I have villain tracked at 16/15 with an 8% 3bet after 96 hands so might likely a reg


PokerStars - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $47.48 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
UTG+1: $73.14 (VPIP: 13.40, PFR: 10.82, 3Bet Preflop: 1.39, Hands: 194)
MP: $52.03 (VPIP: 18.00, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.51, Hands: 102)
MP+1: $18.45 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
Hero (MP+2): $50.00
CO: $55.77 (VPIP: 14.46, PFR: 9.64, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 83)
BTN: $91.71 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
SB: $65.53 (VPIP: 20.31, PFR: 14.06, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 64)
BB: $57.30 (VPIP: 16.02, PFR: 14.72, 3Bet Preflop: 1.11, Hands: 232)

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has J Q

fold, fold, MP raises to $1.04, fold, Hero calls $1.04, fold, BTN calls $1.04, SB calls $0.79, fold

I think there are arguments for 3betting or flatting here. Possibly 3betting is better given that flatting opens up the squeeze opportunity to the players playing behind.

Flop: ($4.66, 4 players) 7 7 K
SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $2.50, fold, fold, MP calls $2.50

I think this is standard enough. Flop is fairly dry and we block a lot of flush draws so I elect to make the bet slightly smaller

Turn: ($9.66, 2 players) J
MP checks, Hero bets $6.00, MP raises to $15.50

I was surprised to see villain check-call preflop. It just seemed like an odd line to take in a multi-way pot. Villain has a 33% c-bet flop stat over 6 hands so perhaps he's more comfortable playing this way. I'm not sure if I should have just taken the free card here on the turn. I've gained some showdown value although I can't see what I'm beating that he has played this way. His turn raise seems very strong. That J doesn't seem like the card that could have helped in that much unless he has JJ or KJ. Perhaps he's slow playing KK but his preflop raise was on the small side. Yeah I was thoroughly confused here. I'm getting really good odds to draw to the flush but is it a reverse-implied odds situation?

What's the point of the turn bet? I dig the flop bet as we'll take it down pretty often, can fold out 88-TT (sometimes) and have decent equity when called unless someone has exactly Kx (and even if they take a check-call line with Kx, we have position).

On the turn, we're beating 88-TT now and I think we have a better shot getting a bet out of them on the river, as opposed to the turn. Kx is probably not going away on the turn, but might on the river. Can't really say for sure. We get some get some value from other heart draws, but given that the Kh, Qh, and Jh are all accounted for, we're really looking only at AT/A9/T9/89 (and those last few are questionable). I'd much prefer a turn check here and let our position do some work.

This c/r is weird as well and it seems unlikely that this is AK/KQ. 6 combos of KJ....one combo of JJ...3 combos of KK...it's all weird...and again, the fact that we have JhQh means he has fewer semibluffs. AhTh picked up equity, but those probably bet flop some % of the time. I never fold this at the table, tbh, but just looking at everything now, this looks like a fold.

That's a fair question. To be frank my thinking in-game was "I have picked up some more equity however my showdown value is still relatively low as it stands so I'm going to bet again as there may be some fold equity there that i don't want to miss out on. If he folds great. If he calls and I hit one of my flush/2-pair/trips outs then great too"

That's not terribly sophisticated and completely neglects a range for villain, never mind a range for myself.

That's totally reasonable, and the beautiful thing about posting in these forums and discussing hands off-table is that we have more time to discuss these nuances. Then when we encounter spots like this again (and of course, we will), we have some new questions or wrinkles in our thought process that help us consider/weigh the merits of each action and pick accordingly.

3-bet or fold pre, rake is too high
otf is fine, OTT both checking and betting are fine, I like checking back more often, but vs stations it's fine to go for some extra value

vs nits it's a fold OTT, vs good regs it's a call

you have tons of SDV there, man

Thanks for the response. Can you elaborate on the above please and what kind of decisions this factors into?

Is this because you think that the reg might have some bluffs in his range that
he played in this manner?

Hey man how’s things going up there?

I’d say pre flop is fairly loose. I’d like a 3B. From CO I’d call but HJ is leaving too many squeeze possibilities in there.

Once checked to on the flop the bets fine.

On the turn the bet seems hopeful. I’m not sure what calls the flop bet considering V’s CB stat that we fold out that’s ahead of us and get to call that our pair beats. Take the free card ip with pretty secure SD value and good draw.

The c/r really warps they’re range. We’re getting great implied odds to hit a heart but vs a 2B caller and having 77 on the board does V really do this without a nutty hand.

If players a thinking opponent then a call could be justified long term, you don’t often have AK here and really can’t call with Kx.

More likely this bets to set up a very nice size pot to shove on the river and force you’re well repped TP+ into a pot odds call. I’d imagine V is nutted often here.

For what it’s worth.


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Yeah I think I'd agree with all of that, thank you

When you 3-bet and get folds, you don't pay rake, now if you flat, you will always pay rake, in 50z you should almost always look for a 3-bet or fold strat over a calling strat. The only situations where calling becomes better than 3-betting are when there are fish behind or the RFI is very nitty, but vs nitty regs you should just fold JQs. Also with very aggro squeezers behind, you should avoid cold calling a range that's made of only marginal hands without strong hands to back-raise and punish him.

yes, a nit is always x/r there with a range that crushes you, he either has a huge draw or a fullhouse/quads which you're dead against, vs a good regular he could be valuebetting overpairs/bluffing wider, which makes it more a call than a fold.

flat > 3b
check ott

as played i fold, bad equity vs bluffs and crushed by value range.


good hand though made me think about range for playing this as pfr