I played poker during the first poker boom, but almost entirely recreationally. I was up lifetime but over a pretty small number of hands and I mainly played double-or-nothing SnGs, so not many conclusions to draw there. The point is, I know the basics about being aggressive, playing relatively tight, etc.

I decided to try my hand at 2NL and 5NL cash games in May and have been yoyoing around even most of the time (+5 to -7 BIs). Funnily enough I'm about even in terms of BB/100 but down $30 because the first ~2k hands were at 2NL which I guess is easier. Over the last week I'm down 6 BIs and instead of chalking it up to variance I decided to have a look at the stats to see if I can spot and plug a leak.

Looking at my biggest losing hands this week shows an obvious pattern: 8 out of the "top 10" were good or great hands that lost to better hands (the other 2 were hands I walked away from before showdown with overcards or an overpair). I'd like to know if y'all think I should've gotten away from all/some of these hands and would appreciate any insight you might have. My own analysis is at the end of this post!

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HAND 1: NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
UTG ($10.28) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 23.8% | AGG: 36.4% | Flop Agg: 66.7% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 100% | Fold to 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 21]
EP ($14.01) [VPIP: 19.5% | PFR: 11.4% | AGG: 26.3% | Hands: 149]
MP ($5.12) [VPIP: 21.1% | PFR: 8.8% | AGG: 66.7% | Hands: 57]
HJ ($9.66) [VPIP: 41% | PFR: 12.2% | AGG: 40.4% | Hands: 157]
CO ($4.39) [VPIP: 37.5% | PFR: 17.5% | AGG: 35% | Hands: 40]
BTN ($7.86) [VPIP: 18% | PFR: 9.8% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 63]
HERO ($5) [VPIP: 23% | PFR: 15.3% | AGG: 46.6% | Flop Agg: 52.4% | Turn Agg: 43% | River Agg: 36.9% | 3-Bet: 8.2% | 4-Bet: 17.2% | Cold Call: 12.1% | Hands: 2055]
BB ($4.75) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 1.5% | AGG: 12.5% | Hands: 66]

Dealt to Hero: 9 9

UTG Raises To $0.15, EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.25, BTN Folds, HERO Calls $0.23, BB Folds, UTG Raises To $0.75, CO Folds, HERO Calls $0.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [2.36 effective]
Flop ($1.80): 3 3 8
HERO Checks, UTG Bets $1.50 (Rem. Stack: $8.03), HERO Calls $1.50 (Rem. Stack: $2.75)

Turn ($4.80): 3 3 8 5
HERO Bets $2.75 (allin), UTG Calls $2.75 (Rem. Stack: $5.28)

River ($10.30): 3 3 8 5 K



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HAND 2: NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
HJ ($9.25) [VPIP: 11.9% | PFR: 7.8% | AGG: 32% | Hands: 200]
CO ($5.47) [VPIP: 15.9% | PFR: 11.8% | AGG: 33.8% | Hands: 1537]
HERO ($5) [VPIP: 23.7% | PFR: 14.8% | AGG: 45.3% | Flop Agg: 46.9% | Turn Agg: 44.9% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3-Bet: 6.1% | 4-Bet: 5.3% | Hands: 13963]
SB ($8.85) [VPIP: 66.7% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 3]
BB ($3.48) [VPIP: 39.4% | PFR: 6.1% | AGG: 18.5% | Hands: 33]
UTG ($5) [VPIP: 15.6% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 22.2% | Hands: 65]
EP ($0.59) [VPIP: 64% | PFR: 16% | AGG: 40.6% | Hands: 26]
MP1 ($5.56) [VPIP: 15.9% | PFR: 7.5% | AGG: 26.3% | Hands: 373]
MP2 ($5.99) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 36.4% | Flop Agg: 20% | Turn Agg: 57.1% | River Agg: 40% | 3-Bet: 6.7% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 17.6% | Hands: 45]

Dealt to Hero: K K

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP1 Folds, MP2 Calls $0.05, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.15, SB Folds, BB Folds, MP2 Calls $0.10

Hero SPR on Flop: [13.11 effective]
Flop ($0.37): 3 3 Q
MP2 Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($0.37): 3 3 Q 5
MP2 Checks, HERO Bets $0.22 (Rem. Stack: $4.63), MP2 Calls $0.22 (Rem. Stack: $5.62)

