more about villain.
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Old 03-19-2018, 02:54 AM   #3
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: OTR
Posts: 7,953
Re: AKo pre vs fishy overbet

Nice hand.
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Old Yesterday, 06:15 AM   #4
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Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Straya'
Posts: 758
Re: AKo pre vs fishy overbet

I'm snap calling this so quick.

Villain is playing super loose (over the small sample), he's not got autorebuy on, he's just jammed over a raise instead of making a normal raise size - I'd say we're printing long term calling here.
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