Howdy. I was wondering if you guys would check one of the streets to avoid getting committed.

Villian was a standard tag. 13/9. My image was slightly looser.


888 Poker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 176.5 BB (VPIP: 17.82, PFR: 10.89, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 101)
BB: 99 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG: 50 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
UTG+1: 126.5 BB (VPIP: 55.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (MP): 85.5 BB
MP+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 12.90, PFR: 8.60, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 94)
CO: 182 BB (VPIP: 15.79, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
BTN: 123.5 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

fold, UTG+1 calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4.5 BB, MP+1 calls 4.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 3.5 BB

Flop: (15 BB, 3 players) T 5 A
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 8.5 BB, MP+1 calls 8.5 BB, fold

Turn: (32 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero bets 16 BB, MP+1 calls 16 BB

River: (64 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero bets 24 BB, MP+1 raises to 71 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 32.5 BB and is all-in

Hero shows A K (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 45%, Flop 4%, Turn 0%)
MP+1 shows 5 5 (Three of a Kind, Fives)
(Pre 55%, Flop 96%, Turn 100%)
MP+1 wins 166 BB


I only beat a bluff and should have folded.

Id not put the results up next time it'll probably colour peoples responses to one degree or another.

Why aren't you at 100bb?

Hitting TPTK OOP vs a set is always going to cost bb's. The good thing to keep in mind here is at least you'll get the reverse at some point.

Id probably class V as a nit myself. Not the tightest but on the nit spectrum.

There are two points in this hand I think where we can slow down depending on assumptions about Villain (doing so in real life is a the task, reading through a hand history doesn't do it justice).

1 given this V is tight what hands are calling the double barrel. By this point we've bet at all opportunities and sure a flop CB is expected but a double barrel will fold out a lot that we're beating. Does our hand fall into SDV after the flop call?

Q does Villain call a TCB with over 50% of hands we beat? If yes you did the right thing. Cold call flop 2B and FFCB are good to see what kinda range they get here with. FTCB and WTSD can tell s how sticky they get with top pair.

I have you slightly over 57% with V's continuance range off: TT,55,AQo,AQs,A5s,A2s,[50]AJo,AJs[/50]

2 the obvious shove. This is just horrible, not unexpected this player type will get here with some monster. This is just never worse than TPTK.

Pot odds
Pot Call Ratio %
144.5 32.5 4.45:1 18.36%

I don't think you're committed here. I don't think you did much wrong until the river call (maybe we could bet more on the flop). Only nits and passive types would get me to fold here. And if we can give V just 2 combos of anything we beat we can call. Its that close. I just don't think AQ is ever being shown.

Awesome. Thanks Gabe.

Yea if I had 100bb or more I wouldn't have felt as committed and probably would have folded. Especially since my river bet was actually a blocking bet. At this level only maniacs tend to river raise bluff. So I tend to do a blockingbet/crying call bet on the river then fold to a raise against a passive player.

It's interesting how you put the suited wheel aces into his pre flop calling range. Are 13/9 types really calling my open raise with A2-A5s?

On equilab I let him call my Cbet with Broadway hands that had a gutshot instead. Then I assumed he folded those on the turn to extra pressure.

What was most interesting is that my equity didn't change much throughout the streets (the turn and river didn't change anything) until he raised... Then I had zero equity against his river raising range. Up until the river raise he could have had AQ and AJ which I beat.

When he raises he only has sets and AT

I could have only have beaten a bluff. But I took the gutshot hands that missed on the turn out of his continuing range.

Bad call.


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Yeah I used my range in that scenario.

For random tight guy I’d probably assume: JJ-22, AQs-ATs, KJs+, QJs, AQo-ATo, KQo

Through flopzilla (I’d recommend getting it! It’s great) I had the same experience. You’re ahead all the way and charging right then the turn raise just kills it.




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I lean towards c/fing vs a nit in this spot, because they're checking back AJ+ and really only betting better hands. As played, river bet is okay if, and only if, you can fold to this raise...it's tough, given the stacks, but if the sizing is leaving you in this awkward spot, you need to be thinking about that on the flop and turn.

I would even go slightly smaller otr to get called by AQ more frequently, like 21bb. Easy fold to the raise, tagfish will not have a bluff here in 1 million years, even aggro players will rarely do this.