River ($0.81): 3 3 Q 5 7
MP2 Bets $0.26 (Rem. Stack: $5.36), HERO Raises To $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $3.88), MP2 Raises To $5.62 (allin), HERO Calls $3.88 (allin)



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HAND 3: NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
EP ($6.42) [VPIP: 11.4% | PFR: 9.5% | AGG: 28.8% | Hands: 264]
MP ($6.28) [VPIP: 17.9% | PFR: 2% | AGG: 27.7% | Hands: 992]
HJ ($6.92) [VPIP: 40.4% | PFR: 16.5% | AGG: 36.7% | Hands: 110]
CO ($5) [VPIP: 7.5% | PFR: 5.8% | AGG: 25% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 18.2% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 1.8% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 362]
BTN ($1.24) [VPIP: 76.3% | PFR: 3.5% | AGG: 31.3% | Hands: 116]
SB ($5.49) [VPIP: 16% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 30.3% | Hands: 476]
BB ($3.51) [VPIP: 69.4% | PFR: 16.3% | AGG: 29.5% | Hands: 49]
HERO ($5) [VPIP: 23.7% | PFR: 14.8% | AGG: 45.3% | Flop Agg: 46.8% | Turn Agg: 44.9% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3-Bet: 6.1% | 4-Bet: 5.3% | Cold Call: 15.1% | Hands: 13964]

Dealt to Hero: Q Q

HERO Calls $0.05, EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Calls $0.05, CO Raises To $0.65, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $0.60, HJ Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.06 effective]
Flop ($1.42): 6 9 7
HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.71 (Rem. Stack: $3.64), HERO Calls $0.71 (Rem. Stack: $3.64)

Turn ($2.84): 6 9 7 7
HERO Checks, CO Bets $3.64 (allin), HERO Calls $3.64 (allin)

River ($10.12): 6 9 7 7 9



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HAND 4: NL Holdem 0.05(BB)

CO ($4.71) [VPIP: 16.8% | PFR: 8.1% | AGG: 26.8% | Flop Agg: 47.8% | Turn Agg: 15.8% | River Agg: 7.1% | 3-Bet: 8.2% | 4-Bet: 100% | Hands: 150]
BTN ($5) [VPIP: 15.9% | PFR: 11.8% | AGG: 33.8% | Flop Agg: 37% | Turn Agg: 34.4% | River Agg: 25.3% | 3-Bet: 4.4% | 4-Bet: 5.6% | Hands: 1537]
HERO ($5.89) [VPIP: 23.7% | PFR: 14.8% | AGG: 45.4% | Flop Agg: 46.9% | Turn Agg: 44.9% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3-Bet: 6.1% | 4-Bet: 5.3% | Hands: 13972]
BB ($6.43) [VPIP: 15.6% | PFR: 3.6% | AGG: 15.6% | Flop Agg: 16.4% | Turn Agg: 17.1% | River Agg: 11.5% | 3-Bet: 3.7% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 362]
UTG ($2.25) [VPIP: 39.4% | PFR: 6.1% | AGG: 18.5% | Flop Agg: 15.4% | Turn Agg: 12.5% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 33]
EP ($1.17) [VPIP: 64% | PFR: 16% | AGG: 40.6% | Hands: 26]
MP ($5.14) [VPIP: 15.7% | PFR: 7.3% | AGG: 26.5% | Flop Agg: 22.4% | Turn Agg: 25.8% | River Agg: 38.9% | 3-Bet: 2% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 382]
HJ ($10.01) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 36.4% | Hands: 45]

Dealt to Hero: 4 4

UTG Calls $0.05, EP Folds, MP Calls $0.05, HJ Folds, CO Calls $0.05, BTN Calls $0.05, HERO Calls $0.03, BB Checks

Hero SPR on Flop: [7.33 effective]
Flop ($0.30): Q 4 J
HERO Checks, BB Checks, UTG Checks, MP Checks, CO Bets $0.15 (Rem. Stack: $4.51), BTN Folds, HERO Calls $0.15 (Rem. Stack: $5.69), BB Folds, UTG Folds, MP Folds

