Villain is from Poland and is 18/13 with an 8% 3bet after 89 hands so shaping up to be a reg

PokerStars - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $53.13 (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
SB: $53.14 (VPIP: 17.78, PFR: 12.22, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 92)
BB: $50.00 (VPIP: 17.48, PFR: 12.53, 3Bet Preflop: 3.82, Hands: 2,543)
Hero (UTG): $54.89
UTG+1: $66.68 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
MP: $50.00 (VPIP: 17.51, PFR: 14.37, 3Bet Preflop: 7.81, Hands: 680)
CO: $50.00 (VPIP: 26.47, PFR: 26.47, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 38)

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has K K

Hero raises to $1.50, UTG+1 calls $1.50, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $1.25, fold

Flop: ($5.00, 3 players) 6 K 7
SB checks, Hero bets $3.20, fold, SB raises to $8.22, Hero calls $5.02

Turn: ($21.44, 2 players) T
SB bets $13.24, Hero calls $13.24

River: ($47.92, 2 players) 9
SB checks, Hero bets $31.93 and is all-in

River seems spewy, imho. You have some showdown value to check back.

Most likely I think he takes this line with offsuit broadway with qs/js, could have some sc but thats probably about 1 combo. You could have a reasonable bluffing range with AA/AK so he can't easily fold. Doesn't really matter what bluffs you choose here. TBH it seems like a bad spot to bluff just because you have so many AA/AK to bluff with, maybe if you think people are blindly nitty then you can bet here. Its possible you have sdv against AA or random spazz.

Your story is very consistent with having the As. This is definitely something I would only try against regs who can hand read and if I hadn't been splashing around recently. If they don't have some skill, they'll shrug their shoulders and call with Js8s. I have two fears against regs: 1) if they are thinking and tricky, they they may try a check-raise with the nut flush. If they have any time with you, you are probably going to come up reasonably aggressive and there really isn't too much you can call three barrels with if they are holding the nut flush. 2) Villain only needs to be right 28% of the time to make his call.

As played, you need the villain to fold 39% of the time. Although I'd like more hands with the villain to see if he has any skill, he is going to be in the same shape as you when you make this bet and most villains aren't going to even remotely think of bluffing here. It's thin value, but I like this bluff as long as variance doesn't affect your game too much. If villain calls, make a note, try to make a couple suck bets with other villains, and make sure to shove against him with the nuts for a while.

Thank you for the responses. I didn't post my thoughts about the hand at the time as I wanted to hear what others had to say first. It's interesting that nobody suggested getting it in on the flop. I played it conservatively after he raised, really hoping to hit one my my outs to put me ahead of the flushes for sure.

It was only when he failed to shove the river that I realised that he almost certainly didn't have the nut flush. I shoved in the hope that I could get a smaller flush to fold, realising that my play so far was consistent with AsX. As soon as I did that villain wrote something in Polish in the chat* and then folded immediately.

I was subsequently wondering what he could have had and I think the most likely scenario is that I was bluffing with the best hand at the end. That in turn made me wonder if there was any value in simply getting it in on the flop. The fact that nobody suggested that course of action makes me think that I was perhaps suffering from some results-oriented thinking.


* naturally I googled the term and I got a translation of "mother of a whore"

A whole lot of words ITT. Surely all that needs to be said is 3bet/call flop?!