Turn ($0.60): Q 4 J 7
HERO Bets $0.36 (Rem. Stack: $5.33), CO Calls $0.36 (Rem. Stack: $4.15)

River ($1.32): Q 4 J 7 8
HERO Bets $1 (Rem. Stack: $4.33), CO Raises To $4.15 (allin), HERO Calls $3.15 (Rem. Stack: $1.18)



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HAND 5: NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
UTG ($10.01) [VPIP: 19.5% | PFR: 17.1% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 41]
MP ($1.93) [VPIP: 15.8% | PFR: 15.8% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 19]
HJ ($3.78) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 21.4% | AGG: 37.5% | Flop Agg: 36.4% | Turn Agg: 42.9% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 50% | Fold to 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 42]
CO ($3.31) [VPIP: 62.5% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 60% | Hands: 8]
BTN ($5.41) [VPIP: 21.4% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 28]
SB ($4.72) [VPIP: 42.9% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 7]
HERO ($6.10) [VPIP: 23% | PFR: 15.3% | AGG: 46.6% | Flop Agg: 52.4% | Turn Agg: 43% | River Agg: 36.9% | 3-Bet: 8.2% | Fold to 3-Bet: 43.8% | 4-Bet: 17.2% | Hands: 2055]

Dealt to Hero: Q Q

UTG Folds, MP Folds, HJ Raises To $0.15, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Calls $0.13, HERO Raises To $0.50, HJ Raises To $1.65, SB Folds, HERO Calls $1.15

Hero SPR on Flop: [0.62 effective]
Flop ($3.45): 4 A Q
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $0.65 (Rem. Stack: $1.48), HERO Calls $0.65 (Rem. Stack: $3.80)

Turn ($4.75): 4 A Q 6
HERO Checks, HJ Checks

River ($4.75): 4 A Q 6 T
HERO Bets $1.48 (Rem. Stack: $2.32), HJ Calls $1.48 (allin)



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HAND 6: NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
SB ($5) [VPIP: 18.2% | PFR: 9.1% | AGG: 16.7% | Hands: 45]
BB ($7.03) [VPIP: 26.1% | PFR: 7.8% | AGG: 19.8% | Hands: 115]
UTG ($3.04) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 57.1% | Hands: 21]
EP ($4.41) [VPIP: 18.3% | PFR: 7.2% | AGG: 28.7% | Hands: 280]
MP ($3.20) [VPIP: 29.1% | PFR: 13.3% | AGG: 27.6% | Flop Agg: 31.2% | Turn Agg: 23.3% | River Agg: 25.4% | 3-Bet: 3.7% | 4-Bet: 15.4% | Hands: 623]
HERO ($5.10) [VPIP: 23.7% | PFR: 14.8% | AGG: 45.4% | Flop Agg: 46.9% | Turn Agg: 44.9% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3-Bet: 6.1% | Fold to 3-Bet: 52.5% | 4-Bet: 5.3% | Hands: 13972]
CO ($7.15) [VPIP: 8.3% | PFR: 6.8% | AGG: 37% | Hands: 703]
BTN ($11.63) [VPIP: 25.8% | PFR: 19.4% | AGG: 12.9% | Hands: 63]

Dealt to Hero: Q A

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP Raises To $0.15, HERO Raises To $0.40, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, MP Calls $0.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.22 effective]
Flop ($0.87): 9 T Q
MP Checks, HERO Bets $0.52 (Rem. Stack: $4.18), MP Raises To $1.55 (Rem. Stack: $1.25), HERO Raises To $2.58 (Rem. Stack: $2.12), MP Raises To $2.80 (allin), HERO Calls $0.22 (Rem. Stack: $1.90)

Turn ($6.47): 9 T Q 8

River ($6.47): 9 T Q 8 8



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HAND 7: NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
CO ($8.90) [VPIP: 32.9% | PFR: 15% | AGG: 13.3% | Flop Agg: 12.5% | Turn Agg: 14.3% | River Agg: 14.3% | 3-Bet: 2.2% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 30% | Hands: 142]
BTN ($2.45) [VPIP: 30.1% | PFR: 1.6% | AGG: 35.1% | Flop Agg: 34.9% | Turn Agg: 40% | River Agg: 28.1% | 3-Bet: 1.1% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 30.3% | Hands: 499]
SB ($5) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 12.5% | Hands: 24]
BB ($6.77) [VPIP: 11.9% | PFR: 6% | AGG: 15.4% | Hands: 67]
UTG ($7.94) [VPIP: 60.7% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 24.2% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 11.1% | River Agg: 37.5% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 50% | Hands: 28]
HERO ($5.71) [VPIP: 23.7% | PFR: 14.8% | AGG: 45.4% | Flop Agg: 46.9% | Turn Agg: 45% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3-Bet: 6.1% | 4-Bet: 5.3% | Hands: 13955]
MP1 ($24.45) [VPIP: 16.2% | PFR: 7.7% | AGG: 26.6% | Flop Agg: 23.4% | Turn Agg: 26.7% | River Agg: 35.3% | 3-Bet: 2.1% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 17.3% | Hands: 365]
MP2 ($9.38) [VPIP: 34.6% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 68.7% | Hands: 107]
HJ ($2.79) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 11.1% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 31.6% | Hands: 33]

Dealt to Hero: K K

UTG Calls $0.05, HERO Raises To $0.15, MP1 Calls $0.15, MP2 Folds, HJ Calls $0.15, CO Calls $0.15, BTN Calls $0.15, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $0.10

Hero SPR on Flop: [2.37 effective]
Flop ($0.97): T Q T
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $4.81), MP1 Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $2.30 (allin), UTG Folds, HERO Calls $1.55 (Rem. Stack: $3.26)

Turn ($5.57): T Q T A

River ($5.57): T Q T A 9



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HAND 8: NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
MP1 ($3.43) [VPIP: 53.3% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 60.6% | Flop Agg: 37.5% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 62.5% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 60% | Hands: 30]
MP2 ($5.55) [VPIP: 17.4% | PFR: 14.5% | AGG: 25.9% | Hands: 69]
HJ ($1.60) [VPIP: 32.8% | PFR: 7% | AGG: 27.5% | Hands: 129]
CO ($3.50) [VPIP: 45.8% | PFR: 8.3% | AGG: 36% | Flop Agg: 36.4% | Turn Agg: 28.6% | River Agg: 42.9% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 57.1% | Hands: 26]
BTN ($5) [VPIP: 11.1% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 9]
SB ($9.83) [VPIP: 76.3% | PFR: 3.5% | AGG: 31.3% | Flop Agg: 22.4% | Turn Agg: 34.8% | River Agg: 40% | 3-Bet: 2.8% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 75% | Hands: 116]
BB ($5.44) [VPIP: 22.2% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 28.4% | Flop Agg: 27.5% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 24.1% | 3-Bet: 7.7% | 4-Bet: 20% | Cold Call: 12.7% | Hands: 579]
UTG ($2.91) [VPIP: 12.8% | PFR: 5.8% | AGG: 33.1% | Hands: 695]
HERO ($5.82) [VPIP: 23.7% | PFR: 14.8% | AGG: 45.3% | Flop Agg: 46.8% | Turn Agg: 44.9% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3-Bet: 6.1% | 4-Bet: 5.3% | Hands: 13966]

Dealt to Hero: J J

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $0.15, MP1 Calls $0.15, MP2 Folds, HJ Folds, CO Calls $0.15, BTN Folds, SB Calls $0.13, BB Calls $0.10

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.37 effective]
Flop ($0.75): J 8 K
SB Checks, BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.30 (Rem. Stack: $5.37), MP1 Folds, CO Calls $0.30 (Rem. Stack: $3.05), SB Calls $0.30 (Rem. Stack: $9.38), BB Folds

Turn ($1.65): J 8 K 7
SB Checks, HERO Bets $0.99 (Rem. Stack: $4.38), CO Calls $0.99 (Rem. Stack: $2.06), SB Folds

River ($3.63): J 8 K 7 9
HERO Bets $2.06 (Rem. Stack: $2.32), CO Calls $2.06 (allin)



--------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's my own analysis:


HAND 1
99 vs KK. I called the 4bet preflop because I folded 77 to a 4bet in late position a few hands before and would've flopped a set. Perhaps this was the key mistake of the hand? When the flop came all undercards I felt folding would prevent me ever realising equity here. Turn comes another low card and I shove. A donkey move really, the guy raised and then 4bet UTG, then bet nearly the pot on the flop. It was pretty desperate to hope he had AK.

HAND 2
KK vs quads. This was just stupidity. As soon as he check-called on the turn I suspected he had trips or a full house. I thought he'd more likely raise with something like AQ or KQ. My plan was to raise his bet big on the river and fold to any reraise but for some reason I called. I really don't know why, I even said to my wife at the time "he must have a 3"...donkey play.

HAND 3
QQ vs AA. I called, planning to 3bet any raise, but his raise was so big I decided just to call. I didn't want to bloat the pot in case he had KK or AA (7.5% VPIP). When he went all-in on the turn, I was confused. I didn't think he'd do that with a 7 so I felt it was possible he was trying to get me off a hand with TT, JJ or AK. AA or KK was always a possibility but I felt I should call to avoid being exploited. I suspect vs such a tight player I should find a fold here?

HAND 4
Set vs straight. I think I played this too passively. A raise preflop wouldn't have helped this particular scenario but letting in 5-6 players wasn't a good idea. Raising the flop and shoving the turn would perhaps be a better overall strategy. That play would probably avoid this situation but also reduce profit vs AQ, KQ, QJ though. JJ and QQ are getting all my chips regardless.

HAND 5
Set over set. Cooler; I don't think I'm ever getting away here given he had 33% VPIP.

HAND 6
TPTK vs set. I 3bet, he calls. As with Hand 3, I didn't think he'd raise so big with a straight or set here, hence me putting him effectively all-in. When he raised the last 22c I knew I was dust but obviously had to call. Again, this is very similar to Hand 3 because in hindsight, with a possible straight and flush draw out there, it made total sense for him to raise big on the flop with a set.

HAND 7
KK vs trips. I raise, a bunch of players call. The flop wasn't great but I bet 3/4 pot hoping everyone would fold. Button raises all-in and I think for a minute whether he'd do that with a T. In the end I felt he was more likely to slow play trips here. In hindsight, with a possible straight and flush draw out there, it made total sense for him to shove here with a T. The all-in should've raised alarm bells given his fishy stats (30.1% VPIP, 1.6% PFR).

HAND 8
Set vs straight. I should've gotten away given any T or 2 spades were ahead on the river. I felt that if I checked, he'd put me all in regardless of what he had, so to take that decision away I went all-in myself. Maybe this was stupid. Would a check-fold be too nitty vs a 46% VPIP opponent here?

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Looking at the flip-side, my 5 biggest winning hands in the same time period were 3 river catches, one good river call vs a bluff, and a flopped set. Part of me feels that running into so many monsters is just unlucky, and I don't think all of these plays were terrible. However, putting it down to "coolers for days" is not a fair analysis either.

Overall, I think I need to tighten my post-flop play but I don't want to get too nitty where I fold everything but near-nut hands. I also think I need to contemplate the hand more before making such big calls or shoves, e.g. considering my opponent's range based on stats, considering what actually happened preflop, etc.

Any thoughts?

We're only 15 or so hands into today and I had a chance to try to fix this leak:

NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
BTN ($6.26) [VPIP: 48.6% | PFR: 8.6% | AGG: 60.6% | Hands: 35]
SB ($3.90) [VPIP: 22.3% | PFR: 12% | AGG: 30.1% | Flop Agg: 36.3% | Turn Agg: 22.1% | 3-Bet: 3.5% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 14.2% | Hands: 624]
HERO ($5.07) [VPIP: 23.6% | PFR: 14.8% | AGG: 45.3% | Flop Agg: 46.8% | Turn Agg: 44.9% | 3-Bet: 6.1% | Fold to 3-Bet: 52.5% | 4-Bet: 5.3% | Hands: 14010]
UTG ($5.85) [VPIP: 22.5% | PFR: 7.7% | AGG: 34.1% | Hands: 378]
EP ($2) [VPIP: 52.2% | PFR: 26.1% | AGG: 29.6% | Hands: 24]
MP1 ($2) [VPIP: 14.7% | PFR: 12.6% | AGG: 11.1% | Hands: 97]
MP2 ($3.96) [VPIP: 12% | PFR: 7.3% | AGG: 23.9% | Hands: 1796]
HJ ($5.62) [VPIP: 3.8% | PFR: 3.8% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 26]
CO ($5.94) [VPIP: 22.2% | PFR: 7.1% | AGG: 26.3% | Flop Agg: 24.2% | Turn Agg: 21.5% | 3-Bet: 0.5% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1107]

Dealt to Hero: A A

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP1 Folds, MP2 Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.10, BTN Folds, SB Calls $0.08, HERO Raises To $0.40, CO Calls $0.30, SB Calls $0.30

Hero SPR on Flop: [2.92 effective]
Flop ($1.20): J T 4
SB Bets $0.39 (Rem. Stack: $3.11), HERO Raises To $1 (Rem. Stack: $3.67), CO Folds, SB Calls $0.61 (Rem. Stack: $2.50)

Turn ($3.20): J T 4 Q
SB Bets $2.50 (allin), HERO Folds


I tanked for a bit and concluded that there were no hands I could beat. He had two chances to reraise preflop and he didn't, so KK is out of the question. Underpair wouldn't donk bet the flop. AQ/AJ/AT wouldn't call the flop raise. Best I could've hoped for probably is that he also had AA. I figure he made his straight or flush.

The run of losing with big hands continues nonetheless...

This is really difficult to process, you should post 1, 2 at most hands per thread.

But we'll go with it here.

Hand 1: Don't cold call preflop OOP. Much rather 4 bet / fold to 5 here. Your hand is basically face up as like 88-JJ, AQ.

Also, stats note but you have a huge VPIP/PFR gap. Seems like you're calling way too many opens. At the stakes you're playing, you should be doing almost no calling of opens.

Hello dude, in the 2nd hand your 3x raise pre is too small, you should raise 4x/5x. 3rd hand I prefer raise then limp, because it is to hard to balance this kind of strategy and if you only do that with premium hands its easy to your opponents get away. 4th, I liked the leading turn, but the size should be a little bigger, so many hands to extract/protect.

Thanks, interesting. So in that scenario you'd have 4bet (assuming to $0.65-$0.75) and then folded if UTG 5-bets? I think if he calls I still get stacked with that flop but if he 5-bets, I lose less money, so makes sense.

OK, thanks for the advice. I currently tend to call opens with hands like small pocket pairs, suited connectors, suited Aces. Do you think mostly 3bet or fold is better with those kinds of hands?

Something to note when looking at the stats: I consciously tightened up after the first few weeks of play so the overall stats aren't quite right. For example, in May I was at 24.5/15.7/6.9/4.2 (VPIP/PFR/3bet/AF) but in June so far I'm at 22.4/13.7/5.6/3.4. It's kinda interesting that I'm playing fewer hands but also less aggressive pre and post flop. I know that part of the reason my AF has dropped is because I'm bluffing less. I noticed I was just pissing money away by multi-barrelling unless I was against someone I could be sure was a reg, so I give up on the flop more often now.

Where should I be heading to do you think? 20/17? Lower?

Thanks for the advice.

2nd hand: I almost always raise 3x to try to disguise my hands. Surely if I raise to 4x/5x people know immediately I have a monster? How do I balance my range in this case?

3rd hand: Are there any scenarios where you'd limp UTG? I think it makes sense if at a crazy table where there's a 3bet every pot. I also like doing it with small pairs when set mining, but maybe this is too loose?

4th hand: I agree, I let him see the river too cheaply. I think at the time I thinking I didn't want to give my hand away by overbetting the pot and I wasn't too scared of the board (AK raises pre, maybe he limps with QJ but otherwise I'm thinking he just has a pair or T9/KT).

2nd: If you always use 4x/5x to isolate a limper your hand it is disguised, furthermore I think the limper won't fold even for a 5x, in this case.

3nd: About limping in EP I read this in another post:
"The problem I have with a limping strategy from EP, even to fish exploit, are

1) the rake: limping is the most costly line you can take. You’re basically guaranteeing that rake will be paid in the hand.
2) wide ranges: just because we make our set, doesn’t mean our opponents will have anything to justify our preflop investment. How often do you flop a set 3 way, bet the flop small and turn medium and they just fold their hand? Happens quite a bit.
3) extra money spent: a common thing I hear people say is that if you don’t hit a set, you don’t invest any more $. But what if you limp, HJ raises, you call, flop 732. Are you folding? You shouldn’t be, you have the backdoor straight draw and second pair to the board which is frequently the best hand right now. But you’re also OOP, so you call flop and now you have no idea what the hell you’re at for the remainder of the hand. What if he checks back the turn J and bets the 6 river for example? There will also be a lot of run outs where we get bluffed off."

I don't like limp utg. Even at an aggressive table, if you have a premium hand in a table with aggressive players I think starting to build the pot is better, after all if someone 3bets you, is a good thing.

You need to work on some fundamentals. Overall there are three main areas I think your mistakes (and there are many) fall into:

1. Understanding the value of your hand given the particular situation (and overvaluing pretty but ultimately mediocre hands)
2. Trying to get tricky (ie slowplaying when it achieves nothing)
3. Bet sizing.

Whizzing through the hands....

Hand 1 (99): Fold preflop. Fold to the 4bet. Fold to the flop bet. Preflop you face a UTG open and a fishy-sized 3bet. You have a medium strength hand, but there's a very good chance you don't have the best hand right now. Moreover, you're out of position and will be for the rest of the hand. Moreover to that, UTG can still come over the top. Cold-calling 3bets is rarely a good play. Given the really small 3bet in this case I might actually be tempted to cold-call the 3bet if I was on the button. Not in the SB. You could cold-4bet which would at least give you the initiative but I think it's overly optimistic. Just fold. When UTG 4bets he is saying he has a stronger hand than you AND you'll still be out of position AND there are very few good flops for you. Just fold again. Now look at the flop. Ask yourself: how should that hand connect with your opponent? [Take 30s to think about this]. Answer: it shouldn't. He should never have a 3 in this situation, his range should be mostly overpairs (and better overpairs than your 99) and some high cards like AK. You check (probably the only correct thing you did in the entire hand) and then face a large bet. Small bets are the fashionable thing these days and a lot fo players would bet all their hands small here, but players who bet this large sizing are probably going to do it with their strong hands more often than their weak ones. Given the poor odds I think you can fold this. Turn...was this a value bet or a bluff? You said it was overly optimistic to hope that your opponent had AK. If you think there's a chance he had AK, why would you shove here? You will only fold out any bluffs that he might conceivably have.

Hand 2 (KK): raise larger preflop, you'll still get called. Flop comes Q33 - similar to the last hand but the situation is different because (1) the top card is a Q rather than an 8 so much more likely to connect with your opponent and (2) it's a single raised pot, rather than 4bet, so the ranges are much wider (particularly given your small raise). With that in mind...why would you want to check here? You will get called by a Q, called by any pocket pair, called by a 3, and any other hands will fold but wouldn't put any money in the pot anyhow. Your KK is a good hand but not completely invulnerable (would be annoying if an Ace hit the turn) and it wants to make money. This is slow-playing without a plan. Odd that your opponent doesn't bet the turn - most players would - but you now correctly bet and get called. River is a 7, opponent now leads - he has played the hand very weirdly - I actually don't completely hate your raise because it's hard to put the opponent on a range of hands given his limp-call, check, check-call, lead line although I would personally probably just call here. Whatever, when he jams this is a snap fold. This is the archetypal "Don't go broke with one pair" scenario.

Hand 3 (QQ): Don't limp preflop. Either the pot gets limped around and you end up with a pot without any money in it but extremely multiway, or someone raises and you then have to either limp-reraise or just call and lose the initiative OOP. You have a good hand so raise it. QQ is not a hand to get "tricky" with (very few hands are). You have a HUD, and an OMC-type raises very large. Draw your own conclusions what this is likely to mean. You call and he bets the flop large on a texture that is likely to favour a limp-calling range better than it does a raising range (but blind aggression when they hit a hand is now a nit plays). Calling here is fine. The overbet shove represents extreme strength and once again you have a pretty mediocre hand. Let it go.

Hand 4 (44): preflop complete is fine. Why check-call rather than check-raise? All sorts of drawing hands out there - there are plenty of bad turn cards - and you'll still get called by a Q, a draw and maybe a J. (There can easily be a QJ hand out there as well). In a limped pot you might just be better leading out on the flop to be honest, 6-handed there may be people with a semi-decent hand who are just too scared to bet. You mention JJ and QQ - nobody should have those hands here - this is a limped pot, only bad players limp those sorts of hands (see Hand 3 above). Check-call-lead is a weird line given the 7 shouldn't help you, but I don't mind it. River bet is fine, I think there are enough QJ hands in opponent's range to balance out the most obvious draw that hit - it's a limped pot, is this opponent likely to be limped in with T9 offsuit? If yes then this might just be a fold, if no/maybe then the odds are good enough that I probably call this, you still have a strong hand.

Hand 5 (QQ): SPR is so low that you're cheerfully getting the money in at some point, I probably just check-jam the flop but maybe the way you've done it is better, I dunno. Oh, and your preflop 3bet can/should be quite a bit bigger, like 80.

Hand 6 (AQs): Again you need to think about how this flop is likely to interact with your opponent. For me this is a check back. You face a check-raise which could be a-pair-plus or it could be a draw but why do you 3bet here? Yet again you have a medium-strength hand. Don't punt off your stack with a medium-strength hand. You can call the check-raise.

Hand 7 (KK): Raise bigger over a limper. "I bet 3/4 pot hoping everyone would fold." This is flawed logic. You bet because you want BETTER hands than your own to fold. You want worse hands to call! Unfortunately in a 6-way pot you will never get a better hand to fold; with 5 opponents there's a very good chance someone is sat on a T; and when you bet so large on such a dangerous board, you might even get someone to fold a hand like KQ which is an absolute disaster. This is a hand you want to play cautiously; if someone has a T you want to lose as little as possible, but if nobody has a T and someone has a Q then you want to make as much as possible. That requires subtlety. Your 3/4 pot bet is anything but. (Notice that the board is very draw-heavy as well but that you block one of the main draws, KJ).

Hand 8 (JJ): better postflop. Obviously a brutal river card for you. You say "I felt that if I checked, he'd put me all in regardless of what he had, so to take that decision away I went all-in myself" - again this is flawed logic if you think he has any bluffs but he should have no bluffs here. This is actually a little bit tricky because the one-liner, plus backdoor flush, means there are a lot of ways you are beaten. Opponent could have a lot of 2-pair hands (though you block KJ) but these will certainly check back. So for me it's a choice between bet and check-fold; never check-call because you are only going to be facing a straight/flush or a bluff and there aren't any bluffs. I probably check and hope that he checks back, but your bet isn't completely insane if you think he'll call enough with 2-pair and worse sets (but he should probably fold these).

Thanks for the analysis, moxterite. It'll take a while to digest all of that but your summary seems reasonable: over-rating hands without considering the situation, slow playing when draws are on the board, and betting too big/small. Bear in mind that quite a few of these happened near each other, so I was kinda thinking "they can't have it again, can they?" - this is obviously flawed logic and indicative of slight tilt, which I should try to overcome.

I think the biggest change I need to make is to slow down my decision making to really consider what my opponent(s) might have in a given spot more, before deciding what and when to bet.

I am still unsure about pre-flop bet sizing though: it seems most players open under 3x these days, whereas there seems to be a consensus in this thread that I should be raising much bigger, particularly in Hand 2. Is this primarily due to position? i.e. in EP raising big prevents too many players behind getting involved, and if a player has limped then 4-5x helps to isolate them, whereas in MP/LP opening say 2.5x is fine because there are fewer players behind?

Then there's 3-betting. Should this always be >4x? I went for 3.3x with Hand 5 (QQ), whereas moxterite suggested 5.3x.

3bet sizing depends on position (raise more from the blinds as it'll be harder to play postflop, so charge opponents more for the privilege) and also if there's a caller in between (a squeeze). "Normal" 3bet sizing is 3x the original raise size if you're in position, 4x original raise size if OOP, you can vary this a bit, more if there are other players in the pot. Again "standard" is generally about 3x plus one blind per limper ie 4x over one limper but I personally go larger.